Could We See a Repeat of the 2008 Election in 2020?



hey guys welcome back today's video today is Friday June 7th 2019 and today we're gonna be looking at the 2020 presidential election electoral map and determine whether or not we could see a repeat of what we saw in the 2008 presidential election when Senator John McCain lost to Senator at the time president now President or former President Barack Obama so looking at the electoral map it was an absolute blowout for the Democratic Party they got a near 60 seat majority in the United States Senate expanded their seats in the House representatives passed 250 seats winning a seat in states like Idaho and a number of other states dominating in the south as well and then looking at if we're just looking at the overall I guess push the country definitely took a leap towards the Democratic Party not a step but a leap and if we're looking at this map there are a lot of states that are very very close and the reason why I'm thinking about this is number one because we have a former 2008 candidate we have Joe Biden running in the 2020 race and I think that could be pretty interesting throwing him his name into this entire video not just Tim but also candidates like him or new candidates like Bernie Sanders Tulsi Gabbard Elizabeth Warren and also looking at the margins then because if we look at the I guess approval ratings of the president a lot of these states that are blue here that were red in 2016 are showing negative approval ratings for the president now that may just be by chance but if we're looking at a number of states like Kansas states like Missouri they aren't too fond of the president and they should be solid Republican states in 2008 it was an amazing election for the Democratic Party they came within 0.1 percent of winning in Missouri narrowed down even John McCain's home state of Arizona got very close to winning in Montana narrowed down up across that red wall except for Oklahoma so we're just looking the Democratic Party definitely did a lot better and if we're looking at a number of these margins well Michigan was safe compared to Pennsylvania Wisconsin Mission Minnesota which were all likely it's just very interesting looking at these election results they definitely held a lot of good news for the Democratic Party so the question stands could we see a repeat of 2008 in 2020 well that really all depends there are a number of states that could every well go to the Democratic Party from the 2008 map states include New Hampshire Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa Ohio Virginia Florida and North Carolina Colorado Nevada a lot of these states you can expect to go to the Democratic Party now of course are some states that are probably not gonna go for the Democrats those states include states like Indiana but other than that a lot of these other states are pretty realistic including Nebraska's second District now I wouldn't exactly say that Joe Biden would make West Virginia close or Bernie Sanders would make West Virginia close but there are some Trump voters that made me more maybe more inclined to vote for let's say Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump in certain states but over looking at the entire electoral map Barack Obama definitely was able to narrow down a number of these states from what we're used to seeing we're used to seeing a lot more safe Republican states including states like Missouri in Indiana that are now closed or democratic on this map and keep in mind this was about ten years ago so 11 years ago this election occurred a get that seems like a pretty long time but that's only two elections we're coming up on our third since then but if we're looking at that she doesn't name map compared to 2020 just 2016 completely I guess a huge churn okay we look at Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania all Republican states Ohio Indiana Iowa Missouri North Carolina Florida all of these as four Republican states as well very very interesting now if we're looking at the map itself well looking around the Sun Belt this could be a very likely scenario this is not unrealistic whatsoever in fact you could probably expect Arizona and Texas to be narrower in this election so let's actually move that into the lean column Colorado Nevada you cut Nevada you'd probably expect to go into the lean column for the Democratic Party but other than that that's generally the same the state wins are around the same looking up across the red wall here the only change I would make for the 2020 election would be Nebraska's second you could pretty much expect that one to go narrowly for the for the Republican Party but I'm gonna put that one in the Democratic column for right now and revert the numbers here just so you guys would have an understanding with it she doesn't eat map was like but yeah I'm looking at those states that's pretty much the only changes I would make now looking over here you Russell is an amazing area for the Democratic Party I do not see them carrying Indiana I do not see any of them getting close in Missouri so those are two states that you can narrow out away from the GOP but these states themselves definitely are going to be very contested I'm not going to think miss Michigan or Wisconsin or from Minnesota Pennsylvania are gonna be 1213 17-point margins for the case in Minnesota not Minnesota's sorry Michigan but I do think that these states definitely could get as actually not as good for the Democratic Party but still in favor of the Democratic Party joined by Indiana sorry not by India Iowa and Ohio I think that the Democratic Party does not have a chance at Indiana or Missouri which is why characterize both of those as safe Republican states actually and now Missouri is going to revert back looking at the south there's not much there's not much to see here these are just swing states I went for the Democrats Florida North Carolina and Virginia but it was a big deal because North Carolina last went for the Democrats in 90 and 64 I believe also Virginia back in 64 Florida I believe was 96 that was the last time so it was pretty big a pretty big deal seeing a lot of these states turn red to blue and also Virginia going from a presumably solid or likely Republican state all the way into a likely Democratic state that is also something that changed in short for ears from Bush to Obama now ever looking there that's also an area we're not seeing too many abnormalities it's just the only abner abnormality in this entire map would probably be the margins for the Republican state states like South Carolina and Mississippi West Virginia Montana we wouldn't expect those margins in today's day and age but the winner wasn't around the same looking up in the Northeast that's also very consistent with what we see in today's elections the Democratic candidates winning in here whether it's the Senate governor elections here some of those are some safer democratic states that have Republican governors which is pretty interesting but still generally around the same results as we'd expect the only state that could we could characterize necessarily as completely off would probably be Indiana but other than that this is a pretty realistic Matt let's say Indiana goes to the GOP this could very well be a map that we could see in 2020 if Donald Trump loses pretty badly this is not a likely scenario but it is a possible scenario adding Indiana and really stretches the whole I guess they argue the argument that it could be a possible reality but now looking without Indiana this seems like a very possible reality I'm not saying this is going to happen but if the Democratic Party is able to play all of their cards right this could be an eventual scenario I'm not saying that these margins are gonna stand true but there definitely could be a narrowing in a number of states and I gained for the Democratic Party even in some of those Trump states for 2016 such as Iowa Ohio Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not only there the Democratic Party does have a shot at states like North Carolina in Florida though it's not likely again it is still possible and if they were to win it would be by around that margin a lean margin I don't really expect anything else or better for the democratic or republican parties in both of those states so you can expect both of those to you know fluctuate between candidates in terms of polling data but still pretty much lean in favor of the GOP so right now if we're looking at let's say a Biden type candidate he definitely could be the best candidate to hold on to a map like this he was the one closely closest to Obama he would be able to bring out minority voters in states like Virginia North Carolina and Florida what if we're looking around a number of these states you know we would expect to go would be a little bit more lenient on the Democratic Party sees the Arizona would definitely be a lot more inclined to vote for a Democratic candidate on a presidential level than Kansas or Nebraska and you can really see that if we look at Arizona's voting history in fact have recently elected a Democratic senator in 2018 which is very very interesting yeah it wasn't a special Senate election coming up in the 2020 election martha mcsalley is running again but yeah looking at that this is just ever looking at the electoral map itself it's pretty much an example of what the Democratic Party could do if they had a pretty good scenario – Indiana I think Indiana's a stretch but if we're looking at this isn't the best case for the Democratic Party they definitely could carry all these states and more they definitely would be I have a real shot at states like Arizona or Georgia possibly even Texas depending on the candidate so it's not likely there's a very small possibility but still possibility regardless but looking at this map it's not too unrealistic 2008 I just don't think will be an exact embodiment of what we might see but the Democratic Party does pretty well we could see an electoral map this way so if we're looking back 2008 there were different electoral numbers I'm pretty sure Obama got 365 and McCain got 173 if I'm not mistaken well now would be a little bit more in favor of McCain at 179 and the Democratic Canada at 359 I mean again the strongest Democratic candidate that I think could actually pull this off would either be Biden or Sanders but other than that you can't really see Elizabeth Warren winning in all of these states unless something changes between now and general election let's say if she is the nominee or things anything really changes it would just all depend on the candidate but the two strongest candidates we could actually see having a close to similar reality for the election if they play all their cards right keep that in mind would be Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders so that pretty much finalizes today's video thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

