What Are the Pure Toss-Ups for the 2020 Presidential Election?



hey guys we're back today's video today a Sunday June 9th 2019 and today we're gonna be looking at the true toss-up states in the year 2020 so we all know there's a presidential election coming up and obviously it's going to be the center point of the mainstream media but they are definitely going to overhype a number of states and call them swing states when in reality they may not be so close states include states like Texas or possibly even Utah like we saw in 2016 which ended up being discussed a lot but didn't actually narrow down when it came down to it being a very close race now that was 2016 I mentioned Texas Texas definitely can narrow up in 2020 but again there are a number of states here that are typically considered toss-up states that may not actually be toss-ups in 2020 and there may be a few new states that we didn't see in 2016 that are gonna be considered close or maybe the same ones you're expecting regardless today we're just gonna be going through all of the toss-up States and there actually aren't that many that I believe are going to be the true toss-up States for 2020 so jump right into this by characterizing all of the safe democratic states we know a number of states in the Northeast same thing every single video same thing goes for the Republican Party but we'll go ahead and get to that in a moment I think I just accidentally characterized Maryland as likely but there we go New Mexico would be safe in this scenario would still be considered safe for the GOP they have a number of states up across the red wall here the thing is I'm not going to I'm going to put all of the toss-up states that are considered toss-ups in every single almost every single election prediction asked osip's right now and then we'll actually go into the ones that are truly toss-ups so that leaves a number of states I think that actually might be it 125 electoral votes for Donald Trump and 187 for the Democratic Party so if you're looking at the map right now there are more toss-up electoral votes than democratic or republican electoral votes and that really says something about a number these toss-up states however if we're looking at them very closely a number of these states aren't actually toss-up States they're just not safe and you know that's how I like to start off my videos because that way you guys can see this safe likely lean then tilt when it comes down to the 22 presidential election coverage the mainstream media is probably going to cover every single one of these states possibly in detail when in reality not all of them need to be covered if we see states like Maine and states like Texas up there in the toss-up section we definitely think that way they could be within one to two percent or in reality they're probably gonna be around five six percent and just closer than they were in 2016 or closer than they were in 2012 or 2008 what she does say something about the state particularly but a number of these states aren't toss-ups if you look back in the 2016 presidential election a number of those predictions the ones that did not fill in the map completely they had a number of toss-up electoral votes I believe Fox News didn't even have a presidential election winner from 2016 which in hindsight was considerably smart but compared to every other news network didn't really make sense but if we're looking at the numbers they had a number of toss-up electoral votes and the media really likes to do this because it's a way for them to play safe if Texas goes to the GOP or the Democratic Party putting in the toss-up column doesn't say that they declared a winner just that it would be close and close is really up to whatever it's defined as it could be five to six percent there in comparison in quotations in comparison to a previous election or it could just be close within less than 1% like Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so again it's really really subjective but if we're just looking at a number of these toss that quote/unquote toss-up states they may not actually be real toss-up states so let's go ahead and characterize some of these non toss-up states and put them in the respective party's column so the first thing I would start off was with off with is Virginia I know they're not gonna call Virginia early in the evening because all the Republican counties come in with their results first but that one's probably going to end up at the end of the day as a likely state for the Democratic Party that's pretty much expected it's the state of Virginia now a democratic state which is really interesting because it wasn't just a couple of elections ago looking at Colorado another state that you could characterize as likely again it could narrow down to lean but it's still not one of the true toss-up areas of the country it's not going to be where most of the money is being spent on we'll get to that in just a moment so Colorado would probably be a likely state in favor of the Democratic Party so that puts the Democrats at 209 electoral votes there is another area where the Democratic Party is probably going to excel in that is in the state of Maine Maine at large and Maine's first District are probably going to go for the Democratic Party that's the two three electoral votes actually that are not going to be considered really toss-ups in my opinion from the state of Maine they're not gonna be safe well Maine's first will be safe but I don't see these this area as being a pure toss-up statewide even though was closer in 2016 I believe those 3% for Hillary Clinton looking at this 2020 field they definitely are going to do a lot better then Hillary Clinton did in 2016 really depends on the candidates to be honest with the leading ones right now like Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are definitely going to do better than Hillary Clinton and that puts the Democrats at 212 electoral votes Donald Trump still at 125 but Minnesota I think is another say that is probably going to go into the likely column for the Democratic Party that one's probably already in favor of the Democratic Party going into the selection of course it can eventually flip if things do change bedazzled right now that is a democratic state so on to the Republican states here's