Brexit fallout: govt papers show no deal will be catastrophic for the UK



oh there oh then you are an incorrigible delinquent at times babe yourself an with just seven months to go before the UK leaves the European Union the government has moved to allay fears over the consequences of no deal being reached with Brussels on future trading arrangements is released a raft of papers offering advice to businesses and individuals and sets out the government's preparations for any impact the brexit secretary Dominic Robb says while no agreement with Brussels is unlikely ministers have a responsibility to plan for all outcomes well the 24 documents cover a wide range of potential concerns consumers would face slower and more costly credit card payments buying EU products and British citizens living abroad could lose access to their bank accounts business is exporting to Europe who may have to renegotiate contracts to reflect customs and tariff changes and hire additional expert staff a new medicines coming into the UK will have to be checked as drug companies are told to boost stockpiles here but there was little in the papers on the deeply contentious issue of trade across the border with Northern Ireland British firms are told to seek the advice of the Irish government well we'll be analyzing what the documents suggest and no deal could mean for you with our specialist editors but first here's our deputy political editor John Pina for millions of Brits a brixey deal would mean change but no deal could mean more and quickly card spending in Europe more costly no guarantee Brits could use EU bank accounts the same way or draw pensions medicines they'd be stockpiled but no promise they wouldn't run out and as for business traders would face new customs duties and safety checks and bureaucracy at a stroke the brexit Secretary's message no need to panic the UK had to be ready for anything we're raising this issue with the EU to impress upon them our joint responsibility to work together to minimize any harm to UK and European citizens and businesses those lives those livelihoods on both sides should be put ahead of any narrow political interests a brexit ear to his fingertips he was keen no one's swallowed any scare stories like – the British sandwich country – one of the wilder claims you will still be able to enjoy a BLT after brexit and there are no plans to deploy the army to maintain food supplies maybe so but there'd be sudden change and costs for many no more EU cap on charges for card spending access to bank accounts and pensions could change and businesses could face increased costs and slower processing times for EU transactions worried about medicines a British agency would take over regulation and assessment in the UK some medicines were being stockpiled but shortages couldn't be wholly ruled out and for British exporters no deal would mean big changes new software to buy consultants to hire warehouses and if you trade with Ireland where the UK's promised no hard border Northern Irish businesses are told to ask Ireland for guidance do you accept that a new deal brexit would leave the country worse off and not better off the UK we better off outside of the EU in any scenario of the long term but I recognised the risks of the short-term and these technical notes is about taking a balanced sober assessment of that and working out the practical ways to make it work well some ministers are frankly alarmed at the idea of leaving with no deal the Chancellor Philip Hammond has written to a senior colleague today warning that economic growth could take a hit of nearly 8 percent over 15 years brexit ears might call that scare mongering the Chancellor and his friends would say it's simply facing harsh reality few MPs liked the idea of a No Deal brexit so our opposition party's backing the government of course not eight weeks before the October summit which is supposed to be the end of the negotiations the government is just publishing these vague papers and they're not even publishing all of them presumably the other 50 or so papers are still being written that really isn't going to reassure anybody the likelihood of a people's vote is now growing when we have a No Deal which is obviously unacceptable and highly disruptive and we have a government deal which is poor and disruptive what else do we do in Brussels the EU is playing hardball and saying any kind of brexit will come at a cost it's going to lead to disruption regardless so with a deal or without a deal and that's why everybody and in particularly economic operators needs to be prepared the agreed time to sketch out Britain's future relationship with the EU has almost run out talk of crisis has become a cliche expect to hear it again John Pina BBC News Westminster well as we've been hearing pharmaceutical companies have been told they must stock up on medicines to cope with a No Deal brexit Dominic Robb says there needs to be an additional six weeks supply stored in the UK a No Deal would also mean all new medical products coming into the country would have to be approved with his assessment of the government's advice here's our health editor Cupid there have been fears that supplies of medicines could be held up if there's no deal and the wreck us tombs delays at channel ports the worry was that essential medication for patients which has to be imported might not be available hospitals and pharmacies weren't sure whether they should stockpile but ministers are telling them there won't be a problem the government has today written to hospital managers and others in the health and care system saying they don't need to worry about building up extra supplies that will be taken care of at the same time doctors have been urged not to sign longer-dated prescriptions for patients who might feel they need extra medicines ministers have told the pharmaceutical industry to build up six weeks worth of supplies of medicines which are imported from elsewhere in Europe well the letter to the NHS really is a first step and I think that hospitals and other organisations throughout the NHS will be expecting more detailed guidance I mean these are organizations that are used to emergencies but this is a pretty unprecedented situation if there's no deal drug companies will have to get new products approved twice once by British regulators and once by their European counterparts adding an unwelcome extra of bureaucracy hewp in BBC news well what about the impact on Business and Finance of a No Deal brexit firms have been told future trading with the EU might mean renegotiating contracts with suppliers and customers because of customs and tariff changes they've also been advised to hire expert help to cope here's our economics editor Kamal Ahmed with his analysis of what a No Deal might mean for business the banks and insurance companies of the City of London a sector that neatly sums up the challenges of a No Deal brexit it's a sector that is closely intertwined with the rest of the European Union it's important economically and if there were no deal it would be facing higher trade barriers and higher trade barriers mean one thing higher costs and ultimately they tend to be passed on to us the consumer and just as it did for the financial services sector the government today outlined the challenges for the food sector new tariffs new regulations described as frightening a concern shared by many businesses across the economy only 1/3 of IOT members have actually done any really active contingency planning the rest have been waiting for more information to come out from the government so I think this is some welcome detail long overdue but what we'd like to see more of in the future is what the government plans to do to really mitigate the impact of No Deal some firms have welcomed the fact that at least there is now some detail some detail about what the government believes are the possible challenges of red tape of increased costs of disruption of an Odile brexit tomorrow mid so with the release of the government's advisories what does an Odile brexit mean for ordinary people across the UK is our correspondent Judith