How Donald Trump Can Win the 2020 Election

hey guys welcome back today's video today is Monday May 20th 2019 and today we're gonna be looking at how Donald Trump can win the 2020 presidential election as of today so right now we're gonna start off with a blank electoral map we're not gonna distinguish between which Democratic candidate is going to win the nomination we're just going to assume that Donald Trump is the Republican nominee nominee what she's and most likely with 99 percent chance going to be the nominee and then we'll just assume that this is a generic Democrat and it's just gonna be an electoral map as to how Donald Trump can actually win this type of election so right now looking at the map there are a number of states that are obviously gonna go to the Democratic and Republican Party so that is not something that is necessarily contested nobody really argues with the fact that Kansas has red and New York is blue so we're gonna characterize all of those states now these are states that are probably not going to change in favor of the president regardless of how bad a Democratic candidate is because these states are extremely extremely democratic and I mean extremely democratic and that's something that Donald Trump is always gonna have to face Republican candidates or he's gonna have to face that Democratic candidates are always gonna have to face that in terms of solid Republican states these aren't states that could really have a real chance at flipping now for the same thing goes for Republican states are a number of Republican states that don't have a real chance at flipping and it'd just be completely unrealistic if we did characterize one of these states as a democratic state unless there was some extreme circumstances where it could actually go a certain way for example Illinois in 2008 but since then probably has no real chance at flipping and since we are considering a Donald Trump type of election where he has to win with this – with this electoral map we're not gonna factor in any of those possible red to blue states and just to focus on the states that are gonna flip from blue to red or stay from red to red but right now we start off our electoral map with 125 electoral votes for Donald Trump and 182 for the Democratic Party and that's expected that's the same exact thing every single election season and for good reason these are the same exact states that are always considered Democratic and Republican states respectively not respectively that doesn't apply to this but they're just the same Democratic and Republican states that are always safe States you know there are very little times I'm sorry there are very few times when these states particularly get close if you look at 2008 that was the last time you could argue that any of the safe states were closed for the case of Indiana Missouri in Montana but other than that they weren't really too close if you look at 2016 results not close whatsoever and since Donald Trump is running for re-election a lot of these states are likely to stay within that close column again there's a lot of arguments between Bernie Sanders being the nominee Joe Biden being the nominee or someone else have the other 21 candidates besides those two and you know a lot of them do have particular people to individual states like Peabody Church in Indiana or a better or work in Texas but as of right now these are the generalized safe safe Republican states now there are some other quote-unquote safe Republican states that aren't necessarily safe in terms of the margin but they're always gonna go to the GOP just the margin maybe a little bit less than 15 percent or more and those are states like Texas Texas is probably not gonna go to the Democratic Party in 2020 it's just very unlikely at this point of time even with someone like better work and be very very on I guess not plausible for that type of situation to occur so the state of Texas goes into the likely column for the GOP joined by the state of Georgia and North Carolina now North Carolina and Georgia I definitely seen arguments of them getting closer but I still see them going in favor of the GOP regardless of the Democratic nominee these are two states that have held its Republican identity for a very long time and the only time actually won all three of these states North Carolina Georgia and Texas ever got close were either in 2016 for the cases of Georgia and Texas or 2008 when North Carolina went blue by 14 thousand votes that is not a swing state as they say that had a fluke because given my Galatz time I went to a Democrat I believe before that might have been either Carter or even 64 but State North Carolina went to the Democratic Party by 14,000 votes it was extremely close and it's been Republican ever since though it's historically a Democratic governor state in terms of the governor elections this one is a Republican state on a presidential scale and that makes sense if we're looking at the Kenneth's like Mitt Romney and Donald Trump these are two candidates I can do really well with a conservative base Mitt Romney did a lot better in Georgia and Texas than Donald Trump but obviously demographic changes also good do come in to an effect here but all three of these states I do see as likely states for Donald Trump if he is to win the 2020 election now the same thing goes there are some of these states that are going to be likely in favor of the Democratic Party states include for Jane yeah and New Mexico these are Tuesday's that I can say safely off the bat that these are going to be likely states in favor of the democratic party base whether the 2016 numbers through 2018 results and upcoming election data for the 2020 presidential election Donald Trump is not popular in either to in either of these states and it really shows in terms of the way that they voted in the past and also how the election data is coming in for right now and also demographic shifting is not necessarily helping if you're looking in Northern Virginia getting a lot more democratic New Mexico getting a lot more democratic it's not good for the president considering that he needs as many Republican voters as possible from these states also went for Hillary Clinton back in 2016 so they weren't necessarily his seats to begin with but again a Donald Trump is to win he's gonna need to hold on to a number of these states if we're looking at Iowa that is a state that he could possibly hold and I do think that this one actually could go into the likely column it really just depends on the Democratic nominee as of right now I'm gonna be safe with this and hold it in the lean column but Donald Trump is probably going to carry that state regardless of the