39 Responses

  1. Here is why this is so funny <> All the Presidents behind Trump are related except two Yea Yea SEARCH Bush Obama cousins /// (( Controlled Opposition )) this can't happen by accident people / Hand pick Presidents !! We can't have a repeat ,the Globalist didn't win,America did and this is a whole new ball game and not like any other elections , Trump is not like the past Presidents , Bottom line is your Democrat Anti America Party just doesn't have the legal votes to win in 2020 and they never did (( Legally )) they know it so they will try to change the rules EXAMPLE using reality <> The House was taken by Nazi Pelosi and gang by making one of their voter fraud crimes legal in key states, ,we looked because they don't have the legal votes to win elections ( Public Records) SEARCH Ballot Harvesting < They simply made a crime legal and now the House is under voter fraud rule and it has demands , If you can't ((( legally ))) win just change the rules ? There is no fight with the Democrat or Republicans it is what is hiding in them , kinda like the cult of Islam hiding in Religion , A huge snake with many heads Assimilated America can't legally lose in 20/20

  2. Oh man is 2O2O going to be another open seat year like 2OOO and 2OO8? The incumbent has been reelected every time since 198O except for Bush Sr which was Reagan's 3rd term.

  3. I ve watched few of your videos and I need to say that your videos are bad for a number of reasons.
    First you constantly use pool numbers… the same pull number that said Trump won t win in 2016 and are again saying he wont win in 2020.
    Second, you portrate the map as you want it to so you want to turn more and more states blue cuz you like your democratic party.
    Pls do some data less fake polls and more reasonable videos… cuz this is just terrible and trash…. you have extreemly unaccurate videos and predictions…

  4. Trump is going to win again. The economy is doing quite well. People will look at that as a major factor in voting next year. He really has done what he said he would do…and that's making America great again for everybody.

