The 2020 Presidential Election Based on Trump's Approval Ratings



hey guys welcome back today's video today is Wednesday July 17th 2019 and today we're going to be looking at the 2020 presidential election based off of Donald Trump's approval rating in the year 2020 obviously this is the most recent approval rating that we have right now and that's the one I'm going to be using that is going to be the June 2019 morning consult poll and the reason why were using the morning council poll number one is because it is the one of the few pollsters actually that does statewide I guess polling data which means that it pretty much can show us how each state feels about Trump which collects into an overall average nationwide I just think that it is pretty interesting to cover you know typically I don't go through this as often as I used to but it always holds some very interesting results essentially just state by state we see a lot of things fluctuate and they're always just interesting to go through so we're gonna go ahead and just pay attention to a number of these states because a lot of them are swing states in 2020 and as you can see on the right a lot of them doesn't don't necessarily have a favorable view of the president at this point a lot of these safe Republican states which are definitely going to be safe Republican states when it comes down to the election don't necessarily have the strongest grip for Donald Trump compared to where it used to be and the good thing about this interactive tools that has a slider from where we started off back in April not April we did start off in January for some reason it's not let me go there but let's say this is the earliest data that we have we have a net approval of six in New York seven in Pennsylvania ten in Ohio you know solid in Wyoming sada in Idaho I mean he was just doing extremely well nationwide they may need a positive of Wisconsin positive in New York first of all that's definitely a gain for Donald Trump he had it more in New York than in Virginia 16 in Texas 13 in Arizona and then as the months went on it's slowly dipped now he definitely had a low point around this time when he was negative in Florida Utah you know number of these states but definitely rebounded 2018 elections came around to rebound it a little bit after that and now we're at this point we're pretty much seeing an exact replica typically around I guess around election day I guess whatever elections come up 2018 2017 possibly 2019 avoiding goes up but as of right now Donald Trump is pretty much disapproved of in every single state that currently has a red shade and approved of in the states that have green shades now typically I started out every single video by filling in the safe Republican and safe democratic states we can for one fill in the safe democratic states because I will be doing this by margins or again as a negative 18 Washington's negative 28 California is negative 29 pretty much all the solid red states are negative states in the safe margin Illinois joining them I believe Hawaii as well that's five electoral votes in the Democratic column I don't know why Illinois moved over DC of course Maryland let me check on Delaware I don't actually think no not Delaware New Jersey surprisingly so 15 or more is safe Maine is not New Hampshire is that does not surprise me too much he doesn't seem to like to New Hampshire especially after the things he said probably still linger around there especially amongst Democratic voters now the thing about Michigan is Michigan in Minnesota both are characterized as safe for the Democratic Party obviously they are not going to be safe when it comes down to election day but as for another considered safe so I'm actually gonna leave them blank because I'm going to fill in all the typical safe states and then we're gonna go into the swing states even if they may be characterized safe by the end of the video I just want to get through all the expected safe democratic states but as of right now I guess that's pretty much it for Donald Trump's approval with the safe and democratic state some ones that we can characterize safe at least Alabama is a net 24 approval so that one would be safe for the GOP Wyoming and Idaho are safe for the GOP you know looking around it doesn't seem like there are too many states actually where they are considered safe per se so Mississippi Tennessee Kentucky Mississippi Tennessee Kentucky I'm pretty sure West Virginia yeah West Virginia I would be included as well I'm pretty sure these are actually the only safe States for Donald Trump based off approval a lot of these other states are not necessarily approving of Donald Trump too well so 46 electoral votes that are safe for Donald Trump 184 that are safe for the Democratic Party as of right now and then we're gonna work our way into swing states after we cover the remaining typical safe Republicans seats so well actually start off in Utah that's actually very surprising and that approval of to though he has been struggling in Utah for a little bit right now I did not expect it to be as low as two with his national approval rating rebounding I did not really expect it to be two but I guess that's just how it is Alaska three that puts it into the lean column we're looking a lot of these states Montana North Dakota would both be characterized as likely just because they are larger than five percent you go over to South Dakota and Nebraska to more lean States and that's also pretty interesting I'd never really expect South Dakota never really expect Braska to be lean States for the GOP just sort of a thing that I guess just happens with an unpopular Republican president but the thing is he's not too unpopular which is really surprising to me that these numbers stand Oklahoma is a likely State Texas will come back to Louisiana is likely fourteen percent though borderline safe really should be safe Arkansas six percents of that one's considered too likely as well Missouri's only 1% that is also pretty interesting I don't think these lean States are necessarily gonna get close in 2020 she said it is pretty interesting that as of right now they don't have the best approval of the president Indiana where vice president and my Pence is from you really would expect Donald Trump to do well there and then if we look South Carolina would be considered a likely Republican seat so that puts the Republicans at 126 the Democrats are still at 184 