Governance and Risk Meeting: Ep. 46



hello everyone welcome to the August first first edition of the scientific governance and risk meeting I was just checking the numbers and amazingly this is our 45th scientific conference and risk meeting is 45 weeks of wall-to-wall analytical actions that's pretty impressive but then it's quite a library of information to troll through I think it's a bit of an achievement because keeping momentum up on these things is notoriously difficult in the fact that we've done it as a community is very heartening it's good that we've maintained that momentum because that momentum is about to ramp up into overdrive third thanks for the crunch and David this is about to ramp up into overdrive we have a lot of things that are going to start happening in the next month or two and I keep on teasing that and it's generally my policy not to tease things because that's you know it's annoying I was hoping to dig into some some deep government stuff today but we I kind of got bumped because there's more interesting things happening that we can address immediately we're gonna have some presentations from a presentation from a new face in this call today Primo's you've been working closely with the risk teams is going to present some grass to us which I've been assured by Cyrus are dope so dope and so I'm looking forward to figuring out what that's all about but let's let's talk about well let's do the preambles and we'll talk about governance very quickly then we'll talk to we'll hear from David about what's been going on in the forums the preamble is this we are enormous ly interested in hearing what the community has to say and this is this is the opportunity for immediate back-and-forth so if you have a question please type it into the chat if you have access to a microphone please pipe up and just ask your question you can interrupt us we don't mind we also have a forum now in the forum is now my favorite place to be I'm going to paste a link into the chat now if you have a question that you feel didn't get addressed in the call or is excited scope the collar just too much for the call to handle please type it in this and this forum thread we're also going to be posting links to the videos after the calls over we'll be posting summaries there we'll be continuing the discussion and so this is where the long tail governance happens the forum is it and I think that you can refer back to the library of 46 previous episodes to figure out how important it is or we consider that the forum to be I'm not going to get into that conversation today what I am going to talk about is one of the first major items on our roadmap that's coming up on this on this march towards MCD launch is going to be the asset priority poll and we've talked about this employees never really talked about it in the call we've talked about it in the chat we've talked about the forms the asset priority list is there as a priority poll is a mechanism which will allow the community to surface I should stuck me in this pose so let us know which priority which assets they wants the community that governs teams the risk teams to focus on first there's a lot of work to be done there are seven assets that need to be evaluated with rigor and in order to get everyone on the same page we need to figure out which ones we're working on first I'm just supposed to link to the forum thread cleverly entitled the asset priority poll there's some discussions in there about different ways we can go about conducting this poll and so what i'm doing here is i'd like to get some signals from the community I want to know what the community thinks the best way of managing this poll is there's some context to votes some of the limitations that we have in our existing system we've never attempted to try to find a priority list and we don't have dragon droppable boxes and we don't have sliders and we don't have other pleasingly advanced UX mechanisms yet but we can definitely shoehorn priority fold into the system please have a look and then vote on the poll figure out which one you like this is an experiments and pretend example of what I am going to continue to call an emergent process because that's what's happening work as a group figuring out how things should work and I like that way of doing things because that there's two ways kind of this must be binary about this you can come up with a binder spend six months working on that binder drop it with a side and on a desk and then expect the rates and sort through that thing and look for educators or you can come up some basic principles and basically function some good ideas and then iterate over time and that's what's happening in the forums and it's kind of like the crypto e open source e way it's got us this far so maybe you look at assume farther so what we're doing sorry this was the example of that emergent process is I referred heavily when I was making us post to processes that I was not created by the foundation the processes were created by the community and this other thread called meta governance and signal requests so we have a lot of people talking to each other debating what's the best way to circle some signal in the forums and have that lead into a signal in the polling system and so I actually referred to the this this new sort of rule set in the forums to figure out how to do my job which is a really cool way of moving this entire operation forward I think it's it was super satisfying so I followed along for wisdoms rules it's best if I possibly could with some contributions for the rest of the group to make that's the new poll for the asset priority list that poll will be open for seven days five days I think once that's done we will use that to craft the new poll that goes into the governance mechanism proper that new mechanism will be we'll go live we're sorry nothing not going to the new poll will go live to determine the asset party list on August 12th before that happens we will all be enjoying a new version of as well we're going to talk about that next Thursday Chris is going to come in from product will come in and give us a brief tour of what's changed in the portal and explain some of the new tools new freedom that it presents us to do more than one thing at a time which is going to be nice when it comes to agility velocity and give us some insight into how the snapshotting mechanism works and how the differentiation between poles and in the executives it's going to be very exciting I think that's that's all I am going to get into today other than leaving the community with a request to hit up that forum thread make your voice heard read through the debates if you have a better idea about how to conduct the poll we would love to hear it there's five days to give us feedback before we start working on implementing in some all right I think I'm going to stop there David very very super brief so I'm not gonna cover everything that is in the governance at a glance threats so if you guys don't know about it long for wisdom has a consistently running thread that he updates pretty much every week with any new discussions that are going on it's really comfortably kind of categorized I'm gonna link the whole thread here just for you guys on the call if you guys are interested in checking it out but I'm only gonna cover the two new threads that he added this week if you're curious about the other threads you could just listen to me talk about it on the last call or you could just go on the thread and check it out yourself so the two new threads that surfaced this week are there's one about an explanation of continuous voting and the peculiarities of the 7:26 executive stability fee vote so what what happened was on the 19th of July we saw a vote passed with 30 mm MK our but since then somebody lifted the Hat of an old proposal and this old proposal happened to have around 78,000 MKR so now because this old proposals that in order for the current executive vote to pass we need to have more than 78 km k are voting so this presented kind of some challenges to the communities since it seems that MKR voters don't participate as much when it's not an emergency so you know back when the peg was drifting below $1 pretty consistently everybody was on a higher urgency mode so we saw a lot more voter turnout in terms of raw amount of MKR that was being put up for these proposals but since then somebody you know if you don't withdraw your MKR