Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump | 2020 Election Prediction | July 29th, 2019

hey guys welcome back today's video today is Monday July 29th 2019 and today we're gonna be looking at a 2020 presidential election prediction between senator Komal Harris from the state of California versus President Donald Trump so this matchup is also interesting like the other two I previously did khamel Harris is currently in fourth place nationwide right behind Bernie Sanders who was in third followed by actually not followed by preceded by Warren and then by Biden on top so common airs is about at 11% nationwide the only other candidate besides Warren Sanders and Biden above 10% which means she's pretty much out of solid fourth there's no real candidates that could actually come for a spot azzam right now until the debates which actually take place tomorrow and Wednesday so real quick I most likely will be live-streaming the debate tomorrow I'm not entirely sure about Wednesday if I'm not doing one today I will most likely be doing tomorrow I really want to be able to livestream both of these I think Wednesday is the most important night but you know I may have to uh there's personal reasons that's why I couldn't do it on Wednesday but hopefully I'll be able to do both nights but this video I really want to go through comma Harris has recently surged in popularity amongst the Democratic Party since her showing in the debate about a month ago and we're coming up on another debate so her numbers have sent into wind old she was at 7% before the debate peaked at 15 and now is back down to 11 so she doesn't have opportunity to peak again back in two days from now if she comes after Biden and takes away a number of his support or if any other candidates take away from Biden's support they could just distribute it equally across the rest of the remaining candidates possibly the top ones if Warren or Sanders which are both facing off each other tomorrow night I believe day one if they come after each other their numbers may fluctuate just a couple of percentage points but Harris definitely has a lot to gain by attacking Biden and Biden has a lot to lose by pretty much doing anything wrong in the upcoming debates but we're gonna be talking about a 2020 prediction between Trump and Harris so first things first we're talking about a senator from California we've never had a winning Democratic nominee from California before just based off history obviously that's not my basis for any of my state calls it's just a little bit of trivia that I like to throw out and she's also another senator of course she's a senator from California so a little bit weird seeing these many senators running and none of them actually getting notable I guess a recognition like Kristin Gillibrand 0.5% nationwide or Cory Booker at two percent nationwide just really interesting Club which are at one a lot of these senators that are definitely top names that aren't getting as much recognition as you might think for a normal senator but if we're looking at the 2020 map they're definitely number of top names which explains why these senators but it's just weird that a mayor from Indiana would have higher numbers than every other senator except for Harris Warren Sanders but let's look at this map real quick so we're filling in all this safe Democratic areas obviously the Northeast the what west coast what's interesting is that Dianne Feinstein is another Democratic senator from California and typically you'd expect your home state candidate to be endorsed by your home state representatives and Senator or senators and we don't have a senator running from that state but California Senator Dianne Feinstein a Democrat endorsed Joe Biden over senator Harris now that seems pretty interesting to me number one it definitely says a lot about how people back in California could perceive Harris I'm not saying that in any way California would ever become a toss-up if Harris is the nominee but it's just interesting that some of these Democrats that are working alongside with her and it supposed to be her friends in Congress are endorsing someone who has no affiliation with California is not from the state of California just it's just pretty interesting to look at something like that but common errors is that 182 Donald Trump is at 125 this is typically how the map starts out 231 toss-up electoral votes I'm actually gonna go ahead and get through a number of these likely states so states like Texas and Virginia New Mexico Colorado these states I would consider likely the three states in blue that likely ones for the Democratic Party and then Texas of course is likely for the GOP pretty much same reasoning stands we're looking at electoral trends and if we're looking at previous electoral history that's just how both of these three of these states are gonna go and then Texas for the GOP yes there are other minority candidates that could possibly do better in some of these states but as of right now I think these three are gonna go for the Democrats and this the state of Texas for the GOP we can go ahead and fill up in the north east I would say New Hampshire actually is a lean Democratic state it's gonna be possible for Trump to win here I think Harris actually might have us tonight mmm might not have as strong of a hold on the Northeast as you might think if we're talking about a candidate from the West Coast that doesn't necessarily resonate with a number of these voters which we're gonna see an impact on in some of these other areas it's gonna be harder for her to hold on there but may not large I would say goes to Harris Maine's first District but I do expect Trump to carry Maine's second District I don't think Harris is the nominee to bring back those Obama like voters yes she can appeal to some minority voters but if we're looking at her general appeal coming from California it's gonna be very hard for her to appeal to those white and working voters that were turned off by someone like Hillary Clinton but wanted to vote for someone like Obama or even back then Kerry or Gore or even Clinton as in Bill Clinton it's just interesting I do not think comma Harris could flip I mean second district back if we're looking down in the South Georgia I would consider likely in North Carolina a leanred and yes there is an argument that comma Harris you know she's I guess she would be the first female black president ever and the first female president ever to but it's just she may not have a strong of an appeal amongst african-american voters you might think Biden is dominating with african-american voters even after lasting impact on him if we saw his little Dib not lasting impact I guess short-term impact on him right after the debates Biden held on to those african-american voters they're not as excited as a female black candidate I mean they are more excited about an old white man than a female black candidate and that definitely says a lot about Colin Harris herself she has a very long history that is going to define her entire campaign just as it might define Biden's or Sanders are Waring if we're looking at other past history as they served in Congress as they served in other positions this