The First Look at the 2020 Senate Elections | Prediction + Analysis

Maurice Vega

45 Responses

  1. Sorry guys, but when the Dems were asked if their healthcare would cover illegal immigrants and ALL OF THEM raised their hand, that to me was ball game, Donald Trump wins 2020 and it'll not be anywhere close

  2. These subscribers decided "elections" are a totally worthless tool to predict elections. They are not a fair sample of the electorate, and are worth disregarding. You have even said that your followers are mostly Democratic. Take ME for example. I am retired now and I live in this state for part of the year.I know that Susan Collins is pretty popular here. She will not win by a "tilt" margin when she won a blowout in 2008 which was a Democratic BLOWOUT!

    Kansas is not going blue anytime soon. Neither is Texas. If anything, What we've seen is the Dems are (even with high voter turnout 51% in 2018) are running out of voters. Look at FL, GA and TX.

    MI, CO, NH, NM, VA and NM honestly depend on the Presidential election results. Keep this in mind, Trump has GREAT coattails on Senate races. In 2016, all the Senate races matched the Presidential results, Obviously the 2018 midterms, and the Alabama special election (No Trump endorsement killed that one).

    Although I will concede that you are likely right about McSally. She is an empty uniform and 12% of AZ GOP voters chose Sinema. Honestly I can't blame them after McCain and Flake's temper tantrums.

  3. If Alabama Republicans nominate Moore again, Kansas republicans nominate Kobach, and Michigan Republicans don't nominate John James I might have to pull a Justin Amash and dip.
    And if Chris Sununu doesn't run in NH that's a missed opportunity.

  4. People need to remember it’s a presidential year and that every single senate seat in 2016 went the same way as the president.
    So Kentucky and Montana, no matter how good the Democrat candidates are, are almost surefire GOP seats. Same applies to Colorado and Alabama, which are almost definite Democrat and GOP pickups respectively

  5. Alaska is not safe, Dan Sullivan is only up by low single digits (or tied) in the only poll conducted so far and his approval ratings are not outstanding. He managed to win by only 3 pts. last time so he's far from safe and will likely squeeze out a narrower victory than Mitch McConnell.

  6. I agree on everyone but AZ, AL, and NC. I think AL and NC will go Republican by 5 or more. AZ I believe at this point McSally will put it out with a very narrow win. MI is the only state that should be competitive for Democrats.

  7. the map is difficult for the democrats but not impossible. if kansas Kobach and alabama moore are the gop candidates. then these are extra pick-up options for the democrats. I think Collins will lose this time. her moderation is also not real and the voter sees that. I see net gain 3-4 for dems. only it is early in the season

  8. Kris Kobach just announced he would run for the Kansas Senate seat, so I believe if the democrats bring in a moderate candidate then I believe the democrats would take the seat.

  9. I think Michigan and Montana will be closer than we're expecting, but I still think the incumbents will win. I definitely think the GOP will flip Alabama and the dems will flip Colorado. Trump better get campaigning in all of those states. Kentucky too, Mitch McConnell is pretty unpopular (I wish he would retire so another republican could step in, I'm so tired of him).

    And speaking of Trump, he'd better quit talking about McCain and then campaign heavily in Arizona if he wants to hold on to them. Trashing their deceased, four decade-serving, Vietnam veteran senator was not a smart move if he wants to keep their vote.

  10. I am glad Kansas is getting some spotlight here. Last year I did research over the population in KS,–I attend Baker University in KS–and I found that KS is growing in urban areas, but also moving democratically. I expect a democrat to win and for them to vote more democratic in 2020. Basically, don't sleep on us. I'll see if i can link my presentation too.

  11. Idk if I would put it past Alabaman base voters to buck the party and go for Moore. After all, Trump campaigned hard for Rep. Strange (re. "Big Luther") and Moore still won out. Doug Jones' seat is HEAVILY dependent on the presidential candidate. Another year of strong African American turnout could put him over the edge if a weaker (ie not sec of state or Sessions) candidate wins the primary. If Moore wins the primary I see a slightly less narrow path for Jones. Honestly I think he has a better shot at a hold than Dems do at a NC or GA pickup.

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