from an old proposal it's actually just going to sit there forever and although you can't cast spell twice on a proposal you can lift it to the hat which just makes it a proposal that you have to beat so the thread covers this issue and I think actually the next version of D s chief solves this issue but nevertheless it's an interesting thread and actually it's it's not necessarily bad because it might be that if we really do need to make a rate change we're gonna see the maker governance community actually rally they have to rally at least 78k maker to make any real change so it actually might increase voter engagement but again we have yet to see it and this is just one of the current things that's happening in governance at maker and so the other thread that I want to cover is quadratics so quadratics one of our awesome Canoe members he he owns the MKR gov Twitter handle and he had the idea to make this and kr gov Twitter handle sort of a a Bolton board forum canner holders on Twitter who want to be informed and the idea was to have a hybrid kind of bot that automated when you votes come out when interested like pretty much just governance stuff so you votes interesting threads even like maybe timed updates of votes so if you have an executive vote going on maybe twice a day it could tweet hey there's a there's 10 km kr with 60 K needed to pass you know so we'll have that signal kind of going out into the public to give em kr holders one more place where they could be informed about governance stuff so I thought this was a great idea I tagged mark who created the maker die bot that uh that gives updates on the maker system already he said he's looking into it so it'd be really cool to have a Twitter handle like that just generally speaking and I think this also brings into attention the greater issue of the fact that M Care holders needs to have a place where they're informed about governance that's not just you know dig through the forums yourself dig through everything yourself even though that's very important oh yeah that's it those are the two and your threads that happened this week since last week conversations have happened in all the other threads so definitely check those out but yeah that's it for my section thank you thanks David we have wants to go over today presentations from promotion and we also have the state of the peg from Michele lytx good Koho so sorry I gotta hand it over to you to set that up and then introduce whoever you want to have go first yeah sure so I think we're gonna start off with primo she's going to introduce some data analytics and then we'll have the shush go after works okay you ready yeah hi guys so the customer time is very limited to present all these interesting metrics we were working on for the past month or two together return to my team I'm going to be just a short really short introduction the company I run is called block analytic I been working together with research and service for some time developing Chris model for McDowell during this time I was used to focusing on various metrics that I wanted to present to you and came across sentiment which was able to provide me with technical support for developing this platform which I'm going to present to you now please find the link in the chat they're going to share my screen note also that the platform is still kind of in beta mode mystery design but yeah let me let me start I'll go quickly through all the seven categories to introduced I won't cover all the garage because there's so many of them but here we go so the first category we call the network activity it takes a look at on chain activity of dial or maker we're going to focus on dye now you can also also smooth the data for as many days as you want and let's check first the address activity so this is the daily activity basis so the dye addresses that interact daily with blockchain and the number is increasing and the trend is very positive there's about 2,000 active addresses constantly interacting which is very positive the orange line is the network growth so these are the new address is generated daily for dye which is also increasing and very positive despite that yours this is the kombis effect and I'm going to call it coinbase effect because you're going to see a bunch of a bunch of times this kind of effects from coinbase that happened I think five days ago where they introduced the campaign and the blue line is active posits on centralized exchanges and it's most more or less it's flat because more or less everything's happening on chain with the IRS every metric can be compared to it's either tie price or ether price you can find some patterns here I wasn't able to find anything actually but I was able to find some patterns here which the metric is called transaction volume transaction number of transactions basically on chain activity of dye and what's what's perhaps interesting is that every time the volume picks up a bunch an activity for dye in terms of the number of transactions the dye price tends to spike up and this haven't also last year and this year and most probably this think is is connected with the fact that when there's an increase activity increased rating of dye people are mostly bidding card I so mostly bank dye and that's probably because when it'll price is falling people want either to catch and go into dye or what's even more possible is that CDP's they just want to protect their from getting liquidated and their start to repay their debt so that's why will we see spike in volume and spiking by price because there's obviously a bit we also have mean and median transaction values it this metric who went down from this year probably because there's much more users sub died protecting the mean is about few thousand five thousand million about two thousand and you can see again this is the converse effect when there are so many interactions but really small amounts were actually traded is not really traded but transferred the touken circulation again this is amount of dye tokens that circulate every day so the amount of tokens that actually are transferred and again it's picking up this tells you about the adoption itself it's it's connected with spikes as well like we saw before what's interesting to me is that about three to four or maybe five million tokens circulate each day with which is I don't know about five percent so velocity being about five percent that's that's pretty high for up for a token I think ether has about two percent or something so is trying to be medium of exchange token that's that's pretty cool on statistic that we see here okay um we have some top transactions but I'm not going to show it this nothing really relevant the next category CDP stats basically wanted to show the activity of CDP's from from locks free swipes and so on you can compare it with either price and what you can also do is you recalculate all the event types to die I prefer to use die because if you're looking what's happening with locks and freeze which are denominated in either it's much better to look through it I mean to show the dollar value that's why I choose die I'm want spend much time here but again you can see the Columbus affect a lot of Peter I mean a lot of the amount of flux was pretty high but if you look at the value itself nothing relevant right so this is the peas were just opened not much collateral was posted or died drawn of course locks are above freeze system was drawing much more collateral was was provided then freed similar in nominal terms in values we could see some countries recently this is connected with with larger CDP's Frink collateral which are going going to show later while why they were doing this so which we were doing this probably connected with refinancing with secondary platforms similar story with drawers and wipes coinbase effect here a lot of dye a lot of events of diam being drawn but in the nominal terms basically zero and again similar story some vibes recently but mostly we were seeing the Rose I won't go into details here open CD piece again cone base effect what's interesting that daily there are about forty CD is opened and it's pretty pretty constant right it's the trying to sing I mean the Amato syllabus is increasing this is one outlier here and see that the users these are basically new CDP's that you should apt well so you could see a lot of CDP's at rhombus issue that button the amount was really small and then we have