Absolutely DEVASTATING Numbers for Trump


today, I have both incredibly tremendous numbers
for Donald Trump coming up. Um, uh, uh, in a sort of different context,
but also devastating numbers for Donald Trump. So we’re a year out from the election. Yesterday we talked about how more than likely
this is going to be an election like most elections that comes down to the results in
some key battleground States. We looked yesterday at how Donald Trump is
fairing in particular States and head to head match ups against the three front runners
in the democratic primary, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. Fine. Trump is doing a quite poorly in these battleground
States against Biden and Bernie, and he’s actually doing pretty well in those battleground
States against Elizabeth Warren. However, let’s at least briefly look at the
national numbers because if the national numbers are even close to accurate, we could be heading
towards a historic election defeat for Donald Trump. So let’s take a look. Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup is leading
Donald Trump nationally by 17 according to a new Washington post poll, Elizabeth Warren
is leading Trump by 15 and Bernie Sanders right in there leading Trump at 14. Now, these are truly stunning numbers and
of course, we’ve not seen a popular vote victory in a presidential campaign by 1415 or 17 for
a very, very long time. Offhand, I don’t remember when the last time
was. According to the same poll, even mayor Pete,
Buddha, judge and Camila Harris are leading Trump. Uh, but not by as much. So let’s go through it piece by piece. As I said yesterday, do I expect Donald Trump
to lose the popular vote in 2020 by 14 points by 15 points, by 17 points? I don’t expect that, uh, I believe some people
who today say they would vote for a Democrat will end up voting for Donald Trump either
out of fear or due to propaganda or incumbency bias. I believe that it is going to tighten and
indeed a lot of that lopsided popular vote is going to end up coming out of big blue
States like California as we saw in 2016. If you look at polling today in States that
are expected to be the difference makers, we already looked at those numbers yesterday. It is much tighter. You’re looking at four to six, you know, even
a much, much narrower margins. But still, if the popular vote is uh, even
half as lopsided as this polling suggests, we could have an unprecedented, unprecedented
defeat for Donald Trump in November of 2020. But Donald Trump could also get himself reelected,
even losing the popular vote by three, four, even five or six points. There are models where Trump loses the popular
vote by five points, but still wins the electoral college. Although as you get to five six, seven, it
starts to become more and more unlikely that you could lose the popular vote by so much
and still managed to win the electoral college, but these are not numbers that anyone who
is on our side should be counting on or seeing as a signal that we should relax and not worry
about the outcome because the let down that was 2016 every single person should be voting
no matter where you vote. Now, one good sign for the anti-Trump movement
is that if you look at the internals of how this big rift between Trump and the democratic
front runners has opened up, of course, Democrats overwhelmingly voting against Trump. Of course, Republicans overwhelmingly voting
for Trump, but independence have been slowly shifting away from Donald Trump, and that’s
a good sign for the anti-Trump movement. Republicans mostly love the guy. Democrats mostly hate the guy and it’s going
to be a turnout game, but independent voters shifting to be more and more against Trump
is a bad sign for him in a good side for Democrats. Lastly, we really need to not underestimate
that even if these numbers remain this way for the next year, even if we get out the
vote, there can be another 11th hour comi letter or you know, some equivalent to it. Obviously it’s not going to be comi in 2020,
but some equivalent to it. The effect of strategic algorithmic online
advertising could be a difference maker. Uh, the, um, voter suppression tactics that
are employed by Republicans at the state level. So the real risk here is over confidence,
which could put Donald Trump in office for another four years and what we need to do
in order to, uh, sort of sort of, uh, fight back or overwhelm those factors that at the
last minute could help Donald Trump is turnout on our side needs to be so high that none
of those things end up making a difference. So register to vote, help other people registered
to vote, remind people to register to vote, confirm that you are registered to vote. If you believe that you are, report any registration,
irregularities, or voter purchase to both the media and your local election officials. Now, not October 29th not on election day
or the day before. We’ve got to get on this now. Um, and if all of these things come together,
then we may be able to remove Donald Trump and you know, 17 points down in a poll to
a Joe Biden. Who cares? We don’t need to win by 17 it doesn’t matter
if we can trust those polls, we just need to win. And that is what the focus needs to be for
the next, I guess it’s like 359 days or something like that. The countdown is very much on

Maurice Vega

100 Responses

  1. These "independent voters" make me cringe. We might as well call them "wishy washy, stand for nothing" voters. I couldn't and I haven't lived that way.

