Joe Biden vs Donald Trump | 2020 Election Prediction | July 28th, 2019

hey guys welcome back today's video today Sunday July 28th 2019 and today we're gonna be looking at a 2020 presidential election prediction between Vice President Joe Biden of course under the President Barack Obama administration versus president Donald Trump so before I get into this video I just want to see which theme you guys personally like the best I'll start off with the dark theme which has a pretty dark background and pretty much the map states the same terminal leaves all everything pretty much black and then it just fills in with each color light is pretty bright which is why I don't use it I think that it's just pretty much glaring on the computer screen same thing with contrast metallic is what I currently use and default definitely has that original 270 look I'm actually gonna go ahead and use the dark theme for this video I typically use metallic but make sure to comment down which one you guys want in future videos so this matchup should be one of the more interesting ones also if I sound a little bit softer it's because I'm trying not to be too loud it's like 11 p.m. right now but I'm on vacation as well but I'm looking at this I guess mashup between Joe Biden and Dom's from this is matchup that was always meant to be back in 2016 Joe Biden was expected to run for president had around 15% in polling and then announced that he would not challenge Hillary Clinton for the nomination I guess that pretty much cleared the pathway for Hillary Clinton's nomination if you don't include Bernie Sanders but Joe Biden right now has a pretty strong lead nationwide he is about 30% of the Democratic primary vote for a nationwide I guess consistently nationwide in terms of polling which shows that they're definitely on to something here the second-place mark definitely has been taken into consideration a lot of competition between Warren Sanders and Harris for that second place spot but seems like Sanders is prevailing as of right now with that spot Warren is in third and Harris is in fourth so Biden is what the Democratic Party likely will refer to as the most electable candidate looking at all the data we have right now Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump in areas where other Democrats may lose to him or by larger margins than any other Democrat if we're looking at the National polling data Trump beats Harris Trump beats Warren loses to Sanders Palouse is divided in my double digits that's something necessarily look to well for these other Democratic candidates argue ability about electability with 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton that was interesting Hillary Clinton did not have the data backing her up in terms of electability just that she had the experience for it but this time around Biden outperformed Sanders in polling data something Hillary Clinton could not do and the Sanders wing of the Democratic Party definitely argue that Sanders is in fact more electable but this time around they can't necessarily do that by didn't defeat Trump in Ohio by eight percent whereas Sanders this is by one more and this is by one in Harrison Buddha judge tie you know it's just really interesting with some of these results but as of right now Joe Biden seems like he is the most electable candidate so let's go ahead and fill in these safe democratic states that would not include Idaho for obvious reasons but let's go ahead and fill in all the north eastern states Illinois as well I guess that's not entirely it obviously there's some other areas I think I'm missing one generally I characterize New Mexico as a safe democratic state with Joe Biden actually do think that one would be safe we're gonna come back to it just like yesterday's video asked for Trump you will have a number of these I guess central states that will be considered safe for him so let's go ahead and fill those in right now may never ask a second a toss-up and then go up to the Northeast you know there's not much to focus on there so 125 for Trump and 182 for Biden so let's look at these 231 toss-up electoral votes I actually want to get out of the way the states that would be considered likely States for either political party so Virginia is definitely one of them I think that one would be considered likely for Joe Biden especially with I guess the overall trend that we've been seeing in states like Virginia and other states that I'm bringing up in a moment in favor of the Democratic Party there's no reason as to why it wouldn't be likely unless there's some really bad Democratic candidate generally this state will vote the same regardless of who the dem nominee is same thing with the state of Texas that one would be likely for Trump regardless of most Democrat except for people like possibly but Aurora core holding in Castro and even then really comes down to campaigning I think this will be a five six percent victory Donald Trump moving over into some of these other democratic states New Mexico I'm actually gonna consider safe I think Joe Biden would have a stronger appeal to minorities just because he's so closely tied to the President Obama administration I think he's gonna be smart about who he chooses for his VP nom not dropping names here but I think that it will be someone that will be able to help him much minority voters because if we're looking at the electorate yes they want to win back those white voters and they can do that with Joe Biden but they also want to inspire a crowd that typically doesn't vote one that voted in 2008 but didn't vote in 2016 one that got Obama elected but also stayed home and got Trump elected obviously some Democrats that voted for Obama flipped over to the GOP and voted for Trump but I think the Democratic Party's going for both of those demographic groups the ones that stayed home in 2016 and the ones that flipped voting and I think with Biden at the top they have the Rust Belt in a pretty good place but they definitely are gonna try to make up for it in other places as well