CDP distribution so the amount of ether locked in the CDP mean and median you could see the mean was going down since New Year that's probably because there are more cities introduced with smaller amounts of hitter locked so more literally using cities and probably also because larger cities the wells were removing a lot of collateral especially in the last few months so this that's why this was dropping that's why the overall collateral go swapping we also have CDP distribution by locked heater value based on different type of CDT groups so you could say these are the retail which have zero to ten meter locked in the collateral and this would be some kind of wells above ten thousand interlocked in collateral or hundred thousand and what's interesting is that the recent drop in collateral was mostly performed by by Wells you could call it especially these two groups the purple and the brown line these were the guys who were actually freeing Peter and of course they were doing this because hitter value eater price went up and they just had too much collateral also because they wanted to monetize on the profits because they wanted to repay some debt yeah and it's it's interesting because if you look at a smaller city piece they weren't really free Inc much hitter it's it's more or less constant so the worst were the ones actually causing this collateral to drop the last few months we have pulled thither to ratchet the ratio not gonna stop here stability fee that's the one that's actually paid and not the one accrued and it's calculated T in dollars and we could see there was actually a record happening five days ago and this was connected with why CDP I'm going to show you later which wipes ten million dollars of depth in ten days and removed hundred thousand collateral so this is one of the biggest city piece what's interesting is that he actually in one chunk he paid so much maker what's also interesting is that he he he was playing the field with died actually so this this this event might be causing maker price going up I'm not sure what happened on that day we have bytes as well so this is connected with liquidations you could see recent bytes this is the the volume of them wasn't as highest as in last year but if you look at the amount of bytes it was quite high right and I would say that most of the liquidations that happened recently at the last hitter Enterprise drop boss was was affecting smaller CDP's worse in the history last year bigger CDP's were liquidated and I was checking the the collateralization ratios of bigger biggest see the piece is now much higher than it was last year it kind of seems that like they learned their lesson or something they are much more cautious than they were last year and smaller CDP's mostly get liquid got liquidated no so this is a graph of liquidations at what at what price of theater liquidations with the core how much depth would be brought back and number of CD piece I think there's a bar here pretty sure you need to fix this we also have liquidation distribution again by the classified by how big this CD piece are and obviously the Purple Line the biggest CD piece the the kerf is the steepest because it every increment price drop a filter there would be most of liquidations happening from their side so this is something to be aware of looking at them what are their price points to getting liquidated there's only one city over 100k I guess because there's only one point here but he is well collateralized at the moment so this is pretty much similar graph except that it looks at the share within each group I won't stop here mean liquidation price we just fixed this one oh no I don't have it now basically what I wanted to share the show is what's the mean liquidation price if if you don't consider distribution just how much weed eater price need to drop to have total portfolio liquidated if you just say okay there's the dye supply and we want 150 liquidation ratio how much would the enterprise need to drop to get liquidated it's not really relevant but it's good to see distance among them between them but the distance cannot be shown now because there are two different scale axes now so that I need to prepare this graph we have the event types again for draws wipes locks freeze and I'm going to spit freeze so the the eater dead got freed from collateral or removed I'm going to show you what happened like recently so this this is again classified into different buckets right this was the biggest CD piece the brown and purple ones and these are the smaller ones and as I said most of collateral was removed from bigger CD piece and this was actually one city pyramid in two days actually no it was in ten days so I guess there there are some other pelagic CDP doing the same he'll move thousand one hundred thousand theta and two so interesting to see that he actually traded the inter to repay the depth right so I guess this was this was happening like from 15 July till now and probably he was causing the the price back to go up because he was he was buying died to repay the debt after he was it prepared that he transferred the heater I think one part really stood up as well to compound so all the increase I mean not all increase but a lot of increase at secondary lenders such as compound that we saw in LA smarter last 15-20 days a lot who scores justjust by dctp we looked it on chain so interesting to see if he transferred ether there and then he just issued additional die I mean additional he basically refinanced the die from maker at component but he didn't issue only died he also issued us DC probably because the rates are are much smaller and of course he should die there because the rates are smaller as well but I haven't checked it if he then later sold that died obviously he had in takes then again built leverage but with amazing to see this as well but yeah I think what was happening last 20 days in relation to the back and relation to the secondary lenders was partially caused by it by this is okay next category we have collateral stats die supply and I think interest in it'll see the piece we know we reached peak in April and then it went down because there was a lot of heat removed he knew is this similar story but this includes heater price mmm and that the relation ratio of each we're focusing a lot on we know it peaked and now it went down because heater price went down also because there were a lot of ETA removed from collateral but what perhaps one of my most interesting charts is this one and they call it nominal collateralization ratio and it basically checks the amount of heater but not in dollar terms just just the amount of hitter versus died supply and the good thing about this graph is that it is relates from enterprise so captures the user behavior so that's something I wanted to see because user behavior you all know is one of the most important part that making risk assessment of total portfolio because they could they could protect from getting liquidated right and you could see the inverse relation when when Enterprise was dropping CDP's were either posting additional collateral to portfolio or they were repainted at once the enterprise started rising they either issued more directly because they were more bullish and partially they're also free freed up some collateral because it was worth more in in dollar terms right and this graph is quite cool and you can see the spike here right the last few weeks when Enterprise drops like immediately they posted additional collateral and they protected from getting liquidated so something that we probably going to use when we're going to model the user behavior which is one of the most important aspects of make increased assessments we have collateralization ratio again based based on different CDP sizes and again it's interesting to see how well so the biggest CDP's are most collateralized you can see here five five hundred six hundred percent and more right deserved the biggest ones and of course when they reach the high number they freed up some collateral they also the finest recently that's why you could see falling it down but yeah they are the ones which which make system more safe I guess in terms of how catalyze they are currently this is one graph that should be working here again this is the nominal collateralization ratio that I presented before I wanted to see the pattern again this number itself doesn't tell you anything it's just a pattern