Moritz time keeps on ticking towards brexit day 7 months till the 29th of March but what would an Odile brexit look like for you and me in the event of that happening it could prove more expensive for Brits to shop within the EU whether you're going there on day or shopping here online if you use your cards to make a payment the chances are the bill could go up because at the moment there's a ban which stops you being stung with a surcharge for using your cards but that will stop and if you're receiving a parcel in from the EU there could be further costs because Goods will no longer be eligible for VA t relief what if you've decided to escape this weather and move abroad there are warnings for expats who live in the EU but do their banking or have pensions and financial products in the UK under No Deal scenario moving their money getting access to funds will be even harder Adam Cole Beck lives between London and Provence in France my concerns would be savings accessing savings from from the UK whilst in France I'd be using my credit card in France and whether I'm going to be able to do that without being charged and also the transferring of my wages from my English bank accounts my French bank account whether that's still going to be possible and if it is going to be possible whether it's going to be more expensive how much more expensive in money and what about the food on our plates well Dominic Raab says we'll still be able to enjoy a BLT after brexit but if the Bacon's from Denmark the tomatoes are Dutch and the lettuce is from Spain but chances are the cost will go up because of the increase in red tape for food importers the National Farmers Union's warned of a disastrous cliff edge scenario for the UK food supply chain but the brexit secretary says there'll be no sandwich famine and no need to use the military to keep the shelves stocked the big question is how likely is a No Deal brexit government says not very but adds that it's putting its plans in place just in case Judith Moritz BBC news in a moment we'll talk to our deputy political editor John Pienaar at Westminster but first Damien gramática says in Brussels for us this evening Damien what's been the reaction to where these documents from the folk where you are live here they says they've been producing their own documents like this for nearly a year now because they say that absolutely clearly brexit will have impacts as an automatic operation of the UK leaving that you use Customs Union single market it's legal structures and they have been warning for a long time that companies and individuals need to face up to that now the UK approach is built on a couple of things it seems to be on the one hand saying it would hope for reciprocation from the EU on the other hand on things like banks trying to sell services into the EU well companies would just have to follow EU rules now the EU sides say they are negotiating only for a withdrawal agreement to settle all of those issues they will not have they say separate negotiations for no deal and they their notices make clear that they will in the case of no deal treat the UK as a third country very little scope for any special deals one other thing I think they will have notice here today Dominic Raab saying these were being produced because the EU might not match the UK's ambition and pragmatism and there might be no deal because of that that will sound here like a sort of blame game and they have already said this week the negotiators will not be moved by any sort of attempt to blame them Damien thank you for that Damien grammatic is there in Brussels let's talk to her John Pienaar at Westminster John the government is confident it can reach a deal within the time frame but it looks as if this is could go right down to the wire absolutely I mean you couldn't call this a particularly comfortable moment for Dominic Ravi campaigned for leave he's a true believer yet there he was today setting out plans to deal with the failure to get the kind of deal that brexit ears said at the start would be easy to accomplish he's also been saying today that a deal with the EU was within sight well maybe so but Calais is within sight of Dover and the the political gap between the two sides may turn out to be unbridgeable now to Dominic Rob and those who agree with them it seems common sense that they will be a deal in the end in the end the former remainders and those who have deep doubts about this they see that cost of disruption that could go with with brexit as national harm the other side see it as bumps in the road on the way to a better future Dominic blob could be a more comfortable colleague for some reason a than his predecessor David Davis you could say his confidence in getting a deal or maybe cooperation if there's no deal that is about his face you could also say it's about wishful thinking okay John thank you for that John Pienaar there at Westminster and again Damien Thank You Damien grammatic is there in Brussels now the government's contingency plans for a No Deal brexit an answer a torrent of details from stock piles of medical supplies to warnings of Britons living elsewhere in Europe could lose access to UK banking and pension services brexit secretary Dominic Raab described it as practical and proportionate advice but labour said it showed a No Deal scenario would be catastrophic in a moment we'll be discussing what impact this could have on our daily lives but first over to our political correspondent Michael crick in Westminster Michael well Matt if you went along to Dominic rods presentation today you might be left thinking that No Deal really wouldn't be that much of a problem the government can cope with it but not long after the presentation came to big government announcements which suggest that no deal could be a very big problem indeed first the Chancellor chose today of all days to announce that no deal would have large fiscal consequences and he revealed there is Treasury research going on which is likely to suggest that the consequences of no deal could be even worse than he suggested in the last analysis in January 2nd the health secretary told the pharmaceutical industry it should stop a pile another six weeks of drugs to cope with possible disruption from the Europe good morning everyone thank you all for coming don't worry was the message the brexit secretary tried to give us we don't expect no deal dominic rob said but if it happens we're prepared and there's no need to panic he implied let me be clear about this it is not what we want and it's not what we expect but we must be ready we have a duty as a responsible government to plan for every eventuality mr. Rob a brexit tier insisted he doesn't want no deal but he did list some benefits the immediate recovery a full legend regulatory control including over immigration policy the unfettered ability to lower tariffs to bring into effect nude free trade deals that we negotiate straight away and mindful of our strict legal obligations a swifter end to our financial contributions to the EU but mr. Rob's big day was rather spoiled by the Chancellor announcing he expects new Treasury Research to show no deal would do even more harm to the economy than he previously thought Philip Hammond wrote to the chair at the Commons Treasury committee telling her the Treasury is refining its January analysis which suggested government borrowing would be 80 billion pounds higher in 15 years time now the effects are likely to be worse Mr Hammond said we expect the analysis to show that four scenarios in which we would have higher barriers to trade with the EU there will be a more damaging effect on the economy and public finances Dominic Roth's papers on a No Deal today confirm from extra red tape and higher cost for businesses trading with the EU and the public should expect higher charges on card payments within the European Union Network the pharmaceutical industry has long warned medicine supplies would be at severe risk under No Deal but mr. Rob's papers today left them reassured this is a good day for patients patients can feel confident that the government and the industry