past will define her and it may not be too good amongst African American the African American community it's not going to do well for her being able to bring out these voters and if we're just looking at the way that she's handled a number of things in California her past is definitely going to come back to bite her I'm not saying that there in the past for other candidates but if we're looking at someone like Joe Biden he was vetted in 2008 2012 when he was the VP nominee for Obama Sanders was vetted back in 2016 Warren has recently new into Congress and yes Harris is new into Congress as well but Harris also has a history being in other positions in the state of California that are going to eventually hurt her and I definitely think that in two days we were going to hear a lot about it at the Democratic debates I could be wrong but there are some things that may not be to I guess democratic ideal too close to the democratic ideology that you might think even with someone like Senator Harris Nebraska's second District I will characterize as a lean Republican district as I do with most candidates that are running Iowa and Ohio I think Iowa would be a likely state Ohio would be a lean state again Harris could bring out some african-american voters but I don't think it's enough to flip both of these states back Iowa you definitely do need to be able to resonate to I guess a more wider audience per se for looking at the inner cities we do have some in Iowa but in Ohio you know a lot of these people that did not vote in 2016 should have voted they voted in 2008 they voted in 2012 they let Obama to victory two times yet did not come out from Hillary Clinton number one because she wasn't able to motivate them to come out yes Harris has this shiny young attractive features that you might see in a presidential candidate that you may have seen in some other past Democrats but she's not as like to do my thing also take a look at her approval ratings amongst Democrats it's not necessarily the best thing ever for someone that's 4th place nationwide but that puts Trump at 222 69 for Harris but of course Donald Trump I do not expect to win in Minnesota I think that one's going to be likely regardless of who the Democratic nominee is except for obviously someone like Marianne Williamson very weak Democrats are probably not gonna do too low in states like Minnesota those pretty much are probably going to that's pretty much abroad those are going to move over a little bit more into the Democratic column just based on terms approval rating and for just looking at the entire Rust Belt generally I would expect both of those start in the state of Minnesota to go to the Democratic Party by a likely margin I think Florida is going to narrowly go to the GOP I think this is the case was with almost every single Democrat running it's going to be very hard to flip Florida number there's gonna be a lot of wasted money regardless of who wins here Hillary Clinton wasted a lot of her time in the South and North Carolina Georgia Florida Arizona number of states that she did not need to focus on and she needed to focus on the Rust Belt and she failed to do so the Democratic Party I do not think will make the same exact mistake but Trump still has on that silent majority that a lot of people are ignoring when they look at this yes as approval rating is abysmal a number of these states they should all be safe democratic states may stop that alone but you're forgetting that a number of these people they may disapprove of the president but they won't end up voting for him and they need a candidate that's someone who can appeal to the white working-class and to be completely honest with you Calma Harris may not in fact be that person so we're gonna characterize oh why oh why did I say Ohio Arizona as a lean GOP state and also it may sound that I may not necessarily be in favor of senator Harris I'm just bringing up a lot of things that I've been seeing personally and things that I definitely never going to be brought up by the Democrats in the next couple of days against her which is why I'm emphasizing on it now but I have no hard feelings against any of these candidates I do not personally care too much as to what happens in these debates until the primary she doesn't happen so I guess I could see how I sounded a little harsh about it but I do not have a personal vendetta against senator Harris and that's going to make an impact on what we're gonna see at the end of the video if I did have one but Nevada I think would be a lean a democratic state I think that's also the case whether the number of these Democrats right now she's at Hillary Clinton's numbers at 232 I do think Harris could win in Pennsylvania I do think she could narrowly win in Michigan as well both of these states do think will be decided by less than 1% these states are definitely gonna come down to the wire and it's going to get extremely close closer than we have seen in a number of presidential elections the fact that America is so divided is practically insane if you look back in 1996 I actually have the map right in front of me because I have them all across my room but it was an absolute democratic blow and then you could just go to 2004 and it wasn't a Republican blowout but if we saw it was pretty much a sea of red – the Rust Belt if you had included the Rust Belt it would have been a pretty much a pretty good quote-unquote landslide for George Bush 2000 rolls around in the Democrats do phenomenal when in Indiana come close in Montana North Dakota and Missouri win in new in North Carolina win in Virginia for the first time since 64 and if we're just looking at a number of the I guess the numbers in the previous elections in terms of electoral votes it definitely seemed like America was a lot less divided but this time around I definitely see a number of these states getting down to the wire and yes it may seem like this electoral victory is small for looking at the margins you know this thing could have gone either way but Harris is at 268 Trump is at 260 I think Trump is going to narrowly win Wisconsin this is the state is he's currently doing the best and to say that he won by the largest margin and back in 2016 and again every single vote matters but I think that both Michigan and Pennsylvania are the most democratic leaning at this point and Wisconsin is definitely going to be the focus I believe actually the Democratic nomination convention is going to be held in Milwaukee Wisconsin but as of right now I would say Wisconsin goes to trump I do think Trump would narrowly defeat senator Harris in a general election and I know a lot of you guys may not agree with that I just don't see Harris as this super strong candidate that she was built up to be two years ago or even a year ago where people were throwing her name out to run yes she is the black female presidential candidate but if we're talking about the way that Trump would personally attack her we're talking about her history and also if we're gonna see a couple of things come up in the upcoming debates that may completely reorganize the way that we view Harris as an electable candidate so thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

