Brexit, Briefly

The British exit from the European Union. It’s a thing that’s happening – or maybe not. Or maybe the United Kingdom is falling apart. There’s a lot going on, so let’s talk about Brexit, briefly. First: How’d we get here? In the UK, voters for UKIP—the UK Independence Party—
grew in number over the last few elections. Now, because the United Kingdom uses a terrible
first-past-the-post voting system, UKIP, rather than getting a proportional
number of seats in Parliament, largely drained votes from the Conservative Party. So, in the 2015 election, Conservatives promised to hold
an in-or-out referendum on the EU if they won, presumably to try and sway UKIP voters to their side. The Conservatives did win, in what was, by the way,
the most unrepresentative election in UK history— —thanks again First Past the Post,
click here for more details— and the promised referendum was scheduled. With huge voter turnout, Brexit won 52 to 48. So what happens next? Well, the EU has a law called Article 50
saying countries can exit. Basically it’s a “press here to leave” button. But the Conservative Prime Minister who promised
upon Brexit victory to press it immediately, instead resigned immediately,
leaving the UK politically doing nothing. There was talk of a second Brexit— “No-but-seriously-it-might-actually-happen-if-you-vote-for-it-this-one-is-legally-binding-Referendum”, or re-electing Parliament. But then the new UK Prime Minister was appointed
and she said that wouldn’t happen. Presumably the UK Parliament
now needs to pass a “Yes we are really pressing the Brexit button law”, but they seem to be in no rush. Meanwhile the EU wants the UK to get on with it,
but the UK wants to pre-decide all the details of what an independent
UK’s relationship with the EU would look like, but the EU doesn’t want to talk
until the UK actually leaves. Not surprising because talking before gives negotiating
advantage to the UK, and talking after to the EU, and since the EU can’t force the UK to press the button, there’s a sort of negotiating stalemate. Finally, because there’s really
no procedure for anything, the only correct answer to
“What happens next?” is… “Who knows!” We are standing in a fog with naught
but speculation, so… Speculation time! Acting as a Brexit bookie, I’m putting 15% odds
on the chance of Maximum Brexit occurring, where the UK is a fully independent nation, with total
control over her trade deals and immigration and laws. The UK is to the EU as Brazil is to the EU:
just another country. If that probability seems low, what with
the new pro-Brexit Prime Minister, and with the required going against
the will of the people and all, here’s my reasoning why.
Speculation the 1st: The Conservatives didn’t want the UK
to really leave the EU. Though they campaigned for the referendum,
they were officially neutral on the issue, and, I suspect, privately against. If you think the Conservatives are
the more business friendly party, the UK leaving the EU would be
bad news for many businesses that prefer larger economic blocs – like banks. Pre-2015 election,
the Conservatives probably thought citizens wouldn’t really vote for Brexit,
so they could safely gamble to sway UKIP voters, but again – surprise! – 52 to 48. Even the new prime minister,
who’s all “Brexit means Brexit”, was against it before she got her current job.
Speculation the 2nd: Some Brexiteers didn’t really want to win either.
The Brexit campaign admitted after winning, they have zero plans what to do, which sounds a lot like
“We never planned to win.” The leadership of UKIP resigned – an odd choice on
what should be a theoretical crowning moment of glory, and after the Conservative Prime Minister resigned, the
most prominent Brexiteers didn’t want to take the job. Funny, that. Also interesting to note:
the referendum was set up to have zero legal power, something all the parties agreed on before hand. It was essentially an opinion poll,
though not at all marketed that way to voters. All this is to speculate the majority of
people in power do not want Brexit to happen. To be clear, while governments could just totally
ignore the vote and still be technically correct, there’s no way that doesn’t look
horrifically undemocratic. But, while Brexit was sold on the idea
of a stronger independent Britain, the international markets and national