nominee because it's probably going to go more in favor of the Republican Party as we get closer but again anything can change at this instant and also Ohio would also need to go to the president that's something that really need to go without a doubt that one needs to go to Donald Trump as a baseline now the rest of these days can really fluctuate I'm being completely honest with this all the remaining number these remaining states can really go either way in 2020 now it's crazy seeing Colorado and Nevada as swing states and not Ohio and Iowa but it makes sense those states were not as close as the Colorado and Nevada and it's really interesting considering that both of those states are typically swing states but not so much in this election season Donald Trump did very well with both these states back in 2016 and it's definitely showing if you look at the governor election in 2018 in the state of Ohio for example it was a 5 percent low end which isn't exactly the biggest thing but keep in mind that it was supposed to be a democratic wave year when Republicans aren't necessarily turning out in huge droves and numbers the Democratic Party is expected to flourish as expected that's redundant but they are expected to flourish and that's not exactly what happened in these particular states yes the house election to win of here with the Democrats which is something to have going for them but Ohio we really didn't see much gain for the number cuts there whatsoever just to hold and only they had one pickup or maybe only one pickup but that puts the Democrats at 200 electoral votes in the Republican Party at 218 that leaves the entire restaurant open Florida and then parts of the Sun Belt and the Northeast the Northeast is pretty interesting considering a Donald Trump if he is to win reelection will likely carry the same second district in Maine's Maine's second congressional district but also for looking at it there is a possibility he does win it at large he can't afford to lose it if he were discussing how he could win in 2020 there are many scenarios I would say the most likely path is going to be through the Rust Belt again possibly gaining Minnesota possibly losing it possibly losing Michigan and holding on to Wisconsin in Pennsylvania heck possibly losing Wisconsin Michigan and holding Pennsylvania or whatever a variant of the three just things definitely need to go through the Rust Belt if Donald Trump it's a realistic chance we're probably not gonna see Colorado red and Michigan blue that's probably not how we're gonna see it even though that could have been a very real possibility back in the year 2000 or 2004 or 2008 or even 2012 but just not so much 2016 and above so Colorado I'm actually gonna characterized as a lean Democratic State Donald Trump is definitely gonna carry the state of Arizona I think that one would be a lean margin but I do think that one's gonna go to him inevitably unless a candidate let's say for example Joe Biden is a really really good candidate and focuses a lot of attention there which is still probably not going to happen going up to the northeast of the Democratic Party is probably going to carry that first district the second district is probably gonna go by a tilt margin put the Democrats of 212 Republican Party at 230 now here's where it actually gets down to the dirty nebraska second district it's gonna go by a likely margin that one's probably gonna be that way regardless of who the Democratic nominee is but if we're looking we're looking across the Rust Belt this is an area that Donald Trump can definitely win in he can definitely win in Michigan you can definitely win Pennsylvania he'd get it and definitely went in Wisconsin he's done it before it's not impossible that officially makes him the next president he's gonna carry Florida by a likely margin leaner likely margin that's really how I see it for 2020 it's gonna be extremely hard for even Biden or Sanders to even win in the state of Florida that so far I think it's a lost cause for the Democratic Party but again we will see in about a year when I come back to this and go through it again New Hampshire as well that is a state that I could also go in favor of Donald Trump overlooking Minnesota could definitely go in favor of Donald a lot of you have argued that Minnesota is not gonna go in the Democratic Party to the Republican Party but we're talking about a scenario where Donald Trump is to win this election if he's actually gonna go into 2020 and come out the victor there's a really strong chance that he's able to pick up at least a couple of electoral votes based off history alone that most presidential candidates win more electoral votes the second time around I don't think that it's I don't think necessarily that it is possible for Trump to win in Minnesota don't get me wrong based on the current Iranian Democrats I don't think it's likely whatsoever but this is a scenario where he's winning in 2020 and we're discussing how he can win so when I say that he can definitely win in the state of Minnesota I'm referring to this tiny bit of scenario where he does win this election it definitely gets a lot larger of a possibility of a win you know above 60% when he runs against someone like Bill DeBlasio which is coming out in a couple of days where I'm gonna make a video about that Donald Trump would definitely do very very very well against him we're having someone like Joe Biden he's definitely to have a lot more competition so I don't want to get the terminology confused terminology confused just know which type of I guess way I'm referring to a specific state Nevada and North North Carolina Nevada and New Hampshire both can go in favor of Donald Trump it's a very real possibility in terms of a reelection bid but this is not the most likely scenario in terms of the possibilities for 2020 I think the most likely scenario of Donald Trump was to expand on his electoral votes and win re-election would just be a gap by giving Nevada and New Hampshire to the Democratic Party and then you're set ten more electoral votes of the Democrats and then that finalizes the electoral map but this is how Donald Trump could theoretically win reelection through these states alone I think the rest of the democratic states that have already characterized as democratic states are pretty much off limits for Donald Trump at this point with the exception of Maine's Maine at large so that wraps up today's video thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

38 Responses

  1. When Trump wins again I hope all you liberal/democrat commie traitors try to start a civil war. It will give us, the conservative patriots an excuse to wipe your worthless asses out for good.