are working well together to put plans in place to make sure that we can continue to supply their medicines to them strangely mr. Rabb's documents fail to say that ministers now want the pharma industry to stockpile a lot more medicines that news only came later when the health secretary Matt Hancock wrote to pharmaceutical firms warning no deal might disrupt EU import and they should acquire another six weeks supplies largely at their expense as for stockpiling food that's just a scare story Dominic Rob said but the industry thinks No Deal would still mean disruption real concern that we have and our members have is how can all that has to be done be done in the time available things like registering as approved economic operators understanding the new customs system all of that stuff is really difficult and we've only got six months to do it and we haven't even been told yet how these systems work so time is against us we need information and we're running out of the time in order to put it into effect I thought the proposals were bland thin on detail thin on substance and I don't think they're going to reassure anybody this appears to me to be a government in denial about the serious consequences of No Deal whether it's today was just the government's first batch of No Deal advisory papers thank you thank you very much they'll release another 60 next month what's this about some prominent new kippers joining the Tory Party yes well Aaron banks UKIP's one of bit.you cubes biggest funders and his sidekick Andy Wigmore of both announced today that they've joined the Conservative Party now this will stoke the fears of those in the party who are saying that the party is susceptible to infiltration from thousands of you kit members perhaps people with the intention of getting somebody like Boris Johnson elected as the next Conservative leader now there are reports tonight that the concerns have actually blocked their applications but banks and Wigmore say that they've had a very nice letter saying that their membership has been activated so another problem for Theresa May Michael thanks very much Fatima thanks Matt while our business correspondent Helia Ibrahimi has been going through the government's 25 documents to find out what impact their plans could have for British industry especially sectors like financial services she takes a look at the doomsday scenario the city of London is a ghost town the realities of bricks that are starting to sink in without a deal many UK financial services will no longer be legal in Europe people licences and regulatory capital will have to leave 26 trillion dollars of financial contracts could be marked invalid and for consumers tens of millions of insurance contracts and pension plans could fail to pay out while today the government said it would pretty much unilaterally grant European firms business as usual extensions in the case of an idea bricks it no such assurance has been offered by the EU that leaves all EU residents where the European or British with huge problems when it comes to cashing in insurance policies or their savings without agreement from EU regulators pensioners are one group at risk whether you're UK or an EU citizen if you're receiving a payment from the UK into the EU through a pension contract there's uncertainty over the legality of that and we need that uncertainty removed so insurers don't have to face choosing between breaking their promise and breaking the law this is the paradox of choice facing consumers and companies as the prospect of a No Deal brexit becomes ever more real well Helle is with me now who does it all affect well it's the whole financial plumbing that underpins the day-to-day lives of companies of households that has a giant novio spanner in it now today the UK government tried to alleviate some of that granting European companies extensions so for example Fatima if you had a home insurance policy with Allianz and he had a fire under the rules created by the government today you could cash in that policy no problems the issues arise if you're an European resident and you're trying to access a UK product whether that's an annuity or an insurance product by next March that could be illegal and to give you some context there could be as many as 38 million insurance products alone like that is it just insurance no it's the whole gamut of financial services from the very large to the very small just to pick out consumer issue highlighted by today's report it's credit cards now in a no deal scenario we won't be protected by something called the surcharging ban so transactions that UK credit cards have and the continent could become more expensive whether by pennies or by pounds it illustrates the kind of problems that we might see before anyone accuses me of scaremongering it's worth saying that within the city and even within Treasury there's a belief that in the eleventh hour an arrangement will be found whether that's a no deal deal that will help alleviate some of these issues for the consumers but in the end it needs political will in Europe to make that happen hey Leo thanks very much Matt thanks vitamin well joining me now are Ally Renison who's head of Europe and trade policy at the Institute of Directors Neil Dixon chief executive of the NHS federal Confederation and co-chair of the brexit Health Alliance and Martin how QC from lawyers to Britain welcome to all of you for coming on the program we've got a lot to rattle through so let's start rattling I'm Neil Dixon over to you first and can you reassure a potential patient that if there is a no deal brexit a lot that are you reassured that that patient will get the same treatment in a year's time as you would do today well I think we can be a little more assured than we were yesterday because it is clear that the government is starting to take the seriously its recognized that it's all very well to hope for the best but you've got to start planning for the worst and that in a sense is what the first step has involved today and the decision for example to ask from suitable companies to plan were six months of stockpiling to ask also that where drugs are perishable or they've got short shelf lives that they should arrange air freight because the first problem that is going to face us with a no deal breaks it is around the borders and passing through those borders in the days and weeks after that decision so I think it is right the government is is taking some steps in answer to your question am I totally reassured I think the answer is not at this stage though I don't think there is any reason for patients to panic or get anxious at this moment I think in time this will be sorted but the government is starting quite late in the day and I think doing some of this stuff in the time that we've got will be a challenge but briefly things like insulin for instance there were quite a few stories about that there won't be enough insulin for people who suffer from diabetes as you reassured on that front for instance well I think that what the government has done is identify every single medicine where we are dependent to some degree or other on imports from Europe and has looked into the vulnerabilities in each area is talking to the manufacturers about making sure that there are the right levels of stockpiling I mean that is exactly what should have happened and is now happening so to that extent I think we can be reassured but of course some of the details still needs to be followed up and I think our members in hospitals for example all around the country that they want some more operational detail I think to support them because although they're very used to dealing with emergencies this is a really challenging and difficult and unprecedented set of circumstances – now you reassured you represent companies the Institute of Directors has enough been said to you to reassure you well it is a belated first step it would have been helpful to have this much earlier on in the game because I think what it in some ways sends a message even if indirectly to a lot of businesses is that it's being put out this late because no deal