a big one Texas this one is probably not going to be a toss-up State it definitely is going to either be lean or likely for the GOP unfortunately for the Democratic Party even if they get something like better or work here it's probably not gonna go to the Democrats this is a state that historically Republican the base that votes is still Republican and just because it narrowed in a midterm election season and a Democratic wave year does not exactly correlate to it being a democratic win in the presidential election if you look at 2010 huge wave year for the GOP picking up 63 states in the House of Representatives 2012 rolls around the Democratic Party wins with 332 electoral votes to 206 so again not always 100% showing or an indication of what's going to show in the next presidential election so Donald Trump spikes up to 163 another state I was actually considered the state of Georgia as a likely state could narrow down into the lean column I definitely see that argument but as of right now I would say that this state goes into the likely column for Donald Trump again things can change Georgia could be focused on a little bit more especially by someone like Joe Biden but as of right now I would say this one is a pretty solid 5% in favor of the GOP can keep in mind a lot of these Georgian voters did not vote for Donald Trump just because they didn't like Donald Trump it seems actually those rewarding is doing well in that state which is really interesting to me considering how many people really did not like him in 2016 if we look around there are other states that are gonna be can now considered lean and we're gonna go into that now so the first I'll start with the democratic states actually the first democratic state that would actually consider lean would be the state of New Hampshire there are a number of things that I do think are going to come back to haunt Donald Trump here the Democratic Party is amazing at bringing up you know things in the past so the Republican Party but I guess both parties actually good it amazingly because it definitely in takes down a number of candidates and their numbers but if we're looking at the state of New Hampshire I think that one's going to be a lean Democratic State not so much a toss-up but again when you're a lean state you can become a toss-up but as of right now this is the way that it's directing when I'm talking about a toss-up state that means they really could go either way but this one is probably well at least most of the time in favor of the Democratic Party if we look over the state of Nevada as well historically a democratic state we can expect that one to go as well for the Democratic Party but again things can change typically Democrats are underestimated in the state of Nevada which is why I do think that the state of Nevada is actually going to go for the Democratic Party they also have another state in their column to say to Michigan I think could narrowly be leaning in favor of the Democratic Party at this point if you look at Donald reporting in fact all three of these states he's underwater but Michigan was the narrowest of all the elections there and if you look a lot of these candidates are doing very well in the state of Michigan if you look at polling data Biden +12 Sanders plus 12 not so much in Pennsylvania in Wisconsin it's narrower still a lead for the Democratic Party but again it's still narrower and things definitely do change a 12-point lead doesn't equivalent to a talk it does not equivocate to a 12 point margin on my map here it's a lean margin even though people like Biden and Sanders are leading by double digits so again it's not always the same as what you might see in the polling data but for the GOP they do have some lean GOP states that are I would not consider pure Tasos that is the state the first date would be decided in North Carolina I think this one actually could be a lean GOP state I really don't see this one coming a toss-up for 2020 I've were looking at the numbers here just historically again it's a Republican state it was very hard for Obama to flip it back in 2008 at 14,000 votes to the state of North Carolina and then went right back to the GOP in 2012 and 2016 yes it could get close but as of right now I'm seeing this one as a lien GOP state along with actually we're looking around Nebraska's second district would be a lien GOP district that one could actually go into the likely column but as of right now I would see this one as a lien district Maine's second district still as lien just based off the margin from 2016 it isn't looking the best for the Democratic Party to rebound by that big of a margin but again if you look at the Obama to trump margin it was definitely a drastic change but as of right now I think Trump's hold on there really depends on the candidate but as of right now would be slightly in favor of the GOP so if you look these are the remaining toss-up states this is a total of 94 toss-up electoral votes down from 200 something you know Wisconsin Pennsylvania Ohio Iowa Florida and Arizona though it may look a little interesting if you just look at the rest of the states it definitely doesn't make a lot of sense those two Rust Belt states show the best for the dummer for Donald Trump even though they may not be favorable of him or showing him leading in the polls they still are doing the best room there and if you just take a look at the difference between the margin and the 2016 data again you have to factor that in as well Ohio and Iowa have definitely narrowed down in terms of support for the president so that one is going those two states are gonna move back into the toss-up column from previously being likely Republican states Florida though I'm showing a lot of tendencies in going in favor of the Republican Party after further analysis I've concluded that the state of Florida is going to be a pure toss-up state even though it may tilting in favor of the GOP as of right now I'd actually say it's fair game for anyone along with Arizona I think this one is the one that is the least expected out of the rest of these five other states but Arizona I do think as a pure toss-up at this point in time even though it used to be a safe in GOP state just two elections ago so thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