that you're interested to see how they behave and you could see that they all behave similarly except again for the bigger cities who were a bit more cautious here who at higher nominal collateralization ratio than the smaller ones let me go back August ability fear nothing important at the moment to analyze so this plan chart which is sourcing basically what we wanted to show is how much of the dye the dispute from CDP's is converted to eater and then put back in the collateral so like saying replacing the dye the depth or let's say putting collateral on leverage on top of other collateral that CDP's put right from their own sources and this blue line is actually tells you the number of theatres that was brought to collateral in addition to all collateral and that that was brought by them if I if I correct myself now the amount of hitter that came to collateral by trading dye so by leverage right so we know this part of collateral in maker Dow is purely on that right because people credit on it in hitter and then bring it back and I wanted to measure the share of it so to see how much of the ether in collateral is actually on leverage right was brought back on leverage and you could see this ratio this is actually this is percentages so it's 20 to 30 percent this is 31 percent you could see in the period when heater price was was rising people becoming really bullish right and they actually all the dye that they issued they immediately converted it and by the way this algorithm tracks tracks it in for 24 hours they immediately converted it into eater and brought it back into the system and it's good to detect when people are highly leveraging themselves and what sourcing relatively interesting is if this figure is like 20 30 percent makes kind of sense because the total depth is around 30% of collateral I'm not saying the toll of the depth ended in collateral bag but I would say 20% for sure and it's good to see again you can see the behavior of how people actually use CDP's for leverage long eater training so that's that's that's quite a good metric I would say but it's not perfect the algorithm is not like 100% we're not doing detective onto in work we just set the algorithm that tracks this events and I think it's quite open like me just a second go to the next step okay we have balances of die held this is something that comes handy when you want to identify the item and you can also check it for maker I'm gonna present died now I'm gonna stop here but I'm going to stop here to show you the number of holders that hold the die again this is for different groups you can see again the coin based effect small amount of coins many holders what you could also see is that 20 speaking up for retail which is good some kind of sign of adoption where's for whales for for other quarters probably market makers is it's more or less flat so it doesn't change us like holders of 1 million and above died it's only 14 15 of them but then we also have total holders balance so this one this one is really interesting because it basically shows you within the category how much died those those addresses hold and it's it's interesting when I saw this so degree the black line is total die supply and whenever the total die supplied fire force the balance that force is of course from largest addresses and that's because this has probably market makers died and you can see this here happening and happening here and lately as well and I'm not sure but I guess this could be a good process to measure in Kingman Tori's of market makers because I mean obviously not all of them are market makers with such high amounts but large fight they should be and they think you can't drag this by just comparing the I supply and or just just looking at their their holdings and what's happening with them so this is interesting to observe another very interesting thing we've been working on is holders breakdown so now our job would be to to detect all the dye holders and classify them who they are of course that's impossible but we were quite successful we were able to identify I think this is one third of addresses and we classified them into seven categories I'm sure others with other categories will follow such as market makers if you find them and so on point is we want to fill this blanket gap that's here as much as possible because the the other part is pretty much unknown and interestingly you can just see the balances below so you can just select let's say you want to see how much dye sell it on margin platforms and you could see it here and please be aware these are the unutilized to die on on landing platform so this is diff another you should die but the ones which are just sitting there which is good because if this part is increasing that's sign of I mean sign of a doctor sign of demand it's sign of fine utilized by which is positive for the demand and you can also look some interesting stuff such as I know tragedy you could see Aragon was piling up dying in their Treasuries which is great I checked centralized exchanges with quite a lot of dumb he'd be TC is the yeah he has three million of died then I think it's cuckoo and what's interesting is that fed BTC which supposedly has the largest volumes what what we were able to find in their wallets was twenty thousand died now I'm not sure I mean it could be that we missed some wallets it's possible but I'm pretty sure those volumes is just doesn't they're pretty suspicious with the wallets and activity we found with their addresses yeah that explains it yeah so that's basically it we're working on this one heavily and he's going to need a lot of work throughout the time because the dresses changes and so on and we have talked I holders okay three more tops it's gonna go quicker from now on yeah this is this this category we basically want to see how much of spare capital CDP on their scalp so you could imagine that CDP has addressed owner an address on which he issues die but the eater that he locks in collateral is slot into a smart contract but he might also have some other spare assets and that's something you're actually very interested in because it tells you about their capitalisation so how how good are their what they know a risk assessment of our CDP holder so to say in some terms and we want to actually measure amount of eater and ready to the hold because probably those numbers are the biggest but we're still working on this one so far we were able to include died and maker and you can basically check between different groups I'm going to select all CDP owners and you can check how much died or make her big hold currently under addresses and this is in dollar terms with 1.1 million dollars of maker and two hundred thousandth of the die now you would expect they don't hold much die because when the issue it they of course sell it they wouldn't hold innovate if they're paying interest rates unless the prices about one and they speculate but yeah most it is this number is low here is what it was a bit higher obviously because they were leveraging can they had this died inventory they needed to sell for either but what's what's interesting is the the value of maker right they hold on the addresses they have the holds only 1 million dollars of maker I think that's that's a low number considering how much interest they needs to pay so if they don't hold maker on some other addresses this would mean that if there's a debt repayment they will need to buy maker so this would obviously mean a positive sign for maker price I guess for maker token holders okay social stats so here you can actually follow what was happening on social media in the world of maker and I this context window you can select any given day you want and you can select the compact size and and of course with what keywords you want to be associate wants you to be this context associated either maker either died and you can also measure sentiment on various sources and that's the desired if charts above so I'm going to select dying to read it because read it gives you the most of the input so this algorithm actually takes this input from reddit and then make some kind of adjustments makes outputs if the comet is positive or negative and you could see that this algorithm is pretty good at this job because this is the balance between positive and negative die sentiment you could see when when it when USD when Dipak was struggling a bit the sentiment was much lower so the