  2. Unfortunately a big popular election win might still be an electoral college loss. Another "contrary" election (where popular vote winner loses) will absolutely break this country.

  3. What groups were polled? What has been done to break the RNC control of the Electoral College? If the RNC is still in control they can once again set aside the actual vote numbers and appoint whomever they wish. Similar to what was done in 2016.

  4. Just vote guys I’m a Brit , but your president matters to the free world you cannot let this maniac embarrass your once great country any more . All decent people must get out and vote for anyone rather than this disgrace of a ———— 😡

  5. A way more interesting poll to do would be :
    supposed that DT is impeached, resigns or just chooses not to seek nomination in 2020 –
    what are the numbers of the top five Democrats against Pence?

  6. No David, wrong again. The polls you’re referencing are all the phony ones…just as “phony” as the Emoluments Clause in the Constitution. The White House has their own polling sources and they’re predicting a Trump landslide. They’re also predicting that Trump won’t be impeached (everyone knows you can’t impeach a president when the economy is so good) and that coal will definitely be coming back. So suck it Dems!

  7. Trump will never get my vote.
    I don't need to follow a leader who's crooked & corrupt.
    I don't need to support a prestudent who's in bed with Russia, China & the Saudis above America.
    I don't need to follow a leader who can't make his own fortune.
    I don't need to follow a leader who can't keep his own household intact.
    I don't need to follow a leader who insults my intelligence by lying in my face everyday.
    I don't need to support a leader who rapes & abuses women & young girls.
    I don't need to support a president who can't read beyond pictograms.
    I don't need to support a president who hates my people because they're poor & not white.
    I don't need to support a president who claims to be Christian but refuses to ask for forgiveness of his sins because somehow (he's) perfect.
    I don't need to support a president who makes fun of the disabled. and on, and on, and on…

  8. They elected a Malignant Narcissist ! Psychopaths brainwash, exploit & manipulate others through Gaslighting them. He’s done NOTHING for this country but destroy it & they’re not even aware. FOX doesn’t tell them ANYTHING truthful! https://static1.squarespace.com/static/568f2ee8cbced686e2f4683a/t/57748c9f3e00be33b76bb4ba/1467255993131/Surviving+The+Narcissist+Epidemic.pdf

  9. Stop this popular vote nonsense. States elect the President of the United States. The only politician who has all the States as a constituency. Make sure your cousins in Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, Texas, and Georgia get out and vote. No one cares about margins of victory in California, New York, Texas, and Florida. Don't get confident by any polls. Get everyone you can register to vote! Also. Go Bernie please.

  10. Honestly if Trump gets re-elected by the Electoral College and wins by the direct vote of the people, then we NEED to get rid of the Electoral College! As in 2016, he would NOT be President "Of the People." He "cheated" to win then and I never accepted it as a "win" for him and I won't accept it again in 2020. Obviously, it is a seriously flawed system and did not represent what our Country chose, and in Trump's case, it would be a continuing and further devastating blow to our Democracy!

  11. Its gonna be an historic landslide loss the likes we 've never seen.AMERICA IS COMING TOGETHER TO BULLDOZE THIS INEPT STUPID MAN THE HELL OUT.

  12. The polls do not matter – we need a blue wave to bring down this administration – DUMP TRUMP 2020 and take back our country! Screw "making it great again", because it already WAS great!!! TBOC

  13. HOW COME THE REOUBLICANS CAN GET AWAY WITH SO MUCH DIRTY THINGS. THEY BEING CHEATING, STEALING FOR LONG TIME AND DEMOCRATS CANNOT DO NOTHING ABOUT IT. DEMOCRATS NEED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE, STOP BEING TO NICE WITH THESE PEOPLE. THE LIKE TO PLAY DIRTY AND NOT EVEN SHAME.

  14. Good advice, David! This is from Toronto, CANADA! Trump is a disgrace and an insult to your country! Just get the vote out! Trump has caused the whole world to question the position of the USA as a respected world power. You MUST get rid of him!

  15. Trump may not be the best but you’d have to have a death wish to vote for Warren or Sanders. It would be the end of America as we know it.

  16. No…! Trump is doing amazingly well… Best poll numbers ever. The REAL polls have him with the highest poll results in history. Trump says so himself!