economy have strongly disagreed, and the geography of the vote have indicated
it might not be the whole of Britain leaving. After the vote, Scotland immediately said that
if the UK leaves the EU, Scotland isn’t coming. She voted to stay, so she will. If maximum Brexit occurs, I put 97% odds
on Scotland leaving the UK and staying with the EU. Add to that, if Scotland leaves, I give 45% odds
of Northern Ireland leaving as well, rejoining Ireland Ireland. And, crazy as it sounds,
if Scotland and Northern Ireland leave, I’ll actually put 5% odds
on London leaving England and becoming an independent city-state in the EU,
which would be kind of awesome, because who doesn’t love city-states? This would leave England and Wales on their own, and of course while it’s possible they’d do just fine –
there are plenty of comparable independent nations – the international markets have already said
“do not want” to just the UK leaving as a whole, so I wouldn’t bet on it being a rosy future, and it’s probably not something many Brexit voters
would have picked were it on the referendum. But even ignoring the breakup of the Union,
when thinking about the likelihood of Maximum Brexit, on one side are the majority of people
who voted for it, and on the other side are
the businesses and the politicians, even, I speculate,
many who pretend to be for it. The politics of power here is why
I give such low odds to maximum Brexit, and why I give 30% odds to the second option:
literally, nothing happens. The UK government plays the stalling game forever,
pretending to move forward while doing nothing. This politically tumultuous time becomes
a trivia fact for a future video about how the UK has been in the process
of “leaving” the EU for a hundred years, like when countries sometimes discover
they’re technically still at war because there’s an old declaration they forgot to annul. It’s not a great outcome, because governments and
businesses and people don’t like uncertainty, but never underestimate the human ability to
procrastinate on paperwork. Even Miss “Brexit means Brexit”
is also Miss “Mustn’t be too hasty” about actually pressing the Article 50 button. But the last option I think is the most likely: 55% odds on a non-Brexit Brexit. The European Union has many asterisks
and layers to her membership. The UK could leave the European Union, slide over into the European Economic Area,
and be technically correct that she’s left the EU. Actually, before this whole brouhaha,
the UK had arranged a deal with the EU to become more like an EEA member,
that was dropped once the referendum started, but that deal is lying on a table somewhere…
(just saying) This would be the most pure compromise,
leaving both sides… unhappy. Nothing Brexit voters actually
cared about would change: Immigration, EU membership fees and binding EU laws,
all this would remain the same. The only thing different would be the UK giving up
all her representatives in the EU Parliament, so she would have zero influence on EU law
she would still have to follow, which is not something pro-EU voters
probably wanted either. But nonetheless, I give the greatest odds
of this happening because nothing would change for businesses,
making them happy, and for politicians it’s a face-saving maneuver
to have “listened to the people” and to “leave” while doing neither and possibly avoiding
the breakup of the United Kingdom. Who wants to be prime minister during that? In conclusion: None of these outcomes are clean wins. The first is very probably the end of the United Kingdom, and goes against what seems to be
economic self-interest – but maybe not, who knows? – and the other to go against, like, the idea of democracy. The UK stands at a path that splits into many futures. Maybe the EU burns herself to the ground
due to all her problems, and “Wales-gland” rises from the ashes
a mighty phoenix. Maybe the UK gets the worst of everything;
maybe literally nothing changes. Which leads where? Which is the best?
It’s impossible to know. The UK can only stand in the fog,
speculate, and pick a path. Good luck, United Kingdom,
whatever you choose to do. This video is brought to you in part by Squarespace. Do you want to make a website explaining
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to let them know that you came from this channel. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
Place your bets.

