2020 Election Prediction | Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump | May 9th, 2019

hey guys welcome back today's video today is Thursday May 9th 2019 and today we're gonna be looking at a 2020 presidential election prediction between senator Bernie Sanders from the state of Vermont and president Donald Trump so you all a bit of an explanation as to why I was gone pretty much number one my microphone book broke not so much the microphone the USB CD USB a converter broke and then I got another one and that one broke as well so I have a new one hopefully this one lasts for a while it cost me like 20 dollars but it's good now the AP government exam is also over which means that this is the only place I'll be talking about politics to which is pretty interesting for me personally and then also you know think she's got really busy so I'm gonna try to get back to daily uploads at least you know four to five times a week and yeah so today we're looking at a 2020 election prediction now my reasoning behind doing this video is I know I've done this video in the past I know a lot of you guys have said that my content pretty much repeats it usually wasn't like that you know a couple months ago when the uploads were pretty consistent I mean day by day there were uploads about you know 2018 Senate actually know so probably right after that and the content definitely did vary mainly because of the fact that there's a lot more to cover right now we're just in that in-between phase where we're between 2020 and away from 2018 that it's really hard you know to gauge upcoming election sure we have a couple of governor elections coming up in 2019 and one special election but not too much important too many important things are happening right now I am gonna try to branch off into other things so that I'm not repeating this and again like I say every single month leading up to 2020 I will be doing a Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren prediction mainly because those are the top candidates right now but we may have an she throw food a judge in there if he holds out up until the month of June then I'll start including him essentially just the top three candidates nationwide and it's always gonna be birdy and Joe Biden and then we're gonna lead into whoever's in third and fourth place but again we are going to do this Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump prediction so we'll start off with the Bernie Sanders camp the last time I did this was about a month ago and last time I uploaded a video was about two to three weeks ago so again I do really apologize for that I'm gonna try to do a little bit more content for you guys and especially if you want to see anything in particular just calm that down below I'm not going to do any historical Elections right now that would definitely take a little bit longer than doing these analyzation videos for Real Clear Politics or a 2020 lecture prediction but does anything in particular you guys want to see an election night also I could do if you guys want to see that don't know if you guys want to if you do then I'm more than happy to do so but today we're gonna be focusing on a Bernie Sanders Donald Trump video and I know I've said that like nine times so we're gonna actually get into it right now so the first things first the website i'm using is yet another political map simulator y AP ms comm it has so many features it's really really helpful and you guys can go ahead and go to it and use this map and as an alternative to 270 to win but we'll start off with the bernie sanders states actually know we'll start off with the donald trump states considering that i usually start out sometimes with the democratic states and we're just gonna see exactly how much of an advantage the democratic party typically has in a regular election so we're gonna hear car drives all the quote unquote safe republican states again some of these states can fluctuate into the likely column and none of these hits are probably I mean probably I mean Utah maybe if a third-party candidate comes in but usually these since you're gonna stay between safe and likely it's not gonna alter the electoral map whatsoever so we're gonna keep these states here I mean if 2020 rolls around Oklahoma goes blue and you come back to this video and you you know come after me for this okay I understand but you know looking at the map right now these are the safe Republican states for the safe democratic states we see the states in the West Coast those are the states that we always start off with a state of Illinois that little you know Island a blue in a sea of red as of right now we don't know about the rest mode states but go ahead or going ahead and characterizing all the northern states that are typically democratic states means first District is typically typically a safe district for the Democratic Party and of course would be for Bernie Sanders especially with his better appeal to the Northeast than most other Democrats like Carla Harris or even Elizabeth Warren to be honest I think Bernie Sanders would do better in the Northeast and higher but that puts Bernie Sanders at 183 electoral votes to 125 for Donald Trump so again looking at this map not much changes a lot of you guys have said that the electoral map doesn't really change that much but the American electorate doesn't really change so much either if you look back all the way from the year 2000 pretty much the south in the Republican Party the last time that we saw the state of Georgia go blue was in 1992 and that is one of the few swing states in the south North Carolina included that was 2008 the last time I went blue and it was only about 14,000 votes and if we're looking at you know the Northeast that area is typically blue look over into the West that areas typically blue Midwest is typically red it's just really hard to gauge not Midwest I guess you could say I guess red wall area but it's just typically red nail lacquer the electoral map does not change because the American electorate does not change it's not really you know my fault because a lot of you have you know come after me for that I understand that to an extent that it does get a little repetitive but again that's just how it is I'm not gonna flip you know Oklahoma blue just because I want a little variation in the electoral map but let's go ahead and characterize some of these other states so we know that some of these states are going to be likely Republican states they're not obviously going to be safe or just lean so we'll start off with the safe likely I started a likely estate of them all and I would actually say that is the state of Texas the state of Texas definitely has gotten a lot more attention recently and a new poll Kuzma has come out from the state of Texas showing Joe Biden ahead by 1% and Bernie Sanders behind by 2% I think that is pretty interesting it may be 2 or 4 percent but I think that number is pretty interesting I do not think that's actually going to be the result I'm thinking that Texas is gonna be a six to seven point margin which is the likely state by my scale and I do think that is something that he's gonna help out Donald Trump looking at better or orc yes he seems like the candidate that possibly could flip Texas the polling numbers didn't indicate that but again there's very few candidates that could actually make Texas a lot lot closer no matter where it wasn't 2016 this one will probably just drop two to three percentage points which can be a lot in some other states not so much in the Santa Texas looking at some of these other democratic states Virginia is definitely going to be a likely democratic state if not a safe democratic state as of right now I'm going to characterize it as likely one that's just how it is right now Virginia going to the