negative balance you could see negative balance here as soon as the Peck situation improved again the sentiment is again better and you could play with this you could you could select maker or maker plus die whatever you want sources telegram Twitter discourse professional traders chat rooms weather okay and the last chart still working on it make correct to supply and we have the annual burn rate so this is something this is again this is record repayment of debt and maker that was born this is the rate annualized it doesn't really make sense because this is this would be the rate of return if like every day of the year this would be happening I think currently it's more about two percent here because this chart doesn't include accrued interest and yeah so you shouldn't I mean this this chart could be deceiving just on that in front that could stand back and that's basically all from my side so should have I think why I I spent all the time rich gave me so if you have any questions we can talk down the rocket jet or you can find me on Twitter but we are going to probably present some other metrics from some other governments calls yeah that's it so far from mind well that was next we're gonna sorry to interrupt you Cyrus we're gonna stick around after the hour though some people have questions for pretty much wait till the end of its up in the air and we can dig into it sorry back to you sir yeah I just think that was awesome incredible work let's be sure to post this on the on the forum and in the rocket chat I think there's an enormous amount of information here to digests and I feel like we'll all be taking a look at these for the honestly weeks to come and have plenty of questions but this was this was truly amazing to watch Thanks so I guess let's let's finish up our agenda for the day and then we can maybe revisit this after the or get some questions in vishesh do you want to you want to present some stuff about the dye price yeah and and I'll go click I mean Lee just wanted to make sure pretty much got a good chance to go over all this great graphs so all right so I mean I think people got a good sense of a big chunk of the metrics this week so I'll just go quickly through dye price it's been fairly stable over the last 24 hours the spread was kind of evenly distributed around $1 slightly skewed down and then what's interesting is actually if you look at the last seven days it has pretty much been hovering you know just above and below a dollar so over the last seven days is netted out to actually slightly above it all or even though in the last 24 hours is slightly below so I would say pretty pretty darn balanced right now supply had come down to about 77 78 million less we've checked on it it's pretty much sat there one thing that I did want to kind of look at that was new this week and and I know we're going over a lot of new metrics a lot of new topics especially as we go into risk modeling so one of the things that I wanted to start to think about and get away from that simple collateralization ratio graph that we've been looking at every week is a more granular breakdown of risk so I had kind of from tweeted out this this graph here some of you may have seen it but essentially was just stratifying the dye supply by collateralization ratio buckets so all the CD piece all the dye that lives in them counted up and stratified into different effectively bands of risk and then graph that visually here's a stat graph to add back up to the dye supply and then you can also see here smoothed out a little bit over like a seven day moving average so it's really interesting to see you know this kind of goes in tandem with what promotion was showing as that dye supply kind of grows even though collateralization ratio shot up from you know 350 you know 300 percent to almost 500 percent and then back down to around 450 percent let's now come down a little bit lower he doesn't tell the whole story because it's really not the greatest measure of risk because risk actually more is weighted more heavily on the lower collateralization ratios and much less on the higher in ratios above you know 500% collateralization there's very little to no risk right it would take a tremendous drop in eath price to create negative outcomes for maker holders so then what we really want to be visualizing is how much of the debt is really living in this kind of red zone and so that's that's kind of roughly what this strives to do is to say how much of the debt is below say two hundred percent conversation or three hundred percent collateralization and that is a much better tracking of the aggregate amount of risk in the system these as promotion shown there's a bunch of large CDP's that are very heavily collateralized and so those actually carry much less risk with them and so it's really interesting to see is like actually kind of in tandem with what promotional showing again where his graph showed spikes in quote-unquote leveraging behavior around September and December that actually corresponds very well with the amount of debt that lives below say you know 300% collateralization those those values were at their highest around September and December and have come down fairly significantly since then and you can see just this huge growth kind of funny enough aligned with the explosion of secondary lending platforms they a growth in the percentage of CPS or rather the percentage of debt that lives at an extremely high collateralization ratio so it's possible and this would take a lot more investigation that those secondary lending platforms actually disproportionately took on riskier loans for maker right so we know we've seen I've shown that there was a lot of refinancing behavior but it would be really interesting then to understand if it was disproportionate refinancing where some of the more risk seeking CDP owners were the ones that refinance to secondary lending platforms which would make sense with you know lower collateral requirements liquidation penalties ratios things like that so it does make sense that maker has some of the more conservative whisper angers out there right now so it would actually attract some of the less risky lenders and borrowers so that's that's a really interesting thing to double-click on just to touch on one other point here and sorry there's a little two-day break in the graph there but the the fees so a lot of people checked out maker burn Primos touched on this but the aggregate amount of unpaid fees has continued to grow as we all know that actually dipped a bit and there is a huge spike in the amount of paid fees just you know in mid-july which you know corresponds to a lot of the volatility the liquidations the repayments that we saw and supply coming down pretty significantly in that same time frame so again apologies show that break in the graph but the the conclusion here is that the paid fees have actually they shot up right in the middle of July they're to kind of re pace with the unpaid fees so you could kind of see the unpaid fees were increasing in a much higher rate before but with this sort of rapid increase and sort of a leveling off of unpaid fees due to a significant decrease in supply and as I'd shown previously with the circulation graphs a lot of that supply was with older debt before so those older CDP's had a much higher proportion of the unpaid fees because they've been crew debt for quite a while and and somebody had recently shared in the maker chat their breakdown of unpaid fees versus potential liquidation penalties and and they'd shown that you know the unpaid fees don't in any cases come close to exceeding the liquidation penalties so that's not like a realistic concern at the moment um so this is this is I think it's really positive for for maker holders because they're realizing more of those revenues and there's less risk of sort of unrealized riveters so those are positive stats to touch on the secondary lending platforms again real quick because this is I think promotion tested on one of the Maker stats so so for the secondary lending there was kind of this run-up in the rates and the utilization on these secondary lending platforms just at the end of July there that has come down a little bit so that's pretty interesting the dye supply overall has come down and the the 20.5% civilian fee is kind of held so there wasn't a change there that could have could have caused an increase in supply and potentially an increase in