  17. Polls based on popular votes are questionably misleading. At present, the two most significant factors impacting 2020 are the upcoming public House impeachment hearings and possible trial in the Senate.

  18. Biden at the top is the most shocking thing about this. Who are these people? Biden is crap and he's not bringing Obama with him, so to all the Obama fans forget about that.

  19. Reagan probably win the popular vote by that much. Didn't he win 49 of 50 states? He only lost his competitor's home state or something like that, right?
    Fucking Reagan. That single day in history changed the face of politics in America to this day. Dems looked at that victory and decided they had to go super right wing instead of just seeing it as a really charismatic actor candidate. In the pre internet era super charismatic candidates had a huge huge advantage whereas now all their bullshit would be coming it daily over the internet without the network news gatekeepers holding all the keys.

  20. The economics is slowing down dollar store are closing down by the hundred with company shut down too and factory are laid-off peoples by the hundred too what President Obama and his economics team did have ran it course now.

  21. I'm not worrying! I prayed so now I keep praising a God! I don't want 2 hear any more bad news about Trump! He will be removed!

  22. No matter what the numbers say, don't stay home come election day. Get your vote in. I hope to see Trump beat by at least 10 million votes. We need to let the world know that while we can be fooled some of the time, we can't be fool all of the time!

  23. I'd like to know what you think the results will be if Bernie doesn't become the nominee. I don't care how many points Warren or Biden lead Trump by now. You know as well as I do that if Bernie's not the nominee voter turnout will be poor, and you know as well as I do why that is the case. Let's not pretend otherwise

  24. The biggest inauguration ever…and then the biggest poll loss. Grats Donnie tiny hands! Also why does trump look like a dog? His hands are tiny. The size of baby hands, Really just a big baby if you look at him. Woof

  25. It’s way too far out. The election is going to be dirty and it’ll be a tight result. Just wait till Murdoch kicks into top gear.

  26. The world is giving us a test,
    If we are dumb enough to let a dictating fool – "tRUMP" win in 2020 our allies are going to walk, forever.

  27. the really scary thing is these are Trump Numbers, will they flow over to the GOP IF Trump ain't running? i.e. if they do Impeach Trump? If Trump is still there we will be rid of a lot of the GOP, if the GOP dumps Trump to save themselves….they just might save themselves……..People who will turn out to Vote against Trump may not bother to Vote against Moscow Mitch and the rest of the traitorous members of the GOP, I really hope I am wrong, Trump deserves to be Impeached though my preference would be for the People to put Trump out on his ass but either way is fine……so long as the swamp gets drained and Moscow Mitch etc gets kicked out on their ass too!

  28. Don't rely on polls. Need to vote, VOTE BLUE, VOTE AGAINST THE GOP, VOTE WITH SANE SOUND INTEGRITY. VOTE for America. Not a trump- merica. He is no a god. He need to be stopped before it too late.

  29. He has no path to win. And if you he was to try to win … let’s just say he should be smart and take the LBJ route!

  30. We’ll probably need three Democrat votes for every one vote for trump. Not only because of the electoral college but also to keep up with extreme voter suppression that could cost us hundreds of thousands of votes. And we can’t forget about all of the fake news on social media etc. and foreign election hacking and manipulation.

  31. This isn't reliable coz Devil Trump and evil Republicans party will do to win!They are going to do the ABOMINABLE TACTICS! Voters suppression,lopsided Gerrymandering, intentionally breakdown the election voters machine, manipulation of Democrats voters registration, reducing the number of voting days, placing the Democrats precinct inaccessible, political ads distortion. They do not have good conscience! All in their minds are evilness and WICKEDNESS. They're not human! THEY ARE ANIMALS!

  32. Donald Trump will close the gap nationally and beat the Democratic nominee in the Battleground States and he will be the next president. The only Democrat that has a slim chance of beating Donald Trump in the Battleground States is Joe Biden.

  33. Also I think the media sharing poll numbers does a de-service to our elections.. everyone get out and vote this is the only way.. what does sharing poll numbers accomplish exactly in this alt-reality works

  34. Odd, that the New York Times, saud his numbers are getting better and in the battle ground states. But the David Parkman, isn't exactly a genius.

  35. I'll vote for Bernie, Biden is just a corporate shill and Warren is just a lying schmuck. If it comes down to Biden or Warren then forget it.