looks imminent and I think if it had been done earlier and that would have been avoided having said that it's certainly a welcome if belated for a step and the big question will be what's coming in the next set of tranches because there's quite a bit missing whether it was on citizens rights enforcement of other related contracts so all eyes will be on the next tranche very much so but but quite a bit missing could also be really quite existential for quite a few businesses couldn't it yeah and I think that you know there were three things we were looking for from today and one was information about how rules would changed I think the government did a very good job of that explaining how trade currently flows with you and how it would change once third-country rules are applied secondly what steps business should should be taking now and thirdly what unilateral action it would take to mitigate the impact No Deal and I think what we are still looking for there was a lot of information on the pharmaceutical front but when it comes to particularly the areas that the government can control on imports we would have liked to have seen around v80 and customs within the constraints international trade rules what more mitigating action the government would be taking under a No Deal scenario – okay reduce the impact Marta now let's turn to you and you've written a long article where you said actually we should embrace no deal because we'd be better off in a no deal breck said then you know under the checkers proposal tell us about oranges okay well at the moment oranges face a sixteen percent tariff when they're imported from outside the European Union and this is a symptom of the structure of tariffs that was really existed sin ever since we first joined the common market in 1972 it basically there are very high tariffs on areas that protect continental farming interests German manufacturers the Italian clothing industry all these are areas of high tariffs now the effect of having a high tariff on in this case the example is oranges is of course that we pay above the world price that is British consumers pay above the world price for oranges and if we import competing oranges from Florida or wherever they have to pay the tariff right so one of the things that we can do when we leave is immediately get rid of tariffs on goods where we have no domestic growers or producers ok oranges as an example so so that so we we might be able to buy cheap oranges but what about you know exporting to the European Union and what about credit card transactions you know dat on parcels you know pensions not being guaranteed in the way that they are right now this is pretty big stuff bigger than oranges argument well III oranges of course is just one tiny example actually the effect is pretty vast because if we pursue a sensible tariff policy we would be able to cut the costs of our imports on goods across the board by a very considerable level and you're looking at savings in the many billions of pounds a year for British consumers now you asked about exports into the of course that's the opposite direction the European Union would naturally in in fact it's required by WTO rules to impose the same tariffs on imports from the UK as it does from the rest of the world right but Sunday's have been done on how much that would okay and it's around five billion a year right which is which are exporters paid under half our current net budget Crider bution so it's not a big deal just want on a brief run to you the Chancellor's prediction we're pretty dire today even worse than his previous predictions eighty billion extra pounds in borrowing a stagnant economy for fifteen years do you dismiss those proclamations there's well I'm not I'm not an economist so I mean I don't necessarily want to get into the economic debate but what I would say is the Treasury has consistently produced a series of studies which have purported to demonstrate it's all disaster if we leave this is more the same pattern okay and interestingly one of the problems was they fed in an assumption in their original studies which there was that we would retire to slike impose huge import tariffs which we don't need to do all right and the cook the sorry the clock really is against us so much more to discuss no time to do it Ali Renison Neil Dixon Martin now thank you very much indeed the vision presented today by the government of the UK after a No Deal bricks it could fairly be described as contingency planning but the detail on potential extra costs and inconvenience to the public and to business made the documents rather more than that they were a clear warning of the risks of not reaching a deal putting pressure perhaps on the EU and certainly making clear why the government itself still considers No Deal a last resort unlikely the brexit secretary Dominic Raab called it today people who used credit cards in Europe or who are retired and receive British pensions there could be hit hard mr. rob tried to play down the impact but later the Chancellor Philip Hammond warned of big consequences for a No Deal at last a plan for what happens if we crash out of the EU next year without a deal and what it really would mean for different sectors of the economy rather late in the day you might think but the BRICS it's secretary said it had to be done it is not what we want and it's not what we expect but we must be ready we have a duty as a responsible government to plan for every eventuality and he dismissed some speculation about what it entailed let me assure you that contrary to one of the wilder claims you will still be able to enjoy a BLT after brexit and there are no plans to deploy the army to maintain food supplies but other aspects will worry some if there's no deal all consumers could find their credit card fees go up and transactions take longer to process Britons living in the EU may also lose access to banking services pensions and insurance policies businesses faced a big increase in red tape the government is advising them to hire more staff to deal with customs checks on all imports and exports there's been none of this kind of paperwork for the past 40 years for the NHS provisions are being made to stockpile medicines for at least six weeks and in the long run new medicines may have to be approved separately by both the EU and the UK looking at these papers they're effectively a red tape bonanza that imposed all sorts of restrictions on businesses what would you say to business about the prospect of a No Deal it's of course in relation to those in the current trading links with the EU there'll be some extra regulatory changes that they'll need to be advised off the sensible thing to do is to give practical advice and work with them to make that a success there was nothing today on how ports might cope with checking new customs declarations but what detail there was was bad enough says labour a No Deal breaks it would be catastrophic for our country for our economy and many other sectors and I think being casual about the Seraph consequence of No Deal is the wrong way forward small businesses are certainly alarmed the risk of an Odile brexit has been really laid bare today it will be a real shock to many small business owners those who export or import that there could be facing huge new levels of bureaucracy and they're simply not prepared they don't have in-house customs experts like bigger organizations a cliff edge for them would be a real disaster the EU was keen to stress that brexit wouldn't be pain free whatever happened in the negotiations we are working constructively to reach a deal and whilst we are continuously working to this effect it is also clear that the withdrawal of the UK is going to lead to disruption regardless so with a deal or without it even thank you very much but after today walking away without any deal looks a pretty uncomfortable option the possible credit-card charges and difficulties accessing pensions from abroad that Libby just mentioned there aren't the only problems of a No Deal brexit as outlined today if you're ordering parcels online worth less than 135 pounds they would