supply and secondary lending platforms but what's interesting is it was not moved so this is just kind of stabilization from what's been going on with eath price and i think some degree of delayed effects which was something that I was kind of stressing last week it's given some time some of these metrics do tend to level out which is I think basically what we've been seeing happen because the dye price you know which was sitting above had come below and then gone back above so given a little bit of time to oscillate it does sort of even out to about a dollar and then on the secondary lending platforms even though this utilization was peaking sort of as the dye supply came down a bit the evil ization on these secondary lending platforms came down a bit as well and so the the excess supply here sort of shot up relatively recently which is pretty interesting so without significantly more dye being minted suddenly Sigma decent amount of dye was supplied to secondary learning platforms and the borrow volume has kind of been pretty perfectly flat it came up slightly and then came back down a bit so overall it has been kind of flat over the last you know we ten days so what that kind of means is even though there isn't significantly more demand for dye there isn't really more diving are owed the overall float of dyes actually more dye was added into secondary lending platforms which means presumably there was some large purchase of dye and someone is holding the bag on that 20.5% Swilly fee and someone else just obtained a large quantity and supplied it to secretary let me problems is the most reasonable explanation okay so there's kind of your condensed version this week again shameless promotion open to questions afterwards happy to double click on anything I know it was a fair amount pretty quickly and we're approaching the top of the hour here so I'm not sure if we have any other formal presentations please everyone be we're happy to stick around for another half hours so stick around Matthew we still have to get into your weekly narrative as well do you want to start that now or do you want to uh you ready to keep that up I mean basically that the main point which we talked about a little bit earlier was related to the voting they're really kind of three or four points to talk about related to the voting spell and you know the desire to have some semblance of an exploration or a lifespan as it relates to when we when when a spell is submitted and if it doesn't get implemented within X period of days we month whatever the number is we all agree on that it somehow finds a way to expire and it's an area that we have right now where it's um 78,000 maker committed to one given cell you know today that's something the community can overcome right now three counts and some-odd maker and the burner wallet not that big of a deal when that number you add a zero to that as time goes on it becomes a larger and ever-present harder issue to get rid of than the ability to muster the number of maker to get rid of it the easier solution was just to have spells expire and it's I you know there was a forum post there was people went back and forth and apparently there's a way to implement it technically I don't understand the nuances but it's something that the apathy related to voting is one thing apathy ability to be even able to vote is one that you know without being too dramatic it can present an existential threat unless we address it that in in concert with the fact you know right now we have the pegs it's more or less holding and the stability fee is still you know elevated but functional the question really however now is after an enormous amount of refinancing which is a very healthy sign in an economic system you know we've never been the size never had the amount of dye issues that we have right now and if we find ourselves in a scenario where demand is driving the shift not really our ability to restrain the outstanding supply if the peg starts to break upward by default we will be that the natural response would be to lower that stability the to cause the creation of more die – then we harmonize the price but by doing that and we have no data to support you know what the elasticity would be in terms of how much dye we needed to be minted or created to keep that peg I'm the broken record on saying the debt ceiling is a subject matter that really needs to be addressed sooner than later especially as demand goes if demand really is driving the shift now you've mentioned for a number of times that the portal is you know coming and if it comes relatively soon it's kind of like not an issue if we get ourselves where that that portal gets delayed the ability to vote gets delayed and our ability to get signal from the community it becomes a much greater issue to have what priority of what vote needs to happen each week because we're locked into one vote one signal or a poll and then one signal to actually make a decision and put it completely in serial then there's a much more pressing issue I think that doesn't look like it's an issue but I think it rapidly could become one and the other points I can bring up in the chat session after the banks yeah I agree with you math Yunus that's a good possibly it's an interesting segue we can circle back to promotion vishesh questions but as far as governance goes I'm always hesitant to offer promises about launch dates but let's call this like a 98 percent confidence level that next week the new portal will be launched and once that new portal comes out the globe's basically come off on what it is we're capable of doing with governance as a community and we're going to start talking about some things and then we have a lot we've identified issues with the ecosystem we've identified improvements some of the examples are let's talk about exponential rates stepping let's talk about changing the cadence of the votes let's talk about XY and Z is talking about the debt ceiling they've we've been comfortably living in the world of theoretics theoretical at this point that's going to change because once the the new quarter was there we're going to start digging into these things and I think that that that activity is going to happen in the forum and we need to make a concerted effort to start digging up some of these potential polls that we've been discussing over the last couple months and figuring out how we get them into a cleaned up State and refined and then starts seriously considering putting them into the polling system those polling systems do we know if it's we're going to be potentially exposed to that same type of spell lack of expiration issue with that new system well that does so yeah that's another great point because this is something that needs to be talked about as well because as far as like I trying to pay as much attention as I possibly can it's been a busy couple weeks to the chat into the forum I've seen some discussions that there's different options at work here and this is something that we've we've identified for a while as a problem and I've seen it myself when I've tried to run scripts against the chain to figure out who did what when and the first time I did that I was horrified to learn that there's still somebody who's taking their maker against the 0.5% stability fee increase which was the first one we ever did we need to figure out what to do with these it's presumably abandoned blocks of maker and there's their different options on the table we can either just set a time limits like maybe after six months that maker just gets that back to your wallet maybe after three months that maker can be poked by a keeper it says like kay this this maker is not participating anymore let's put it back into that person's wallet there's also the possibility that when an executive is voted in and another executive was voted in there's no going back anyway so all of the maker that's no longer applicable can come back there's lots of options on the table here we need to think about it though no you can't do anything sort of arbitrarily the biggest point I guess that's important is that we get a vote and we get clear signal that fixing the issue is something that needs to get fixed yeah I write in it that starts obviously that starts in the in the forum so I think that you referenced the forum thread about this that I haven't actually stumbled on yeah that could be I could be post that cool yeah we need to figure out what