Maurice Vega

100 Responses

  1. With brexit looking like it's going to end in no-deal, the SNP just passed a bill declaring their intentions to hold another independence referendum, hopefully with less lies on both sides this time so the people can make an actual decision, but I think you were right, on your odds there grey xD

  2. Fuck the UK, the UK will always be a loser, Europe can be of you do not blackmail, fuck off finally out of the EU, we can not expect !! Without you, the German Empire will still exist! The domination Germany in the EU did not come because of the history of World War II but because of the fact that Germany has become the land of poets and thinkers through its inventions and worldwide beloved products like German cars and other products to the economic power of Europe !!! Germany's export revenues are good for the whole of the EU, that's why Germany rightly dominates Europe !!!! Without the billions of euros that Germany pays each year to the EU, all over Europe would be a shitload and live in poverty !!! Greece was defended in 2010 only thanks to the help of Germany from bankruptcy! Germany helped Greece with 15 billion euros !! So keep your mouth shut and do not talk so bad about Germany but be grateful to Germany !! If you prefer to find the faults on your own, if your countries invent and make better products, then your countries would sell much more commodities and become economically stronger to have a bigger influence in the EU !! The Germany domimated the EU is also due to the population, Germany has with 82 million inhabitants, the largest population in Europe! Russia is not there Russia is only 25% in Europe !!

  3. Well, it was brief and very poorly explained! The red button is in reality "Article 50" that was pressed in April 2017…it is not waiting to be pressed!…You cannot explain brexit in a few minutes…it's way more complicated!

  4. A very biased view……this person does not understand the situation at all! Most of the people want Brexit, the politicians generally do not and the business community just want the uncertainty to stop! The EU has a failing economy and nationalism is on the rise in member states. The EU leaders secretly plan to replace native Europeans with African migrants and eventually absorb many north African countries to become a pan-Mediterranean super-state ( the Barcelona Declaration and the Kalergi plan). This scenario sounds extreme but EU leaders are not elected directly by the people so its more like a dictatorship than a democracy. They are prepared to sacrifice the culture and way of life of their European citizens to achieve enormous power…..hence allowing the mass migrations seen in recent years. And don't forget the other signs of dictatorship which we are seeing…..control of mainstream media and preventing free speech etc.

  5. 3 years later and the EU still makes it hard for the UK to leave, although the UK isn't trying either.

  6. I want you to remember that the European Union is held in Belgium.

    I want you to know how corrupt that countries politics is..

  7. The UK deserves to be free from this corrupt tyranny!!!
    Salvini and Orban knows what is good for their countries!!!
    But those who loves the EU do not care about their own countries!!!

  8. 3 years later:
    Nothing has changed
    The possibilities are still all on the table
    Nobody wants to do anything
    Now Non Brexit seems more likely

  9. Heyho! Me from the future. So 3 years later it's still kind of in a "Who knows what happens next?" situation but with a deadline that if we can't figure out what happens by Halloween this year, we'll just leave and that's the end of the story so…I guess college students aren't the only people who are adept at procrastinating for 3 years.

  10. And so politicians worldwide stare wide eyed at the fact that, yes, you can absolutely get away with this kind of shit

  11. My bet, 99.999% wales conquers the world
    0.001% worldwide depression
    Edit: hey I got a like! Wait why is it blue

  12. And here we are, it’s June 2019 and not a sh*t has happened. Yes, May has gone and now there’s a chance the next prime minisiter does something… but, looking at the UK’s recent Brexit related history, the stalemate may continue forever…

  13. Britain: I’m leaving
    EU: OK
    Britain: I’m leaving!
    EU: Ok we are literally letting you
    Britain: No you can’t let me stay!

  14. You do realise that the reason the Scottish Referendum failed was because they all realaised that they would turn out like Ireland: a shitty, poor EU country. With that in mind, the OLDER Scots voted NO in comparison with the younger ones brainwashed by the SNP propaganda.

  15. I think the odds you gave for northern ireland leaving are a bit too high because there have been many conflicts about whether or not Northern Ireland should rejoin the republic of Ireland and they don't seem to want to.
    I speak as an irishman

  16. I don't have any information, so take what I'm about to say with a grain of salt, but by following only the information in this video, I think that conservative party was kinda dumb. They promised an vote on whether the UK should stay in the EU, even though the privately wanted UK to stay in the EU. However, if the citizens liked UKIP more, but they still voted for the conservative, then you know they want the UK to leave the EU. Think about it, UKIP didn't promise such a vote, so they wanted UK to stay. Why would you vote for a party that wasn't your favourite but promised a vote on Brexit? That's right, because the citizens (even the UKIP supporters) wanted Brexit.