no longer be eligible for VA t relief that might be passed on to customers organic farmers could face delays of up to nine months before they get approved to export to the EU once again new picture warnings will be needed for cigarette packets the EU owns the copyright to the current ones and in an example of just how far you regulations touched so many aspects of life last year we imported three thousand sperm samples from Denmark new agreements will have to be put in place meaning possible delays for couples trying to conceive here in the UK well I'm delighted to say that Libby joins me live in the studio your package that bit of an explainer huge list of challenges from Dominic Rab but also from the Chancellor yes well the brexit secretary was trying to sound breezy and upbeat but when he looked at those hundred and forty pages of warnings if it essentially of what businesses would have to do to prepare for brexit it was pretty sobering added to that this afternoon the Chancellor issued a letter that he had written to the Treasury select committee spelling out the fiscal consequences as he put it of a No Deal brexit and effectively he was saying that public borrowing could go through the roof now he won't have made many friends within his own party by that intervention but interestingly today from Dominic Raab we never heard that phrase no deal is better than a bad deal so considering everything and your day began at that press conference and you interviewed Dominic Raab as well in your assessment is a no deal more likely tonight or less likely than it was this morning less likely I think for a number of reasons one is that up till now our threats of walking away have largely been empty threats because we haven't had a plan unlike the EU they've been preparing documents on this for the best part of a year this is the first time we've actually produced a plan for what would happen if we just walk away secondly when you look at the details of that plan it's not something that ministers particularly conservative ministers would really want to inflict on British businesses and I think thirdly an interesting fact dominic rob has been in post for six weeks I understand that he has now had more meetings with his EU counterpart Michel Barnier in those six weeks than his predecessor David Davis had in two years I think that does suggest that the pace of negotiations is quickening alright Debbie thank you the long national journey towards brexit reached a milestone today government papers were published covering two dozen areas of national life and what will happen in them if this country can't agree a divorce deal with the European Union that would lead to a disorderly or no deal brexit next March something both the British government and the EU of course say they will strive to avoid there have been all sorts of predictions of what it might mean from sandwiches disappearing in the shops to planes grounded today we got the government's view about what could happen and how to plan for it but in many ways it was an expression of hope that things could just carry on much the same here's David Grossman the clock is ticking what would No Deal mean for you your business your job your family today the first official advice on how we should prepare in a speech in London today the brexit secretary Dominic Raab insisted No Deal was unlikely undesirable but at the same time no disaster it is not what we want and it's not what we expect but we must be ready we have a duty as a responsible government to plan for every eventuality and to do this we need to have a sensible responsible and realistic conversation about what a No Deal situation really means in practice in 24 areas the government published its advice in many cases it said the UK will continue to recognize EU rules irrespective of what the EU does for example in financial services the government will allow financial institutions from the EU to continue to operate in the UK for three years post a No Deal brexit and of course there's no commitment from the EU to reciprocate for UK firms in medicines the UK says it will continue to recognize the EU drug testing again irrespective of what the EU does of course given that we start from a position of common rules we would also hope and I think expect in good faith between close partners that the EU would recognize medicines from this country with our regulatory approval but in the No Deal scenario we can't guarantee it although mr. rabe reserved the right to diverge from EU rules in time there is concern we may be reducing the pressure on the EU to agree to a deal after all by saying we will continue to accept many EU regulations in the event but No Deal will be giving them some of what they want nothing guaranteed in return it's all up to EU politics it depends if they want to if they want to take the sensible route or they want to try and score points then if everything if a politician in in another European country might feel that somehow there were a net advantage to their it to the to their industry in in not in the UK being excluded then it's unhelpful I mean all of these all of these issues are capable of having sensible solutions it just needs people to be prepared to come up with agreed central policies on how we go forward but even though the government has told businesses in some areas what they need to do time is limited there is much to do for example the technical paper in title trading with the EU if there's no brexit deal gives UK companies quite a to-do list if they want to continue to import goods from the EU register for a UK economic operator registration and identification number ensure that your contracts and international terms and conditions of service now reflect that you are an importer consider how you will submit your import declarations perhaps you will need to engage a customs broker freight forwarder or logistics provider all at a cost to you you could of course do these jobs yourself but first you will have to acquire the necessary software and get the right authorizations from HMRC and finally of course you will have to consult HMRC tariff information and guidance alongside a list of commodity codes to correctly classify your goods with the appropriate tariff rate the end of March is so near the amount of you know planning and how much change you can you know actually implement in this time is really quite quite minimal so I do feel that we in reality we're optimistic and say we'll work it out it will all work out won't it but by the end of March that's the harder harder challenge I think tonight in a clearly intentionally disruptive intervention the Chancellor Philip Hammond directly contradicted the brexit Secretary's assertion that the UK would go from strength to strength even in the event of no deal in a letter to the Treasury select committee timed for maximum impact Mr Hammond warned that no deal could cost the UK between five and ten percent of GDP to say the least it's been a day of mixed messages from the government David Grossman there well it was a wealth of detail in today's government papers and there are many more to follow covering different sectors of the economy in a moment we'll dig a little deeper with people from three sectors covered by today's papers first though there's a little more detail coming up about the government's advice on the financial sector medicines and agriculture the papers involve much going with the flow allowing trade here on current terms in the hope that the EU might reciprocate on financial services it predicts no change for many European retail banking operations in this country as to the bigger picture it has soothing words about the joint Bank of England and European Central Bank Technical Working Group but it warns that the loss of passport in could hit UK firms selling financial products across the channel that could affect millions of insurance policies as well as pension payments and it says the tactic of city firms opening subsidiary offices in European countries won't work with many financial products on medicines there's an assurance that we would continue to accept batch