likely Democratic column pretty solid a democratic state to be completely honest New Mexico and Colorado these are other states that I can now add into the likely Democratic column and again looking at the 2018 2016 2014 2012 data it looks very good for the Democratic Party I think the last time Colorado went for a Republican in a statewide election you know Senate election was 2014 and I was during a Republican wave year typically in the presidential elections I think the last time I went for the Republican Party was 2004 and again it's a pretty good democratic state as of right now same thing goes say to New Mexico that one's gonna be more of a democratic state than the state of Colorado keep in mind likely ranges from six to fourteen percent so a lot of improvement I'm sorry a big range for the Democratic Party there could be six percent could be fourteen percent rated about the same I would say New Mexico is about the upper end of that Colorado is about the mid you know possibly eight to ten percent depending on the candidate but always could narrow down to six seven percent but still going to be a likely state especially for someone like Bernie Sanders Donald Trump however I do see doing well in an area like Nebraska second a lot of you guys have said that the roll appeal and I mean I've made that argument as well before I live right now I'm gonna see Nebraska's second district into the lean column now we're starting with the lean States and we typically I mean we've stayed in a likely column for right now with a couple of these states are some states and I still you have to be any put in the likely column but I do think that it is I mean we're gonna characterized America second as a lean state either so either way so that one's just gonna stay there but we'll finish off the likely states for right now because I just want to get that over with and then go into the lean state so we have a little bit more time to talk about it I'm looking at the state of Georgia state of Georgia I would consider a likely state under a Bernie versus Trump scenario I get it that this state hasn't really been the let's say closest state but I don't think that it's gonna be safe for Donald Trump a lot of people have made the argument that Georgia is still a Republican state I understand that but it's not gonna be going back to where it was 2004 you know when it was a safe Republican state because it's just not Georgia is getting closer because of demographic shifts and the way that these voters view Donald Trump personally and it's just not something that overall helps his campaign here but it still enough to keep it in like in the column so we're gonna go ahead and keep it likely for the Republican Party but going to the state of North Carolina I would say that one goes into the lean GOP column North Carolina I get it the state is always a swing stable Bernie Sanders isn't that candidate to bring out overwhelming droves of african-american voters to commence a number of these odors to vote for him he definitely does a little bit better amongst the white working-class which we'll see in just a moment but looking at the state of Nevada that one would go into the lean Democratic column that's just you know the way it is right now in Nevada is typically a democratic state regardless and they actually underestimate Democrats in a lot of their polling data which is really interesting to me looking at the state of Arizona a new poll came out today showing Arizona plus 9/4 Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders obviously it's going to narrow up I mean also that one shows Bernie Sanders with only 36% of the vote and Donald Trump at 45 leaving a whole whopping around you know I believe possibly 20% undecided voters which is absolutely insane that's just not a good number to gauge an election poll but again things do change and I do think that Arizona's going to narrow down into a lean Republican state as for Bernie Sanders he's gonna do pretty well in the state of New Hampshire I see that one going as a likely state same thing with the Maine's Maine at large and I actually do think that Bernie Sanders could possibly flip Maine's second district I do think about his northern appeals definitely gonna do well there and I think that he's not gonna neglect it the same way Hillary Clinton did in 2016 and take it for granted especially coming from a state like Vermont the Northeast is just second home to him looking at the state of Ohio though Ohio and Iowa I'm really really you know depending back on force for that one I would say the state of Florida as of right now would be a tilt Republican state that one is definitely going to go back and forth but hasn't right now I would say he's a tilt tilt Republican state as for some democratic states in Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania I'm all gonna characterize as likely States now the reason behind that is number one Donald rubs or a ting has not changed much here and it has always been underwater number two looking at the 2018 election data it is not at all a good sign with a number of flips in some House races a number of governor holds the number of governor flips a number of Senate holds it just looks very very good for the Democratic Party I remember there's no Scots and it's a ring court election recently but again that's not presidential election turnout and that also doesn't include a candidate that is so so unpopular in this state itself that in pertaining to lead the state of Wisconsin that the electorate is going to come out in droves against that candidate also 2016 is going to be a very very good lead-up to the 2020 lecture in terms of turnout matched presidential turnout in the 2018 midterms but based off turnout eight years ago which means that it's gonna be pretty much overwhelming in 2020 now looking at these high energy states the state of Ohio in the States states of Ohio in the states of Iowa as of right now I do think that Donald Trump can narrowly win the Buckeye State Ohio right now is going to be a tilt state I do I am arguing between tilt and lean I do think that Ohio is gonna stay in the Republican column but I do think that is going to be exceptionally close after the state of Iowa though Bernie Sanders number one is doing better and polling data there it's not super accurate as of where it's taking right now but it's also interesting that we have data from there and IO I think that there's going to narrowly go for Bernie Sanders and again Bernie Sanders campaign strategy definitely works in a number of these states I do think that he's going to a go to a number the see as a Hillary Clinton did not which is definitely going to help his campaign he does say he's gonna do a 50-state campaign he's probably not going to in all reality because you can't focus on Montana as much as you do in Florida and expect to win a presidential election especially being a Democrat but that pretty much finalizes this electoral map 285 electoral votes for Bernie Sanders and 253 for Donald Trump Bernie Sanders effectively winning this election flipping back to the states of Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania Highway and Maine's second district now again thank you guys for watching this video by the way if you want to see any videos in the future 2020 election predictions 2020 data covering if I'm there's no polling RealClearPolitics that is something that and there's a poll that's out there that you want me to cover and want me to go through go ahead and comment it down below I will be reading a lot of these comments again I'm so sorry for being gone for the past two weeks but again I'm back now and we're gonna try to do daily uploads so thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I'll see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