  17. During this time many Nationalists were voted to power in other EU States.
    People that don’t want to abolish their local culture and replace it through a social engineering experiment.
    The current US admin is willing to help , specially the UK.

  18. now the MerCoSur is having a trade something with the European Union… so more complicated things. could you do a video on that?

  19. The Brexit is going to be a disaster for the U.K.
    It's not too late to stop the Brexit now, but time is running out for the U.K.

  20. I know you need to pack alot into 6.5 minutes. But wow! You speak faster than the chipmunks, only in a normal voice.

  21. 2015: Conseravtives promised to hold an in and out referendum on the EU if they want
    2025:Conservatives cut all homeless people in half

  22. and now 3 years later

    nothing has happened

    except the fact that boris johnson is now prime minister and we’re all gonna die here

  23. Hello British, I am pro EU and I am very happy that you will leave (hopefully). UK was never really part of EU. UK always voted against all proposal to improve the unification of the EU. We will not miss you.
    Soon or later you will want to reenter in the EU, and when it will happen, you will enter at the same conditions of all the other Countries, without all your unjustified privileges, which you got. Bye bye UK. EU doesn't need you.

    And I am very disappointed, that in 2019 you are still not out. After 46 years in the EU you still even don't know the 4 basic rules of the community. To get what you want (no free circulation of people), you can't keep the advantages of the single market. You are wasting time like children since 2016. Just exit and go.

  24. 2:44 Grey do your research. The government said they would implement what the people would decide. The vote was overruled by an EU judge who had the audacity to say that the UK’s rules are irrelevant.

  25. Just to point out majority of Scottish employment is public sector reliance on England and Wales, too much for them to actually dissolve the Union Jack. They would have a worse economic status then Greece if they broke the Union. (which disqualifies them from staying being in the European Union)

  26. Scottland leaving is nothing new; Northern Ireland, ditto, although not without renewed "troubles", I am afraid. But London leaving is new, and, frankly, an appealing idea. :o)

  27. This video didn’t age well… yay Boris Johnson and the breakup of the UK. Also it’s kinda satisfying that the people who voted against mays deal got voted out of office. Karma, people

  28. It's taken us three years to get our shit together but now we are leaving full steam ahead, the EU is likely to go into shock. Mark my words.

  29. August 15, 2019

    With Boris in office, May's deal thoroughly dead, and waaaaay to little time to negotiate a new deal from scratch (plus an EU which is unlikely to significantly change what its offering, or drop the backstop), here's what I predict:

    60% Total Brexit of October 31st by default, since despite parliamentarians not wanting "No Deal", they still wont have a deal that they're willing to get behind in the next 2 months.
    10% Boris doesn't actually want no deal, and is also able to get enough changes to May's deal in the next two months (maybe rewording the backstop somehow) to get it to pass Parliament
    30% Labour, the SNP, the Independent Group/Change UK/ Whatever they're called this week, plus a few Torrey rebels cause a vote of no confidence and form a govnt. of national unity, at which point they ask for an extension where:
    a) 40% chance of a peoples vote scenario with the options being May's Deal, No Deal, and Call off Brexit, in which case the latter probably wins, causing a massive schism in UK politics where half the country feels betrayed for the next generation, eventual leading to a further breakdown of political trust and good will.
    b) 50% chance they pass May's deal (or something incredibly similar to it) themselves
    c) 10% that they also can't agree to pass any sort of deal, causing No Deal once more by default.

  30. Interested in Brexit? My latest video looks at the psychology behind leave and remain and how both were answering very different questions with their vote

  31. So… it appears that Boris will be the serving P.M. that sees a hard brexit and the break up of the U.K. that's right in line with him

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