testing of human medicines done in certain countries radioactive isotopes might have to be flown in to bypass queues at Dover separate guidance from the Ministry of Health does hospitals GPS and pharmacies stockpiling is not necessary by them anyway the pharma companies have been directed to ensure supplies when it comes to farming exporters of organic produce will face particular hurdles from having to change packaging to getting certification there will be differences UK control bodies are not permitted to make these applications until the UK becomes a third countries as the note in other words people can't even start that process until next March well joining us now to discuss those issues are John de Beer from the Association of British Insurers Mike Thompson CEO of the Association of British pharmaceutic the pharmaceutical industry a bigger problem and Helen Browning joining us down the line an organic farmer and CEO of the Soil Association charity Mike Thompson if I can start with you 218 days to go durable do you think from your point of view farm a point of view well I think as as business digest these draft of technical notices I think it becomes clear that this is the biggest logistical challenge that we faced in peacetime so there's an enormous amount for us to do in our industry however there's an overriding objective which is to ensure we can get our medicines to patients and to that today the government has done some things which really helped us to do that batch testing might sound very technical actually what it means is we don't have to duplicate clinical testing laboratories which would have been very challenging for us to set up so that makes a big difference for us we're used to having buffer stocks we can never afford to run out of medicines so we carry buffer stocks anyway what the government's done today has given us advice about how long we might need to increment in crease those stocks recognizing there be challenges at the border so quickly for the buffer stocks yeah are they paid for by the industry or by the taxpayer by the government well I think the government has left that open to further discussion I think the government will need to choose to put their hand into their pocket because there's a huge amount that they're asking to do and the more they help the more they'll reduce the risk to patients so I think they need to step forward which on the beer pretty unambiguous today in the financial services pay per pass porting is over what does that mean for companies say selling insurance to people in France or Italy or Slovenia or wherever I mean do those policies just suddenly disappear the day after this happens if it happened as you say the when the UK leaves the EU insurers will lose the ability to sell policies across border now whilst that is challenging for the future and selling new business into EU it's far more challenging for all those contracts that were sold prior to brexit so the Bank of England estimates that there's around 38 million insurance contracts around 55 million billion pounds worth rather which is a lot of customers who are left in legal limbo from from this decision okay let's let's ask Helen browning as well so in question in a way Helen 218days obviously agriculture you've got to look a fair way down the line is this doable for you I think today's announcements really hammer home just how difficult and no deal would be for agriculture and food it seems vital to me that we stay in the customs union or as aligned as we possibly can do to EU standards it's a huge challenge as you said earlier on it's a challenge for all of Agriculture but there are particular difficulties for organic and it could leave us a situation where we are unable to trade for up to nine months and that would be devastating for our industry can you at this point search either for other markets or I mean to put it crudely go normal Ganic or is it or is that just not the way your business works well I think it does as a farmer myself we're having to face up to some really difficult decisions how do you face this when it's government still saying they're gonna do a deal this feels a bit like a game of chicken to me and we have to decide do we invest in trying to find new markets for organic produce here often its cuts and and bits of the carcass of pig carcass that we don't want to eat in this country or do we reduce production and yet if we do all of those things and really mess our businesses around and then there is a deal we've been more stupid so I think it's very hard for farmers and food businesses to know how to invest now to know what steps to take and for small rural businesses the cost of doing this and making contingencies for all these eventualities is really burdensome so I think if it's in a very difficult position and I really hope we can get make progress very quickly on this now Mike Thompson just turning back to the pharmaceutical industry here for a moment I mean you were given a guarded welcome today is you've said it can work with the recognition of batch testing how far does this require the eu-27 to behave cooperatively or is this an absolutely watertight standalone solution if indeed everybody says they don't want it but if it comes to that our priority is patients and patients are the same on the continent as they are here actually we need the EU to be doing the same sort of thing that the UK is doing to help us ensure we can deliver to EU patients so I think that's the first thing that's important the second place you sense they are doing that so not at the moment so actually the UK's ahead British patients are being more protected by the UK government then actually the other member states are doing for their patients so I think this is a this is a call out to other member states to say you need to get planning to but I've agreed with Helen that at the end of the day what we're looking for is not a No Deal solution as the secretary of state said we're looking for a deal that's right everyone clear that a deal which in our case would be medicines cooperation is the right outcome Joe Derby let's let's talk about the issue of pensioners you know Spain France wherever can you craft a solution for them in time if this does come to No Deal and how far is it possible for example bilaterally with the Spanish French governments to to come to a solution that will allow them to continue receiving pensions the problem is not intractable the pensioners do form part of that 38 million contracts that I I said before but the UK government is already shown willing here and is willing to pass temporary register legislation to policyholders in the UK of EU companies so the reciprocal decision can be taken by the EU Commission or European authorities to protect EU citizens or UK expats living in the EU at the moment that is that that decision is not forthcoming and the Commission have said that companies have to look to private solutions but yes bilateral solutions are also possible it's within the gift of each individual member states to decide how insurance companies are authorized to provide services pay claims payout customers in their markets Helen Brannon yeah maybe a final word from you if we may it does say in the paper that they're going to try and work through a solution on this this nine-month issue of applying for certification for your organic produce I mean are you at all optimistic have your contacts with government so far led you to believe they've got the grip necessary to get this through well I get the impression working with with Defra the department that's really trying to pursue this that they are making great efforts to try and get these arrangements in place but there doesn't seem to be much progress yet and the notice today really doesn't give us any certainty at all it poses the questions it poses the problems but it doesn't give us the solutions and we really do need that certainty in business if we're not going to go severely backwards thank you so much for that clearly many rivers still to cross Helen Bradley Mike Thompson John Derby thank you all for giving us your insights well we wanted