32 Responses

  1. Dude, you are delusional, Trump is the favorite by every measure. and since Joe Biden can´t help himself , and will keep groping little girls, as he did last week, he will pretty much tank any chance he still has.

  2. WE already know that Trump, if nothing changes, will receive about 385 Electoral College Votes, ( the main reason that Dems want to do away with the Electoral College Votes).

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  4. Democrats learn from 2016 these polls and bullshit predictions mean absolutely nothing. Hillary Clinton lost in an embarrassing landslide defeat and the polls gave her a 98% chance of winning.


  6. Your math is old, just like the never-trump movement began using the old paradigm that the establishment would pick and choose the candidate… and that was Jeb Bush. I did not see the Trump phenomenon until it was clear to me why people were moving towards him… do you not think that momentum will be diminished. Think about it… the main stream media with 95% negative coverage has not been able to drive Trumps approval below 40%, and those 40% polls when you read down into the internal demographics they have skewed data samples. Bernie will do well with the millennials because they have been fully indoctrinated through the publish schools. However, what you forget is the Monster Vote… the hidden vote that elected Trump. The difference in 2020 is the Democrats will not be able to hide their election fraud like they did in 2016 and 2018 since the decree that prohibited Republican poll watchers from doing anything when bus loads of illegal voters showed up at the polls. Plus Judicial Watch successfully sued California to purge its voter roles. North Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Tennessee have passed laws to purge their voter roles. I see Florida is about to do the same. If 2020 goes to Burnie it will be a demographic change election, not an election over ideas. Freedom and prosperity will win over socialism and state collectivism all the time in free elections.

  7. November 2020
    All who don’t want Trump, raise your hand.
    All who don’t want Biden, raise your hand.
    Oh ! Looks like we’ll have a runoff.

  8. Everyone above 38 was around to see the Soviet Socialism total colapse.
    This is a huge percentage of the current electorate.
    Don’t underestimate living history.
    Trump will win 2020 simply because America wants success.

  9. With ballot harvesting in Maricopa County by the Democrats, nobody should assume AZ is going to go red ever again. What did the Republican governor do about ballot harvesting in AZ? Not a damn thing.

  10. Makes sense you are still in high school, your political knowledge and historical grasp of U.S. politics is poor at best. I would suggest you to focus on jacking off to that creeper, Brian Stelter on his failing show on CNN, Reliable Sources. Have fun loser!

  11. Love these. Any chance of a hypothetical AOC vs Trump? I saw a right winger sim that fantasybowled her to an extreme win and got me wondering how a real matchup would look.

  12. Trump is in trouble as a Democratic presidential candidate will win back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania possibly Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona based on tarrifs, treatment of John McCain, and now these radical anti-abortion laws can peel off independent support for Republicans across the board.

  13. Bernie Sanders 2020
    Lots of work to do. The debates should kick things off. People still need to learn what Medicare For All really is. Lots of misinformation as usual.

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