  5. Trump’s base is shrinking daily. All of his “give him a chance” voters are gone and he can’t win on the nihilistic cult that is his base which only makes up 35% of the electorate. The Trump presidency was a house of cards to begin with: there had to be a perfect storm of one-time factors to get him elected and if you remove any of them, Hillary is president right now.

    You had Russian interference/Wikileaks, James Comey issuing the letter in October, depressed Democratic turnout in the cities, Bernie Sanders voters voting for Jill Stein, clueless independents who had delusional expectations for what a Trump presidency would be like, the “anti-establishment” morons who thought electing a racist, corrupt grifter would magically change the system, and every racist in America turning out for Trump.

    All we have to do is turn out Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee at their usual levels and that gets Biden to 278. Everything after that is just icing on the cake. The fact is that nobody outside Trump’s cult base approves of this shitshow of a presidency. That's what happened in the midterms: Republicans only got their base, everyone else voted for Democrats.

    Considering the economy will likely be in a recession by November 2020, that will definitely be the final nail in Trump’s coffin. His supporters (who again are a cult) are so blinded by their own racism that the only way they’ll abandon their idiot leader is if they get hit in their wallets.

    Anyway, Trump’s behavior is deteriorating his base and energizing Democrats and independents who are sick and tired of this crap because they see that this is the most corrupt administration in American history. Turnout is expected to be at 67% and we all know that high turnout benefits Democrats; why else would Republicans be trying to block black people from voting with voter ID laws and voter roll purges?

    2020 for the Republicans is going to be what 1980 was for the Democrats. Trump is going to lose badly and hopefully spend the rest of his life in prison. The only way to prevent future Trumps is to prosecute the current one.

  6. Joe Biden a) doesn't have Obama's charisma b) would be running against a sitting president not an open race c) and has the same centrist ideology that cost Hillary 2016

  7. Jump on the band wagon & vote Trump out. Help save America !
    Join the farmers, factory workers, fishermen, and truckers.
    Who's next on Trump's hit list ? Long shore men & dock workers ?

  8. It comes down to six states: FL, NC, OH, PA, WI, MI. Tell me, if you can, which of these states, which are now experiencing economic growth and 3.6% unemployment, will vote against Trump, having voted against Hillary? And, of course, this assumes that Trump fails to win any new states. If the dems put another walter mondale up there, like Liawatha or Crazy Uncle Bernie, Trump will win the popular vote, too, which will give him the states, like Colorado, who recently pledged their delegates to the popular-vote winner. The only reason Hillary did as well as she did was the lack of a formidable third-party candidate. If Crazy Uncle Bernie or Schultz go third party, Trump will waltz into another four years.

  9. I would say it would look more like the 1984 election than 2008. Trumps approval rating is higher than any president in the past 30 years.

  10. Lol the democraps have multiple candidates against Trump. If the democrats had a candidate with a JFK mentality and style then yes I'd vote for him or her. Kennedy was the last true Democrat from that party and paid his life for it. That party is nothing more then crazy, internal conflict and calling on its supporters to attack Republicans and anyone who goes against them. My vote is for President Donald Trump.

  11. Yes!!!!! vote andrew yang!!!!!! he's strong enough to energize his base enough among asians to take trump down

  12. I'm telling you!!!!! andrew yang must win the nomination in 2020!!!! he can beat trump in a huge landslide victory.

  13. Vote Yang!!!!! Vote Warren Or Vote De Blasio in 2020!!!!!!!! Not No Darn Bernie!!!!! Beto!!!!! Buttigieg!!!!! Harris!!!!! Or Gillibrand!!!!!

  14. No, due to changes in state partisanship we could not see this map where the democrat gets 365 electoral votes. However a very plausible outcome could be a map where the democrat gets 413 electoral votes but again, this is a best case scenario. The one exception is Buttigieg.

  15. If andrew yang should win the nomination in 2020!!!!! he will finally turn michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin blue!!!!!!
    even though if yang turns the deep south, i mean georgia, arizona, florida, north carolina and texas blue.

  16. No matter what democrat wins the nomination and the white house in 2020, why they afraid of,
    they should nominate yang and beat trump!!!!! they should nominate de blasio and beat trump!!!!!! and
    finally they should nominate warren and beat trump!!!!!!!!!!!!. please nominate a centrist democrat!!!!

  17. Andrew yang could carry nevada, ohio, pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin blue!!!!!#Yanggang #YANG2020

  18. 2020!!! i'm so sick and tired of trump!!! vote all the republicans out!!!!!! vote trump out!!!!!
    i will be happy if is a democratic president who could beat him is yang, warren and de blasio.

  19. I will fear too about trump gonna win reelection in 2020!!!!! no way!!!! i'll be stunned if trump wins again in 2020!
    trump will definitely lose in 2020.

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