Brexit Update with Professor John Rogers | Connecting Point | Sept. 4, 2019


>>>BREXIT WAS A REFERENDUM THAT
PASSED IN JUNE OF 2016 AND THE TERM REFERS TO THE BRITISH EXIT
FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION. BUT OVER THE COURSE OF THREE
YEARS, THERE’S BEEN PUSHBACK, NEGOTIATIONS AND DELAY. BRITISH PRIME MINISTER BORIS
JOHNSON HAS VOWED TO LEAVE THE E.U. ON OCTOBER 31st, WITH OR
WITHOUT A DEAL WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION. HOWEVER, YESTERDAY HE FACED A
STUNNING DEFEAT IN HIS FIRST MOVES TO DO SO. BREXIT HAS ECONOMIC, POLITICAL,
AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS, AND STRONG OPINIONS ON BOTH SIDES. CAROLEE McGRATH SAT DOWN WITH
ECONOMICS PROFESSOR JOHN ROGERS FROM AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL
COLLEGE TO LEARN MORE.>>IT ALL STARTED WITH A
REFERENDUM AT THE END OF JUNE IN 2016. AND AS A RESULT OF THAT
REFERENDUM, THE PEOPLE OF BRITAIN VOTED TO LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION. BUT THE REFERENDUM WAS RATHER
VAGUELY WORDED, SO THE POLITICIANS KIND OF JUMPED IN
AND STARTED ARGUING OVER THE EXACT MEANING AND THE FIRST
ROUND WAS LED BY THERESA MAY, WHO BECAME THE PRIME MINISTER
AFTER DAVID CAMERON WHO HAD ACTUALLY CALLED FOR THE
REFERENDUM. HE THOUGHT THE REFERENDUM WOULD
BE DEFEATED AND IT WASN’T SO HE RESIGNED. TERESA MAY BECAME THE PRIME
MINISTER. I HAD AN INTERVIEW WITH JIM
MADIGAN ABOUT THAT TIME BECAUSE IER EER EER IS — HAD BEEN IN LD
MET WITH HER IN A MEETING OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY AND JEREMY
HUNT, AT THAT TIME THE HEALTH SECRETARY. BUT HE WAS ANOTHER CONTENDER FOR
THAT PRIME MINISTER POSITION. THE TWO OF THEM WERE VERY
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BEING ABLE TO HAVE WHAT I GUESS YOU WOULD CALL
A SOFT EXIT, WHERE BRITAIN WOULD MAINTAIN A TRADING RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, BUT THEY WOULD BOW OUT OF A LOT OF
THESE WHAT THEY CONSIDERED HEAVILY BUREAUCRATIC, RIGID
LAWS. AND THEY WERE REALLY LOOKING FOR
ENGLAND TO BECOME KIND OF A CENTER FOR INNOVATION AND
FINANCE AND THEY WERE VERY EXCITED. WHEN I WAS TALKING TO THEM THEY
SAID WE ARE SO IMPRESSED WHEN WE GO TO THE UNITED STATES AND SEE
INNOVATION CENTERS IN SILICON VALLEY, AUSTIN, TEXAS, AND
BOSTON, WE WANT TO GO THAT ROUTE. EUROPE IS TOO BUREAUCRATIC FOR
US.>>REGULATED. YEAH.>>BUT IT TURNED OUT UNLIKE THE
AGREEMENT WE HAVE IN THE UNITED STATES WITH CANADA AND MEXICO
WHERE WE HAVE FREE TRADE, FREE MOVEMENT OF CAPITAL, BUT WE
DON’T HAVE FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE. AND THAT’S A KEY PART OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION’S REASON FOR BEING IS TO HAVE CIRCULATION OF
PEOPLE. AND THAT’S REALLY, TURNS OUT,
THE MOTIVE BEHIND BREXIT. PEOPLE IN ENGLAND WERE JUST