41 Responses

  1. I disagree with a handful of states:

    1) As a native Floridian, I say once again that Florida is much more reliably conservative than people understand. I’d personally categorize it as Likely GOP, but Tilt GOP would be fair game.
    2) Arizona is still known for its conservative politics. I’d personally categorize it as Likely GOP, but Tilt GOP would be fair game.
    3) Ohio hasn’t show the signs of pushback that the other rust belt states have shown. They’ve stayed mildly conservative. I’d also put them at Likely GOP.
    4) I’d argue that Virginia and Colorado are Safe Democrat.

  2. I disagree about Iowa and Ohio, I see those two states really affected by Trumps tariff war with China, along with Pennsylvania as a possible democratic win. That small margin of his prior supporters I’m very sure you’ll see deflecting from him completely due to Trumps tactics with trade. If any candidate would be to take Castro as his VP that would pull strongly with many of the Latino votes especially Texas and Arizona which Castro is confident in winning against Trump.

  3. I live in a mid-size town in Minnesota that is heavily effected by the opioid epidemic, over the past 7 years 18 million doses of opioids have been shipped into into a city of 20,000. We are proud people and the president’s “drug infested den” remarks about a state that faces a very similar problem as my community really have caused us to lose a great deal of respect for him, and if a democrat is able to strike that very powerful chord then I believe my community and hundreds of other communities across the rust belt have the potential to effect history. In contrast if President Trump can somehow dig himself out of the self created hole then I believe he’ll win the presidency. I honestly think that Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, or Tim Ryan would be best suited for the task of hitting that chord on its head. If the democrats do that and nominate a progressive to solidify the base, there chances of victory in 2020 would be on the better side.

  4. No way he will be able to pick up 6 out of 6 swing states- even if he picks up 4 he will not win the electoral college – he better stop tweeting and get to work. The end of the GOP

  5. Coattail or downballot effect!!!!!!! what in the h*** is coattail effect!!!!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!! please!!!!! explain it to me!!!!!
    coattail effect!!!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!

  6. What do you call that a stronger candidate run for office at the top of the ticket could affect voters and help other candidates win further down the ballot at the same party in the election called what!!!!!! coattail effect?

  7. Please, i wanna explain about coattail effects or downballot effects in 2020 presidential election!!!!!!
    this time in 2020 cycle!!!!!!!! i will argue that republicans won't ever ride on trump's coattails!!!!!!

  8. Why is Montana not a Toss up State or a Blue State. It has a Dem Governor and historically has voted blue and red for both Representatives and Senators.

  9. i'll be happy!!!!!! let me tell you!!!!! if democrats controlled all three branches of government in 2020!!!!!!! that means america will be back to normal!!!!!! and i'll be like yes!!!! ahhhh!!!! it's a relief!!!!!!!! i'll say democrats will ride on whatever coattails it is
    either, sanders!!!!!! biden!!!!!!!! and warren!!!!!!!. democrats rode on warren's coattails!!!!!!!! democrats ride on biden's coattails!!!!!! democrats ride on gabbard's coattails!!!!!!!!!! democrats also ride on yang's coattails!!!!!!! democrats rode on
    sander's coattails!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on bullock's coattails!!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on harris's coattails!!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on klobuchar's coattails!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on delaney's coattails!!!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on hickenlooper's coattails!!!!!!
    democrats ride on swalwell's coattails!!!!!!!!! democrats rode on ryan's coattails!!!!!, tim ryan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    democrats also ride on bennet's coattails!!!!!!!! democrats ride on booker's coattails!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on gillibrand's coattails!!!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on o'rourke's coattails!!!!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on inslee's coattails!!!!!!!!!!
    democrats ride on messam's coattails!!!!!!!!! democrats also ride on williamson's coattails!!!!!!!!!!! democrats ride on moulton's coattails, democrats ride on buttigieg's coattails!!!!!!!! and finally democrats ride on de blasio's coattails!!!!!!!!!!!!!! how about that!!!!!!!!! everybody say coattail effects!!!!!!!!
    coattail effects!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. The funny thing is, in 2018, even though Corey Stewart had a large lead due to the fact that the first few counties that were reported were Republican. Yet, they still called it for Kaine. So, I think that CNN, and MSNBC, and many other networks would probably call it pretty early. Especially if the nominee was a moderate.

  11. coattail effect!!!!!!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!!!! downballot effects!!!!!!!!!!! downballot effects!!!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!!! downballot effects!!!!!!!! downballot effects!!!!!!!!! downballot effects!!!!!!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!! downballot effects!!!!!! downballot effects!!!!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!!!!! coattail effect!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!

  12. again!!!!!!! shout!!! chant!!!!! and repeat after me!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!
    downballot effect!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!!
    downballot effect!!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!! downballot effect!!!!!!!! LMFAO!!!!! LOL!!!!!HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!! ya don't darn know what downballot effect mean?

  13. everybody shout!!!! repeat after me!!!! coattail effects!!!!! coattail effects!!!!!!!! coattail effects!!!!!!!! coattail effects!!!!!!!!
    coattail effects!!!!!!! coattail effects!!!!!! coattail effects!!!!!!!!! coattail effects!!!!!!!

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