to speak to someone from the government today but there was nobody available we were keen to hear from the Labour Party too but they told us that there was no one available from their side either here's what Shadow brexit secretary Kirsten I had to say earlier today I think what ran through the speech really was a vagueness about what the government was really saying but also this that in a number of respects what the government was really saying is in the event of no deal we'll just have to keep on talking to the EU to find a way forward and in many ways that underlines the point that we've been making all along which is that no deal is viable because in the end the government is saying we'll just have to talk it through if we get to that position well let's talk through the politics of this now and how it might play out in the Conservative government in the coming weeks we're joined by Jacob Riis Marc chair of the European research group brexit supporting Tory MPs of course and Sarah Wollaston chair of the Health Select Committee who's joining us from Exeter and who backed romaine Sarah Wilson if I can start with you mr. Reese mark has sent this letter to conservative associations saying they should Chuck checkers what do you make of that well I think it's really disappointing and particularly considering the ERG effectively tables motions that would critically undermine the deal in any case and are now doing so direct to associations and to conservative colleagues and what Jacob needs to do is look at the the technical notices that have been published today and this is just the first tranche because they set out the sheer scale of the complexity that is going to be unleashed and all the unintended consequences and problems that will come with it and we absolutely have to avoid a no deal if we possibly can well you penned that letter you've you've tried to influence the debate clearly but you've also heard from the experts earlier in the program are you not making a no deal brexit more likely by the action you took in writing to associations making compromise within the party harder no I think the compromise within the party was set out by the prime minister at the mansion-house speech and that was something that both sides of the party were willing to accept and the country was willing to accept the problem with checkers is that it means not leaving the European Union remaining subject to the European Union's rulebook and therefore they factor to the European Court of Justice what many people in my position would like to see is a candor plus free trade deal with the European Union which would solve most of the issues that have been raised with these notices would it get through Parliament though well it'd be very likely to because it would depend what the alternative was if the alternative is leaving without any deal other than WTO terms then a free trade deal would be very attractive to many members of parliament much more so than check checkers probably would have a harder time getting through Parliament than a candor style trade deal but right now you've got a soft deal Labour Party effectively a soft breaks it and you've got a wing within your own party that would go for that I mean I'm just wondering the degree to which you might see it as advantageous to precipitate a No Deal situation I think a free trade deal can be achieved but that leaving on WTO terms is not as absurd ly frightening as the Chancellor of the Exchequer thinks it may be well the CIA said that people who talk about trading what WTO terms are not living in the real world that's you I suppose they're talking abut the CBI's record is even worse than the Treasury's the CBO I thought we should join the ERM it thought we should join the Euro and this one just about to leave their members views by their record and the CBI has very few members it's got lots of people beyond its strict membership who pay for it could be careful on how describe members of the CBI but what the Chancellor was saying is from an organisation that predicted on a vote to leave we faced a collapse in the economy of at least three point six percent and probably six percent with an increase of unemployment between 500 and 800 thousand the Treasury's brexit panic means that you can no longer trust the Treasury's forecast which is actually why George Osborne set up the Office of Budget Responsibility in the first place because he said as Chancellor that we need independent forecasters who have control I want to go back to Sarah Wallace in a moment but just before I do it's clear in your letter and you've said it tonight that you prefer the Canada style package to so-called No Deal or turn w Co terms but if the choice is WTO terms or checkers owt tones are much better because we've actually left the European Union and we can flourish in that way and if you look at what's come out today you had a discussion in David Roslin's package about importing regulations those would be set by the British government and the British government could deregulate and make things much easier for importers from all around the world not just from the European Union and that they haven't looked to in these papers today it's Sarah Wollaston do you find any of that reassuring I mean not at all I think it's really really worrying and this is about far more than tariffs and trade deals this is about complex networks that have been set up over 40 years and it's about the non-tariff barriers as well and I'm just thinking of the number of businesses I've visited in my constituency over the recess and everything from from language schools for example who are desperately worried about the the impact the loss of Erasmus for example and their partners are already moving to total partner up with businesses in the Republic of Ireland and I'm also thinking about businesses for example who who export and import from Europe medium-sized businesses for whom this is going to cause catastrophic costs and complexity particularly those who are dealing in hi and sort of small volumes of but of many different product lines and they are deeply worried about the impact of this and it's about the non-tariff barriers in particular with your Health Committee hat on and I don't if you heard what Mike Thompson from the pharmaceutical industry said earlier are you reassured in the way he is or do you have greater concerns than he because he's not I wouldn't say he's exactly completely reassured what what we're all welcoming God it is starting to properly plan for this because again without planning if we crash out with no deal and no transition and the government weren't planning for this property we would end up with critical shortages but what I would say is that a lot of things they're talking about about extra warehousing six weeks additional storage capacity air frating in of products that can't be that can't be stored because they have a very short shelf life things like medical radioisotopes all of that has a very significant cost attached yes and it costs ultimately will be passed on to the NHS and to all of us as all of us as taxpayers forgive me we need to know exactly what the cost of this is forgive me we're nearly out of time I'm sorry to interrupt like there's just one more question I want to ask before we leave this it's clearly going to be a political fight when people come back from the recess a lot of people talk about a possible leadership competition Aaron banks says he's joined the Conservative Party seems to be wanting to bring lots of EU people in with him do you welcome that I would like to see the party back to having the 2 million members it used to have and his but one of them is Aaron Bank but hold on I think the party is entitled to be cautious about people joining from other parties sometimes it's a great success I think Chris Grayling the very distinguished transport sector II was a member of the SDP many years ago and sometimes that's fine but the conservative parties are always in all parties should be cautious of entry ISM it's not beneficial hey Jake every smoke Sarah Watson thank you very much indeed thanks for joining us