CONCERNED PARTICULARLY WITH EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
JOINING THE UNION, THAT THEY WERE GETTING A LOT OF IMMIGRANTS
FROM ROMANIA, POLAND AND PLACES LIKE THAT. AND THEY FOUND THAT SORT OF
SOCIALLY DESTABILIZING, I GUESS MAYBE THE WAY THE PEOPLE HERE
FIND THE MEXICANS AND SOUTH AMERICANS MOVING IN TO BE
DESTABILIZING.>>CERTAINLY THERE IS PUSHBACK
FOR THE PEOPLE ON THE OTHER SIDE.>>IT IS NOT ONLY UNWELCOMING,
BUT DANGEROUS FOR THE ECONOMY. THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO PICK
THE STRAWBERRIES OR WORK IN THE HOTELS. IF YOU GO TO ENGLAND, THE PEOPLE
WORKING IN THE RESTAURANTS, THE HOTELS, THE SERVICES ARE ALMOST
ALL FROM OTHER PARTS OF EUROPE. IT HAS BECOME JUST KIND OF A
MESS. I THINK THE BASIC PROBLEM IN A
NUTSHELL IS THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY AND PEOPLE OUTWARD
LOOKING WOULD LIKE TO STAY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION ON SOME KIND
OF A BASIS, MAYBE ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT NORWAY HAS WHERE
THEY ARE IN THE UNION, BUT THEY DON’T HAVE TO ABIDE BY ALL THE
RULES AND DON’T PARTICIPATE IN ALL THE POLITICAL DELIBERATIONS. BUT THEY HAVEN’T BEEN ABLE TO
CUT THAT SORT OF A DEAL. AND WHAT’S COMPLICATED IS THE
PROBLEM OF NORTHERN IRELAND BECAUSE ENTERING THE EUROPEAN
UNION PRETTY MUCH SOLVED THAT PROBLEM OF THE BORDER BETWEEN
NORTHERN IRELAND AND THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND. NOW THEY’RE GOING TO HAVE TO
RE-ESTABLISH THE BORDER BECAUSE THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND IS IN
THE EUROPEAN UNION, NORTHERN IRELAND WILL REMAIN IN THE
UNITED KINGDOM. THEY WILL HAVE TO RE-ESTABLISH
THE BORDER. THIS IS WHAT THEY CALL THE
BACKSTOP. EUROPEAN UNION ISN’T WILLING TO
COMPROMISE ON THAT, BUT IT CREATES A REAL PROBLEM FOR THE
UNITED KINGDOM BECAUSE IT RESURFACES THAT WHOLE ISSUE,
THAT HIDEOUS ISSUE OF THE TROUBLES IN NORTHERN IRELAND,
WHICH WENT ON FOR 30 OR 40 YEARS AND WAS FINALLY RESOLVED IN THE
LATE 90s WITH THIS EUROPEAN UNION SOLUTION.>>NOW PRIME MINISTER BORIS
JOHNSON HAS SUSPENDED PARLIAMENT TO PUSH IT THROUGH OCTOBER 31
WHICH IS THE TIME WHEN BRITAIN CAN LEAVE. OBVIOUSLY, THERE HAS BEEN
CONCERN ABOUT THAT AND PEOPLE ON THE OTHER SIDE, OBVIOUSLY,
UPSET.>>WELL, WHAT BORIS — HIS
PROGRAM IS, HE SAYS HE IS NOT AFRAID OF WHAT HE CALLS A HARD
BREXIT, WHERE YOU JUST CRASH OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. HE SAID WE DECIDED TO DO IT,
LET’S GET ON WITH IT. IT’S BEEN THREE YEARS NOW.
AND A LOT OF PEOPLE AGREE WITH HIM. PROBABLY A MAJORITY OF THE
PARLIAMENT. THE FORMER GOVERNOR OF HONG
KONG, PEOPLE HIGHLY REGARDED AND SERIOUS ARE SAYING WE HAVE TO
RETHINK THIS THING NOT PRECIPITATE IT.>>IF YOU RETHINK IT, VOTERS SAY