that looks like because there's game theory that work here we need to think about there is also signaling network can't really think of it there's and there's there's more there's more options out there like it doesn't need to actually be a contract change it could be somebody throws up a webpage this says like hey look at all this maker like that just puts them visibility on stale and or abandoned stake weight and which gives the community an opportunity to do some awareness campaign type stuff as opposed to part of your art form article makes a great technical argument and I'm all for helping to try and think with the key point I'm trying to bring up more than anything is the humanity side of this develop a system that's not designed only run a year but really did die bhaktavar run several decades or who knows how long it'll run the humanity of all of that starts to kick in and no one wants to be the guy who gets hit by a bus but we really hope the guy who's got a gal who's got 78 maker doesn't get hit by a bus right now yeah that's another interesting but I think that the entire crypt of space in the hole hasn't quite wrap their heads around what happens to abandoned tokens so it's not just a maker problem as a dipole in this moment people talk about every once in a while in a scenario that's so essential for voting with this with the intent of active vibrant voting it becomes more acute yeah there's there's yeah I was gonna say there's also see Mooney put up a comment that actually looked at the new das chief and multilateral die and I think that this case they were experiencing in single collateral die is actually like it's prevented in the code by not letting previously lifted proposals to the Hat be lifted again I think that's what the code says I'm not a coder but like just looking at it I pretty sure that that's what that's what it means but for those of you that are interested I linked is clear that removes the surprise aspect but it still doesn't address the the stale and or abandoned probably just it just and this method raises a good point that potentially we we need to move sticker back sticker maker back and forth in order to secure the system and if a whale or a consortium of whales or the delegate systems come into effect and then that maker gets abandoned and or stuck on a proposal that we can't overcome as a community that's a huge problem so I think that – it's not a unsolvable problem because at that point there's there's drastic solutions that are available we can vote to slash that abandoned maker and I don't even want to consider the the fallout that would occur in that situation but there's things we can do but in the short term we need to get into the forum and all align and start collecting some really good ideas and then figure out what the best wait for it is I'm kind of partial to the poking stale stuff but we need to figure out whether it's a it's a transparency issue we just a read-only page somewhere or whether this is something that the resurrects this conversation that we've had over the course of last or maybe oh it's been a while since we talked about this but we have a situation now in our ecosystem where well yeah and Krypton in general that there's no way to notify people what's going on in the crypto world there's no push mechanisms in this world because what if for whatever crypto anarchic reasons people are not attaching email addresses to their theorem addresses of letting people know that something is up is tough we can't push people have to poll and this might be another mechanism where somebody from the community or somebody from yeah exactly somebody from the foundation comes up with a mechanism to notify people that something has happened in with their with their maker with their CDP was with died in general it's it's a it's a tough problem I think so do we want to move to Q&A for Primos and yes that's good to me a David was there somewhere there are some questions in the chat related to those presentations ah no I didn't see any explicit questions in the chat but I did have a question for the shesh about the phenomenon of more excess dye showing up on compound now over time so like I guess I'll just ask my question right so do you think that now since that amount of dye excess dye is increasing and the borrow rate is decreasing it's gonna kind of cause like this positive feedback loop of even more people refinancing their debt from maker doubt to compound and thus further decreasing the total dye supply it's cuz like yeah like do you see kind of the cyclical continuous cycle that happens until like an actual demand floor is reached so the first thing to think about I think is the pathway like how I think we tend to focus on like prices and supply values but I think thinking about the physical like pathways for obtaining these assets and how they wind up where they do is extremely important for understanding this stuff so for example if you think about if you know if supply is actually contracting and at the end of the day the amount of the amount of dye that lives on maker is has not significantly changed and the amount of dye being borrowed on secondary lending platforms has not significantly changed then you have to think about what did change and I think this goes back to some of the leverage graphs that we were showing so the CDP distribution graphs that I'd shown or or some of Promotions graphs on dye for eath trades like in the last seven days the stat was about twenty-eight million died sold for eath that's not insignificant volume for a seven-day period there has definitely been hired as definitely lower it's sort of middling range but there is very little price movement so there were a couple of spikes in both directions but that tends to happen when somebody is kind of desperately trading on a very high time preference and so they incur a lot of slippage or they end up sort of depleting the order book all of a sudden and they experience either particularly higher particularly low prices so that that tends to happen with die because I think the liquidity on these order books is low it's relatively thin and so in in short time frames it does experience a fair amount of impermanent market impact from either selling or buying behavior so my point is I think the most reasonable expectation if none of those other stats have significantly changed in the past week is that there was some deleveraging someone kind of gave up on there you know ii 'the long position and so sold some died and either either got a really good rate for it or took a haircut because they were the one who had the high time preference in aterna sell quickly there were some trades that went down into like 95 cents so given that i think it was just someone somewhere sold a significant amount of dye and then someone else bought it up and decided to supply it on a secondary lending platform to get some rate to get some interest out of it i don't think it's like a big macro trend or anything is my point and i think this is sort of fluctuation is actually does touch on your question this sort of fluctuation will continue to happen where the utilization on these secondary lending platforms will go up the rates will go up then somewhere somehow some more dye will be sourced some oversupply will find its way on to secondary lending platforms rates will go down a little bit and then you'll you'll kind of oscillate through this I think too the extent that some oversupply exists and so I think this is just an indicator that like okay a little bit of oversupply does still exist which means given the supply went down significantly the man did take a hit cool thanks open Excel I had a I had a question for promotion the very beginning of the presentation you said that there is a little thing that smoothes the data what is it what is smoothing in the data mean so we just calculates the moving average so simple moving average is just averages the last I know it's like seven days and it makes average of seven days so the the line is much more smoother got it you so maybe actually I'll ask a question of Primos or we can just kind of start a topic discussion one of the things that I've been looking at is and I've shown this a couple weeks ago was transaction volume of dye so transaction volume of dyes picked up rather significantly especially compared to trading volume the dye which has kind of been low to middle ingrained for it's like long term average so to me