Maurice Vega

23 Responses

  1. 2:05 you liar. EU memberstates have been prepping for the UK crashing out for years. Even going so far as to tailor advice to specific businesses.

    The EU27 know exactly what will happen, it's you and your imbeciles that are still afraid to speak the truth

  2. Oranges 🍊 ??? What worries me is the best example what they come up with is The UK can lower the tariffs on, so you will save 16% on Oranges. Even if I spend 100 pound on oranges a year I’ll save 16.
    If this is the best they can come up with …….

  3. Basically everyone, knowing a little bit about project management, knows the Pareto principle (80-to-20-rule). So if the government states, that 80% are already done, it doesn't make me feel better at all.

  4. Don't worry, be happy. 🤣🤦‍♂️ No medicine, but at least you get cheap oranges. You can't make this stuff up….😂

  5. hard to beleive uk was one of the top european countries in europe now were the thickest,.almost like we want to be non progressive on purpose, weakest or it apears that is the aim

  6. In short, there won't be Armageddon with Brexit, however things will cost more, and take longer for movement goods, services and people.
    The very reason the common market and removal of boarders.

  7. when you start lying its hard to stop. it takes a strong person to agree to do that. its like nazi germany. ones they voted evil they couldn't go back. its obvious that the brits school system have not explained the history of the brits and their real power. its because of centauries of tory lies that made the Brits liars. they don't want the truth. better go down lying than telling the truth. its a kapitalist thing. its like going to thailand with airplane while telling the world that you care about the world. kapitalist don't want truth. kapitalist go down lying and wil take everyone with them. Torie Lies is the way of british for hundreds of years. they don't wanted"mare liberum". power to the people laws and rules is the last thing the British want. they are the most corrupt nation ever. selling stone for bread.

  8. Oranges???? You had enough oranges from Spain, France, Italy, and Greece without tariffs… With the current agreements the EU had, you can buy oranges also elsewhere. The "new" oranges will come from the US (4000 miles) or South Africa 6000 miles. There is no guarantee those will be cheaper. The major part of the cost is transport. Oranges is a really cheap product.

  9. These guys had 2 years to prepare, claiming they could "eat and have the cake" and now they are complaining that there is no time.

  10. And I thought that there would not be a problem with delays at the Channel ports, because the trade with the EU would be replaced with great trade deals from outside the EU?
    So just get your medicine by boat to Swansea and Cardiff and Liverpool and Workington from Kenya, Paraguay, the USA and New Zealand. Or any ports and non-EU countries you fancy.

  11. The EU isn't playing hard ball. It's just following its own rules and regulations, and those of the World Trade Organisation. All of those rules and regulations were set with the consent of the UK, and often specifically at the UKs request, to benefit them as a member. Now the UK is trying to keep the benefits of being a member, while not being a member. It doesn't makes sense.
    Next to that it's also a legal impossibility and contradiction. For example: You simply can't have full control over your immigration AND an open border with Ireland.

  12. Brexit means the people will give "sovereignty and power"…. to the British government. This appears to be very risqué. I have not seen one single British politician who at least somehow managed to give me the impression that they were actually fit for governing, on either side.

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