IT WAS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE. IT WAS A SLIM MARGIN.>>52.>>52%. TERESA MAY STEPPED DOWN IN JUNE
AFTER AN AGREEMENT SHE MADE WITH EUROPE COULD NOT GO THROUGH
PARLIAMENT.>>THEY ARE AT A DEADLOCK.>>YOU ARE ROLLING THE DICE
CERTAINLY.>>AND BORIS JUST WANTS TO PUSH
IT THROUGH. HE HAS ANOTHER ACE UP HIS
SLEEVE, WHICH IS TO CALL AN ELECTION, WHICH HE THINKS HE
WOULD WIN. THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO
QUESTION THAT, BUT IF HE WERE TO WIN, THAT WOULD PROBABLY, IN A
WAY, BE THE BEST SOLUTION. THEN IT WOULD BE A CLEAN BREAK. YOU HAVE AN ELECTION, THE PEOPLE
HAVE SPOKEN, THIS IS WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO. YOU GO AHEAD WITH IT. NOW IT IS JUST VERY CONFUSED AND
I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE FEEL THEY ARE SLIDING INTO SOMETHING
AND THEY DON’T REALLY KNOW WHAT IS AT THE OTHER END.>>IF THERE IS A HARD EXIT
OCTOBER 31, WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO THE ECONOMY THERE AND THE
OVERALL ECONOMY IN EUROPE?>>I THINK IT’S A MAJOR
DISASTER, QUITE FRANKLY, BECAUSE EVEN BASIC THINGS LIKE IF I MAKE
A PRODUCT IN THE UK AND I SHIP IT TO EUROPE, WHICH IS THE
LARGEST MARKET, ALL OF A SUDDEN I’VE GOT TO REWRITE ALL MY
CONTRACTS AND PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS AND HEALTH AND
SAFETY REGULATIONS. I THINK THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF
LAWYERS IN THE COUNTRY NOW BECAUSE THEY JUST NEED SO MANY
PEOPLE TO GO THROUGH THE PAPERWORK AND REWRITE ALL THESE
CONTRACTS. AND THEN THE OTHER THING, WHICH
I THINK IS REALLY DISTURBING, IS THE STRENGTH OF THE UK ECONOMY
TO A LARGE DEGREE OTHER THAN FINANCE, WHICH IS A SECTOR WHICH
WILL PROBABLY TEND TO MOVE MORE TOWARD FRANKFURT AND PARIS AND
CONTINENTAL EUROPE, BUT THE SUPPLY CHAINS OF THESE BIG
COMPANIES, TOYOTA, BMW, THEY MAKE A LOT OF CARS, FOR EXAMPLE,
IN THE UK, BUT IT’S PART OF A EUROPEAN SUPPLY CHAIN. SO IF YOU’RE BMW AND MAKING CARS
IN ENGLAND, YOU ARE BRINGING IN PARTS AND SHIPPING OUT CARS AND
THERE ARE NO DUTIES, NO TARIFFS, NO REGULATIONS, BUT IF YOU
IMTHOSE BORDERS AND THOSE CONTROLS THE WHOLE SUPPLY CHAIN
SORT OF FALLS APART.

Maurice Vega

2 Responses

  1. Sorry Sir. Nothing vague about the referendum question. REMAIN or LEAVE – remain votes 16,141,241 and leave votes 17,410,742. NOTHING vague about that either!

  2. I would add that the MOTIVATION was not eastern European Countries joining but the sole aim of the EU is a United States of Europe and a European Army and also the ultimate loss of UK Sovereignty! How can someone as intelligent as yourself get it so very wrong? I suspect you have talked to too many politicians and no one from the British Community! (BTW there is no Crashing involved, just scare mongering by such as yourself).

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