now let's go ahead and go through the swing state so we currently have 228 toss-up electoral votes for some reason I did not feel in Delaware I think that one is actually a likely Democratic state so let me go ahead and actually fill that one is likely but Delaware and that's the final likely Democratic I guess state that we need to cover actually why I don't know why I didn't cover Hawaii I thought I did puts the Democrats on 191 they're Republicans at 126 sorry about that my screen recorder cut out but I was talking about all of the democratic states that are considered safe 191 Republicans have won 26 we just filled in Delaware but now we can move into some of these swing states as I literally said before but some of these swing states have very very harsh attitudes towards the president if you're looking at the map on the right there's a lot of red in areas that were a lot of red back in 2016 and if we're looking at them right necessarily good for Donald Trump this time around it means that they currently disapprove of the president and some of these formers safe Republican states are likely Republican states are now turning against the president and I think that is pretty interesting we'll start off with the state of Texas because Donald Trump needs to get his numbers up to be completely honest with you at 126 is not a good look going into the swing states but Texas has a net approval for that's actually higher than Kansas Nebraska I think tying with South Dakota are higher than Utah hired the Missouri higher than Indiana I think that's pretty interesting higher than Alaska even though that one's probably going to be the closest out of them all once it comes down to election day but a positive reporting a 4% for the president but let's go ahead and go through some of these swing states so somebody's expected democratic states like Virginia actually only have a negative approval rating of about by 4% in Virginia I think that is pretty interesting considering a number of other states that we're all Republican states are not going in the same direction Colorado is going in that direction Colorado has negative 12/4 Donald Trump in the overall average Nevada has negative 8 that puts both of those states as likely democratic states putting the Democrats at 219 and Donald Trump at 164 if we're looking at some of these other states as of right now I guess you could say you could look at some these other expected democratic states like Maine which is that negative 11 that puts in the likely category Minnesota which is actually safe which i think is pretty interesting Minnesota typically isn't safe for the Democrats even though they have some strong candidates some election years even then it typically isn't safe as in 15 percent or more sometimes with star candidates they do go that way 2016 definitely was not the case Hillary Clinton almost lost Minnesota actually which I think was pretty interesting but that was the Democrats ahead of where Hillary Clinton was back in 2016 and now we can actually go through some of these other swing states like the Rust Belt negative 14 in Wisconsin that is definitely not a good look for the president that is something that he is going to definitely do to focus on the Rust Belt he is really lacking in you know Wisconsin actually is the second lowest Michigan is the lowest Pennsylvania is the least I guess disapprove but with some of these 2020 Democrats if they're winning in Wisconsin in Pennsylvania I starry Wisconsin in Michigan they're probably winning in Pennsylvania as well so Michigan about actually going to this a column which is really surprising Wisconsin would going to likely column and then Pennsylvania would put the Democrats over the top by going into the likely column so that puts the Democrats at 279 the Republicans at 164 that leaves a total of 95 toss-up electoral votes so a total of six states Arizona Iowa Ohio North Carolina Georgia and Florida and if we look to the right it doesn't spell out good news for the president either so we're gonna go ahead and actually go through Iowa and Ohio because they're two states that were likely States for the president back in 2016 Iowa more than Ohio what surprises me is that Iowa is considered a likely state so it was Ohio but Iowa by five more percentage points and that's pretty insane to me considering that Democratic candidates probably won't do too well in either of those two states as of right now they currently disapprove the president which means that they're probably looking for another candidate but the Democratic Party doesn't seem to be you know resonating with those voters it really seems like Donald Trump is going to win there again in both of those states even though it seems that this at this point in time that his voters there may be resentful of Donald Trump maybe regretting their votes to be honest with you that is very surprising to me that he is currently the favorite to win in both of those states but his approval rating is abysmal in both of those states as well if we're looking over at North Carolina and negative-3 approval rating that's a pretty interesting that's actually less than Virginia which is expected but only narrowly Arizona is negative seven so that goes into the likely column Virginia sorry not Virginia Florida is negative 3 as well joining North Carolina in the Democratic column and Georgia is a zero net approval rating I'm gonna give that one to Donald Trump by a tilt margin because that's how I personally would predict the race itself and I think I mean I just want to leave the map completely filled in but I think that's how it's going to end up in 2020 but that leaves 180 electoral votes for Donald Trump in 358 for the Democratic Party I believe this may actually be the 2008 map – Arizona replaced with Indiana both of which were worth the same amount of electoral votes 11 but I think that's pretty interesting so this would be the final electoral map based off Donald Trump's 2020 approval ratings I guess obviously with the June 19 numbers from morning consult I think this holds a lot of itching interesting result as we go into 2020 and look at some of those swing states but again I don't think that approval ratings are necessarily a too accurate indication of what we're gonna see in 2020 just that they're always interesting to go through the data and make an electoral map from them so thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