  36. If the election shows the Democrats are looking really strong, then impeachment becomes pointless and maybe even counterproductive, but I don't think that really matters, impeachment will move forward and the house will impeach him.

  37. Stop being distracted …….impeachment makes this a mute point……i don't see him at all running…..maybe running as in fleeing , like a fugitive , but not for office lol
    Stay focused America
    Peace

  38. Sure, Hillary Also won all the Polls. Trump Will win again – and this impeachment thing Will Be a boomerang for democrats. Sorry!

  39. His faithful base is hoping and acting like those poll numbers are absolutely fake news and Biden won't win!! Reelection is assured!

  40. The Comey letter this time will be AGAINST. trump . What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. KARMA IS A BITCH . What’s goes around comes around .

  41. I got numbers for Trump and republicans! Numbers that they're not going to like! Harvard did a study and found that "1 out of every 3 republicans is dumber than the other two"!

  42. VOTE BLUE, NO MATTER WHO. It doesn't matter who he/she is, it doesn't matter where they stand on any issue, it doesn't matter if you prefer someone else, but he/she is a clear loser in this election – PICK THE STRONGEST CADIDATE, and DO NOT SPLIT THE VOTES AWAY from the leading, most successfull one. Forget everything else, forget the predictions and polls, disregard all the details about the policy differences of various Democratic candidates, just CHECK IF YOU ARE REGISTERED and ABLE TO VOTE, even if you have voted before, check it WELL IN ADVANCE because of many hidden, unexpected voter suppression methods now in place all over the country, make sure you have time and means to reach the nearest functioning ballot box, then check again if it is still opened the day before the election, and go to vote. Forget what any Democratic candidate wants to do about ANY issue, and even if you do not like the ultimate challenger, even if Facebook "accidentally reveals" that the final Dem candidate is in fact an alien from Mars, a secret communist, terminally ill twin brother of George Soros, a member of Hillary's satanic coven, or a Ukrainian spy that Bill Barr has just opened a huge investigation into – just stay calm, keep sane and rational, disregard the Trumpian far-right screams and schemes, ban Fox news, Mark Zuckerberg, Breitbart, Shapiro & the rest from your brain, collect everyone you know and are related to, check all possible ways that could prevent you and others from voting until the last minute, then organize transport to the nearest functioning ballot box for everyone, and VOTE BLUE, NO MATTER WHO. Start your preparations NOW, and good luck from Switzerland, America. Our prayers and thoughts are with you.

  43. Unfortunately all Donald Trump has to do is go on Fox and say that the Democrats are aliens from an evil socialist planet and every single Republican would believe it.
    Bam his numbers go up right after that

  44. How do they account for people who lie to pollsters; deliberately trying to skew the numbers? Also, do they only call land lines?

  45. The national numbers are still very important because of impeachment. Gop senators in states where Trump is down ten points are going to be squeezed. If Mitch looks like he is losing his race, or even the majority.. it takes away a lot of his power

  46. On this Veterans day we have to have a coward in chief in the oval office, what a shame for this great country that I served for over 22 years.

  47. tRUMP ran on infrastructure (to no avail), and a border wall (when everyone knows, a wall only keeps out the honest people) and the economy (in a slump due to his Tariffs, tanked farming and let’s not forget, CBP’s crimes against humanity through ICE’s money pit at the border (misdirecting defense spending), and his revolving door circus administration, comedic jobs mostly about his fly by the seat of his pants psychopath obsessive tweets, and tRUMP has yet to contribute to jobs creation, has cost States millions for not picking up tabs for his rally’s, and has cost tax payers millions to promote his personal corrupt agenda, making America the laughing stock of other world nations. Sad but true..

  48. wow USA has exposed itself in big corruption ,also all courts are rigged ,fake trials ,demonic laws, "freemason judges ,police,lawyers" . Designed to encarcerate blacks and illegal migrants for 90000dollars per year each. Freemason illuminati white house. Corrupt as mexican governments from cops to congress. USA congress is demonic and worship the devil.

  49. The numbers are still to high in benefit for Trump. He just need to win/manipulate the important swingstats and can still win with only 30-40% of voters. Not to mention that every democrazy hold their election on Sundays by the use of pen and paper instead of shitty machines. USA election system sucks.

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