  2. The other way Trump can win that is never talked about , just show up !!! /we will be fighting mass voter fraud in 2020 and Trump can't (( Legally )) lose

  3. If the Democrats run Biden he will flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe Florida, Arizona or Ohio.
    If the Democrats run Bernie he will flip Maine 2nd, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio, Florida, and Arizona.
    Bernie is more electable and in my opinion he has way better policies. Bernie would be the best choice for the Democratic nomination but the establishment will probably screw him over.

  4. The only way Democrat’s can win is if they rally behind 1 person instead of 20 like they are now if they don’t then trump will win

  5. It's gonna be close. Trump might win just barley. He will probably loose the popular vote again by possibly even more than last time. I just don't think any of the swing states go blue next election.

  6. I’m curious to see what your predictions are for DeBlasio vs. Trump in 2020.
    DeBlasio surely won’t get the nomination, but hypothetically, if he did, I think he would win only 3 states: New York, California and Illinois, plus the 3 electoral votes for DC. I don’t even think he can win in the far-left states of Massachusetts and Maryland.

  7. My view is a dem win by a substantial margin. The faces don't matter as long as you got a D or R. The demographics is turning darker blue by the day now. The Blue Wave is here 🙁 Trump didn't stop the blue wave via southern border. So I see a blue tidal wave 2020. Doesn't even matter who wins because the Blue wave will devour the whole country eventually. In 10 yrs it will become nearly all Dem Sorry. How can anyone not se that coming. R voters are old and dying off. Blue voters are young and just ready to overwhelm the country. Sorry.

  8. I don't know how the Democratic Party should be even close.
    They got nothing going for them.
    They hate America, hate the citizens,hate the vets, but bend over backwards for foreigners.
    You can see the inflated prices and piss poor quality of life, housing shortages caused by their taxation policies.
    They are terrible for small businesses, but great for Corporations despite their rhetoric.
    They hate workers taxing them to death, but love the lazy people wanting free shyte , buying their votes and encouraging them to be generational poverty dependent vote slaves.

  9. Damn good video prediction at this point in time, that is to say no impeachment, no further scandals, and Trump's message still resonating with his voters. Two caveats here, one with Virginia riddled with scandals of Gov. and AG there which could make Trump's electoral count higher and two, Nevada which has a large Hispanic/Mexican voter base which could swing state to dems. One thing to note is in the 2016 election, Trump was leading in Virginia but in the later tallies, but it switched over to Hillary, with some millennial computer geeks disclosing black box voting to favor Hillary just before HS director Jay Jeh steped in and controlled the info to the tabulating computers. These geeks traced the black box ip address to surrogates of the Bush family who as Republicans supported Hillary. This was disclosed on a you tube video which is no longer available.

  10. Arizona has a chance of becoming Trump's Michigan in 2020 if he takes it for granted like Clinton did Michigan in 2016.

    It is trending democratic pretty rapidly and if Ttrump just assumes he's going to win it he could very well llose it which could offset a potential loss of Wisconsin for democrats which I think is fairly likely.

  11. Trump dropped 24 points in Florida since he was elected, and theres like 70k new Puerto Rican new voters that are like 80% Democrat. Florida is going to be blue.

  12. I agree with this except I really believe Virginia is not going to be as easy for the Democrats in 2020. I think there is a possibility Trump could win there.

  13. With his approval being slightly over both Florida and Ohio and with the fact that many people in Virginia don't like their governor or lieutenant governor after the recent scandals there is a good chance that Trump could win that state all he has to do is just hold on to the Western Rural counties Virginia Beach and if he can win at least Norfolk that can probably offset the northern suburbs and he be able to win Virginia

  14. This man is selling you out dummies😏 Even Obama did not pushed what this guy is pushing.. He is flying illegals into the US cities and YOU are paying for this🥴 You are so SCREWED 🤪

  15. Biden won't be better than Hillary let's be real so this might happen if he got the nomination. Trump reelection is real its just how many states he can win after all alot of republicans didn't vote for him in 2016 because of the tape and he was a liberal before couple of years so it made them sit in home and complain about it during the election so after becoming president and gaining almost 90% support of his party he would win along side with independents who voted for him in 2016

  16. If you remove the rustbelt Trump still has 270 electoral votes. In other words; Trump doesn't need the rustbelt

  17. this is not a how can trump win 2020…this is a best case scenario for Trump…How he could win is…Holding all the states he won last time except Michigan (probably a lost cause) and not lose Penn And Wisc or Arizona or NC…) A tie would likely get the president elected again too…

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