34 Responses

  1. Hey guys! Join the new LTE discord! https://discord.gg/T98UmgZ ! This is NOT a mock gov, but a place for vid suggestions & talking! 🙂 Thanks!

  2. After Epstein bail hearing tomorrow Trump and many powerful people are going down. Rumors are close to a dozens co conspirators of Epstien will be named by prosecutors in attempt to revoke his bail.

  3. 3 of 4 districts In Iowa went to Democrats in landslide. You really need to look at Iowa midterm numbers .

  4. We all know full well that Trump should worry about losing OH and IA. Don't say that Dems can't resonate with voters there. It just depends on the candidate.
    I have no problem considering MI and MN as safe blue, especially MN. Trump would be lucky to hold onto WI and PA, as those states probably won't go his way either.

  5. Sc is usually likely though I mean George W Bush is the last one to get more than 15 percent though trump got close

  6. Opinion polls don't mean anything unless compared to another person almost every politician is disliked more than liked

  7. In Florida, Trump is actually really liked because he has helped the economy. I know a lot of people who are registered Democrats in Broward and Miami-Dade counties (two of the most democratic counties in FL) say that they are gonna vote Trump even though they hated him last election.

  8. Morning consult ? The same pollster predicting in 2016 Trump would get 42 %, Gary 8 % and Stein 4 % ? Come on, who still believe in these fake polls ? https://morningconsult.com/2016/11/06/final-2016-poll-morning-consult/
    Read history : republican incumbents always do better in reelection camapigns, except Bush 1996 because of ross perot and 3 GOP terms. Trump is really underestimited

  9. I think it all depends upon which Democrat is chosen to run against Trump. If it is the wrong Democrat, people will stick with Trump.

  10. I'd say o'rourke or castro can be nominated, they can turn texas blue. #TurnTexasBlue2020 #Betomania #JulianCastro2020 #FlipTexasBlue

  11. This is why I care more about who becomes Dem nominee than who goes against Trump.
    No way Trump wins 2020 with his low approval rate.

  12. Now, if Andrew Yang was Trump's opponent, this could TRULY be the actual result! Seriously. So many people… Dems, independents and Republicans would all vote for a non-identity-politics-focused candidate like him. But the Democrats will elect someone divisive like Harris, Sanders, or Warren, and they cannot win all these states.

  13. Trump only got 45% of the vote in Utah in 2016. Why would you be surprised that he has low approval ratings. Utah voted 80% for Bernie Sanders so it makes sense that Hillary didn't win the seat but Utah could definitely be a swing state if a progressive candidate campaigned here.

    Utah is a very globalist and pro refugee and neither party really addresses Utah.

  14. I don’t think Trump will win in 2020, but it won’t be this much. I think he’ll still carry Florida, NC, and probably Arizona but I do agree that Iowa, Ohio and the rust belt area will flip back

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