this is primarily as a result of a lot more usage in smart contracts and a lot more dye sort of being passed back and forth through the defy ecosystem but one of the the metrics that I've tracked over time is the amount of dye that's being held by CDP owners and and so it's interesting to then talk about completing the cycle on that for you know selling dye for eath and so you know you and you'd mentioned that one of the metrics that you were tracking was the addresses that own CDP's that then go and sell dye so you can for each so you can track the the leveraging behavior um I found that very very low like all-time high like four percent of dye is actually held by CDP owner addresses so maybe you can pretty much answer a little bit about how you think about tracking how that dye moves hands if it moves like multiple addresses right so people may have multiple contracts or multiple addresses that daisy chain ownership of those CDP's and subsequently like where that dye you know changes hands so right now what I'm thinking is that very little dye is held by CDP owners I enlarge when they are minting guy they are passing it off rather quickly you have any thoughts on that is that what you're seeing as well yeah yeah the the inventory that you're talking about they call it the inventory so that's the amount of dye that the home nurse called is pretty low I mean I showed now it's 200 thousand before a time point it was five million and I guess the inventory gets higher when when they are leveraging more right because some some CDP's are pretty sophisticated and the do transaction in actually in you could see it in same cash they just issue it and they just send it to exchange and it's done so we don't see it on the address really or it's like immediately happening but some they they they they trade it really slowly so they always have some amount so they don't you like one middle of the eye and then they have this dye on their address and then they sell it but what they do they issue I don't know 50 thousands of dye because that's the only thing they could sell at the moment because the markets are still not dead like it and they don't want the slippage and then they do this in small increments right that's why when you do a snapshot of a CD burner dye Holdings it's actually pretty small at the moment but if you if you like with it we checked in 24 hours and you just sum it up and then you see how how much they bring back the number is is much much higher right because it's is this time difference that's how these things are happening does this satisfy or answer your question yeah that answers my question cool it also follows like the logical act of irrational lender or borrower right if you're borrowing against your asset simply holding the dyeing your own wallet burning interest doesn't really make sense either at some points we saw five million of died in the inventory song I guess at some points some people don't mind holding it for some time can you can you go back to or can you talk about the chart that had the mean liquidation value the difference between that the one where you said the axis was messed up on the left side I don't quite catch what that was but it sounded interesting mm-hmm it's not really that interesting oh no yeah because it's the mean that's why Ivan let me try to find it here so you mean this one yeah yeah yeah this tells you how to put it so let's say I supply whatever it is 25 million and you would say collateralization ratio is of course 50% higher so you would multiply with 1.5 until it gets to a number what 100 million and something and then you would say okay was the collateral the hole Collider in the in the portfolio how much is it worth and I think currently it's I need to check but I think it's yeah it should be 300 million and then you say okay if price drops by 50 percent like like here when you measure the distance from whatever 200 either price to 88 all the depth would be liquidated because but you're looking just at the mean right so okay I got it yes it's not it's not that relevant because this wouldn't happen because you have some syllabus which are more collateralized some less but the distance between two kind of makes sense I mean to have them average portfolio picture the risk assessment isn't that just a correlation ratio yeah basically it is yeah yeah it's more or less the same thing I guess okay yeah that's what I thought I was just making sure I don't know if it's more than that or not okay that's cool there's a lot to go over here we're gonna some time going through these charts you get you also mentioned that you guys were working on some other stuff like you guys already have future roadmap ideas for more metrics any idea for what those might be like no but I mean as soon as we started this I so how many stuff could be developed or shown so it just happens through the time probably the the biggest challenge will be identifying dye holders as much as we can it's a bit of detective work and you need to readjust addresses and so on right it's you know it's good to have it we could have we could have ad signalling good because basically we have on a platform identification and signals anomalies or important events so if it's really a request for this kind of feature yeah I just want to mention that it'd be handy to have important signals or a hyper relevant tab like a snapshot of the health of the system some there's some particular views and I think might be useful because there a lot of things to click through in that page so you would mean there is a kind of health check and then some flags where you select okay let me know if something on this screen which I believe important like it just suddenly changes above the threshold or specific percentage or something this direction yeah I think I think dashboard to be a blessing the alerting mechanism is something that was annexed no no I just wanted to say that what's what's perhaps missing is there's so many charts and of course not all of them are really relevant some of them really make sense to look at them now and then but some of them could be like Houston daily basis and obviously we would need like a front-end dashboard just to focus on those I guess and then signals and so on yeah I think we've already internally brainstorm some ideas for what a front-end public like a public facing almost like a retail dashboard would look like so there's an average user coming on to an analytic site I think they'd want to see some of the more important CDP statistics stability fees across the various collateral types DSR when it comes and then I think for example at a just speaking at a glance I think some metrical distribution of dye is useful so there's 90 million and 10 million of it is in comm or or whatnot inventories for market makers if that's the thing may be anonymized yeah you're onto something then we can look at it by demographic so like I'm a voter and what do I care about i order in the stability for you here's my single pane of glass or i'm a risk analyst for or i'm pretty interesting the DSR here's my single pane of glass that would be really cool right stuff like that um so yeah maybe we can sync up offline and and discuss some ideas around that especially especially when there's going to be multiple collateral types it's gonna be interesting actually if you think about it imagine this whole website times 100 collateral times all right we're coming up on this 30 minute mark of the Q&A aspect of the call I think this might be a handy place to end the meeting um thanks very much for the presentation there's a lot to digest I'm hoping that we'll see some more interesting graphs in the future calls thank you once again for shesh and David and Matthew for your presentations please continue the discussion in the forums have a look at the the signal requests for what the asset party list might look like and have a have a poke around because there's a lot of interesting chats going on in there and a lot of decisions that need to be made and touching on Matthews point we have a series of polls that we have identified in the last couple of months and in the next couple weeks we're gonna be able to act on those so let's put some effort into resurrecting those threads and maybe refining them for implementation all right thanks everybody that's that's it for for this week see you next week

Maurice Vega

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Post comment