and this was dividing at 200 I would consider Colorado a likely democratic state if for looking at frontier as well looks like Colorado is gonna be a pretty solid Democratic state possibly in the future as well for looking at 2024 by the way we'll be coming out with a 2024 video in the near future make sure to stay tuned for that so 209 for Biden 163 for Trump where can Trump make up the margin well we look over at states like Georgia states like Georgia and North Carolina both of which I'd actually characterize as lean GOP states now North Carolina would be closer than Georgia but I think that Biden would have a really good appeal to african-american voters voters that pretty much dominate the Democratic electorate in Georgia and North Carolina and it's a state that if Democrats are able to inspire african-americans come out and vote I don't necessarily think both of these states are going to flip even with someone like Joe Biden it's really hard to flip these two Republican states I mean both of these states went for Romney back in 2012 Trump in 2016 one of them went to McCain in 2008 and both to Bush before the last time North Carolina went blue before 2008 I believe was either with Carter and 2008 was 14 thousand votes in favor of Barack Obama in his wave election he won Indian more than you one north carolina's percentage-wise which is pretty insane but North Carolina Georgia I would consider both of those lien GOP states just that right now obviously they could change in the future as a right now I don't think Biden that's gonna be able to flip them just yet in their ask the second I would consider a lien a GOP district that when I don't see many Democrats actually doing to all their maybe Amy Klobuchar at most even then the oscillating district is gonna be pretty good for Donald Trump may not large I think would go to Barden means first District I do think Donald Trump would narrowly and I mean narrowly went on main second district although Biden does have an Obama like appeal I think that Donald Trump would have a just a little bit stronger of all grip on those voters that voted for him by double digits back in 2016 so Trump is at 196 the Democrats are at 212 we saw the entire respite open I would actually characterize New Hampshire right now as a likely democratic state I think that Joe Biden is gonna do extremely well in the state of New Hampshire you know it could move over into the lean but I think that this could possibly five six percent for Joe Biden it was a really strong lead over Obama Inouye in 2012 as well 2016 was not necessarily the case for the Democratic Party but I would say New Hampshire moves back into the likely Democratic column but I think that Trump is gonna do well in Florida I think that he's gonna be able to hold on to the same base that he had back in 2016 and 2018 as well if we're looking it doesn't look like Florida is gonna go completely in favor and flip to the Democratic Party definitely is going to get very very close things definitely can change overnight but Florida as of right now I'm going to characterize as a tilt GOP state putting down a shrimp at 2:25 in Biden at 2:16 so if we're looking at some other democratic states Nevada had actually characterized as likely I think that Biden would be able to do well much Latino voters just like a couple of other candidates I would say that Nevada would be a likely Democratic state Minnesota joining the likely Democratic state I guess characterization as well I actually would characterize Pennsylvania as the likely Democratic state if we're looking where Joe Biden was from he was a major part of Obama's 2008 campaign campaigning in the Rust Belt we're looking at the state of Pennsylvania it's Donald Trump number one is approval rating is extremely there Biden definitely would be a lot more favored in Pennsylvania the state that he's from and would have a much better appeal to the white working-class compared to someone like Hillary Clinton you know who barely lost in three states might I had back in 2016 Pennsylvania I think would go to by a likely margin to Joe Biden but I do think that Ohio and Iowa are both gonna go to Donald Trump and you need a really specific Midwest type white working-class type of candidate to win there yes winning the Rust Belt is it is sort of similar similar to winning in Iowa in Ohio and yes they may have similar approval ratings but the electrodes there are not exactly the same you can win in the Rust Belt and lose in Iowa and Ohio just it's not too typical but in 2020 it could be a very real reality for a number of these Democrats in Wisconsin I think will be a lean democratic state joined by the state of Minnesota so the German I would say Minnesota stay in Michigan putting Biden as the 46th president of the United States America at 278 to Trump's 249 so we've left one state and that is the state of Arizona and this thing I actually think will be a tilt democratic state the state loves centrist Democrats as we saw with Kyrsten Sinema and if we're looking in 2020 we the Democratic Party may just have that tiny shift in favor of centrist Democrats from the demographic shift and if we're looking at Arizona itself you know it's definitely taking a lot more steps into becoming a more democratic state Senate and House almost always favored the Democrats more in presidential election years even if they do lose in the electoral college I think Arizona will have that final push to flip to being a democratic state very narrowly because of Biden being able to bring out some voters that haven't been tapped since it doesn't eat or 2012 so that wraps up this video Joe Biden 289 Donald from 249 obviously a number of these districts or states can flip which is why the characterize is lean and some are characterized as safe and likely I'm much more confident in the likely safe state compared to the lean thoth ones obviously again things can happen before 2020 but this is how I think it would stand today on Sunday July 28th 2019 so thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