36 Responses

  1. and like every tv debate/speech of candidate, i will had to wait until the next day to watch myself the replay here on youtube, ahahaha (so sad we got 6h more here in france than the east cost)

  2. Kamala wont win against trump because she dosent have the black vote and I'm a black man. Check her record she locks up black men for profit

  3. kamala would be the one to fulfill the simpsons prediction as well for the black women coming to be President in the art painting

  4. I do not like Sen. Harris but it isn't hard to see that Trump losing to a black woman as a concept would humiliate him.

  5. I strongly disagree with his analysis of Harris vs Trump. First of all, his shock that Diane Feinstein would endorse Biden demonstrates a lack of basic political insight. She is a moderate Dem from the party's establishment wing who has known and worked with Joe Biden since the 1990's. She has been in lock step with Biden on many of the same positions that hurt him with the progressive wing. Moreover Feinstein and Biden are on the other side of the party's generational divide. No, not surprising. As too Harris' appeal in a match up with Trump. Beating Trump unites the Democratic party as he is so profoundly disliked by the base that they would walk over broken glass to vote against him. Moreover given that his campaign will be based on outrage and insult against the Democratic nominee in running against Harris – a black woman – he risks driving African American turnout to numbers that would exceed those that turned out for Obama. Black women are the best organized and most active part of the Democratic base and would be a force for the party's ground game. Also recall that if Harris is the nominee it will be with a unified party and she will have bested a strong field. She would prove difficult for Trump to attack without significant blow back. Also as a prosecutor, Harris is skilled at making well reasoned, persuasive arguments. She has flummoxed Session, Kavanaugh, Biden and would do the same to Trump. Ideally Trump will look to avoid her in the debates but the optics -"Scared to debate a girl?" – for one so vain and chauvinistic will force him to the stage. Also not showing up to the debate would give Harris 90 minutes of national airtime to prosecute the case of against him without rebuttal. No, he will not skip the debates. She will be able to tap into Obama's themes of hope, change and brighter days ahead. Among those who follow her on Twitter, Harris is known as the happy warrior for her otherwise sunny and outgoing disposition. And of course Barack and Michelle Obama – who are quite fond of Kamala – will campaign along side and for Harris. I think the Democrats would win Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and possibly Georgia in addition to the Clinton 2016 states.

  6. Trump winning by only two electoral votes and losing the popular vote twice in a row: it wouldn’t be a good time for the Dems

  7. I’m just curious how Kamala Harris will do as more debates come on. Her first one against Biden really surprised people.

  8. Yes! Please please please let it be Kamala!! I just cannot believe those blue collar voters you guys need in MI, WI & PA will choose Kamala over TRUMP ??

  9. As an electoral analyst, this is way off the mark. Harris actually has the second best likability relative to name recognition, behind Warren. Black voters like her, A LOT, they just care a lot more about electability (see not immediately backing Obama in ‘08). She would easily carry Nevada, and I would actually move NC to lean d, just because she has a very good appeal there. She would also heavily pull out Jamaican Americans and blacks in Florida, and I see her winning there too. Wisconsin May be a tossup, but Pennsylvania would go to Harris by probably 3 points, Michigan would be similar at like 2. Arizona would probably be the closest, with trump it Harris narrowly missing the state by less than .5. IN ADDITION, Dianne Feinstein actually has had a long, long career with Joe Biden and has been very close personal friends with him for decades, as opposed to Harris, who rolled in only three years ago. All in all, this prediction is extremely flawed and the logic behind some calls is thinner than tissue paper.

  10. Whoever the democrat is if they support healthcare for all and healthcare for illegals they are gonna lose in a landslide

  11. Kamala Harris will be the first Democratic African American woman nominee for president from the DNC. She will then go on to lose the 2020 election to President Donald Trump.

  12. Anyone else notice that if Maine's second district went to Harris it would be a tie… interesting and God I hope not

  13. As a democrat, I am fine with saying this. Senator Harris has not that much appeal to the rust Belt. If she does become the nominee, she will need to pick a v.p that does have appeal to the rust belt or campaign heavily there.

  14. Biden doing well with blacks isn’t because we necessarily like him it’s because we think he can win. Whoever can show their electability in the early primaries will be the candidate a majority of black democrats will support.

  15. Honestly, 66% turnout among African Americans carried Obama to victory Hillary came close with only 60% turnout among blacks. I don't see why Harris couldn't get the same margins as Obama.

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