31 Responses

  1. I see a lot of comments about Biden being the establishment democratic candidate, but democrats (in recent history) seem to prop them up to the nomination time & time again. This is exactly why I believe Biden will do well for the nomination.

  2. Anyone who thinks that in the end Joe Biden would not only carry the rust belt by a larger margin than Bernie {If he could at all) but beat Trump overall by a larger margin than Bernie, needs to do some serious studying of the 2016 results and how these candidate's policies effected it/are going to effect it.

    Biden is basically Hillary 2.0, everyone predicted she would narrowly win the rust belt but she didn't, this alone gave us Trump. Same thing can easily happen with Biden. Meanwhile Bernie was leading Trump in this area by double digits because he actually opposed the trade deals that outsourced all their jobs.

  3. I disagree with AZ and I feel like Wisconsin is going to be an extraordinarily close race and only depends where in the state has slightly higher turn out

  4. Biden is speaking and looking terrible this week and sadly he wont make it another year as the top candidate… stamina too low, so moderates and centrists and less rash voters will have to get a new horse. Someone who isnt polling well now will inevitably fill in, rise up in polls. I mention ppl like bullock. And I see a lot of older ppl and women fawning over young mayor Pete. There will need to be further consolidation.

    As the conversation goes on and reason and reality set in there will be a huge focus to #ditchmitch and Democrats by and large will shift to who "can beat trump" and who has coat tails. And that involves raising money. It may just be another smooth talker inexperienced candidate or it could be one with a long track record. I dont see Biden as holding on. Trump will be watching the impeachment process. Mitch will be somewhat distracted with his contest in KY.

  5. America, you really have to do better! Over 20 choices for the best person to unseat a serial-pussy-grabbing racist fake POTUS, and the favourite candidate wins, only by 289-249…
    If America was a YouTube channel, I would say UNSUBBED!!!

  6. most polls show him at more than 8% ahead of Trump. He's also leading individually in NC , Iowa , Ohio and Florida + even Texas. so this isnt that accurate honestly.

  7. I respect everyone’s opinion and can definitely see how people think Biden could win but really there still isn’t a single democratic candidate that could beat Trump. They need to step it up if they want the win

  8. When you look issue by issue, Sanders (and Warren/Gabbard slightly) do far better. Couple that with Sanders doing best among latino voters and polling neck and neck with african-american voters in at least one recent poll (well, more like end of last month but still) with Biden, this race is far more up in the air than the MSM is willing to say. While every other candidate has been seeing wild swings up and down (even Biden), Sanders continues to stay steady and, as more and more dems drop out, I think we'll see them turning more towards Sanders as Biden's foot continues to shove itself into his mouth, Harris's and Booker's records continue to come up, and more. This may sound crazy but my money is that by the end of March, it'll be down to Sanders and Warren.

  9. LMAO Biden win? How much money you wanna put into a third party bet distribution? Trump is going to win both the popular vote and the electoral college. I have money on trump being a 2 term president I’m more than confident it will be a large victory margin for trump over anyone looking to take on trump

  10. Sleepy/Creepy Uncle Joe won’t make it to the General Election. He will drop out before January due to either health issues or a scandal. He doesn’t have what it takes to go all the way. That’s when HRC swoops back in on her broomstick and runs in order to “save the Democratic Party”. I’ll bet the farm on it and I don’t even own a farm. Because if that woman is breathing, she’s running. This is gonna be the best show in town. I can’t wait to watch her lose for a third time! Trump 2020!

  11. I don't agree with this prediction. Biden is moderate enough that he has a shot at winning Florida, but it's gonna be hard for him to win the Midwest, except Pennsylvania

  12. This is basically what the 2020 Electoral Map is going to look like in my opinion. I think Biden wins Florida, though.

  13. dream the fuck on it's never going to happen. Ofc the best president in US history (Donald Trump) will get reelected!

  14. No way could Biden beat Trump. Biden has lost his acuity, he is old and feeble, like Robert Mueller. Also, Joe Biden said that Black children going to White Schools causes a "racial jungle". That is a lot more racist than anything Trump has said, and is actually the same as what H&M did, which caused Blacks to loot and ransack their stores. The average potential Joe Biden voter has no idea of his long history of making super racist comments. MSM hides it and covers for him, but Trump will bring up "racial jungle" every chance he gets. Blacks won't vote for Biden if they realize he called their children jungle apes. Calling their kids apes pisses them off way more than anything Trump has said, wait till they find out. Also, 30% of the Democrats are the AOC+3 wing, and they are not going to be getting excited over Joe Biden, now that they've been promised Socialism. Trump should be getting USMCA passed, signing it into law later this year. Maybe he can strike the coveted China deal too. Much can happen in a year, Biden might be through by next week. Can he survive getting crushed in another debate? Trump would have a field day with him on the debate stage, he can't hold his own. Creepy Uncle Joe Biden has a very slim chance of being the nominee, look at rest of the top 5, none of their supporters are likely to want sleepy Joe. Plus, no one has made a big idea about it, but he has acted weird with underage girls, on tape. Most people wouldn't let Joe Biden around their daughters, but you think he's beating Trump easily? lol. The silent majority will reelect Trump in another Electoral landslide.

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