2020 Election Prediction | Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump | June 6th, 2019



hey guys welcome back today's video today is Thursday June 6th 2019 and today we're gonna be looking at a 2020 election prediction between senator Bernie Sanders and president Donald Trump so I lasted in one of these predictions about a month ago and not much to be completely honest has changed I'm gonna talk while I fill in the map because a lot of you complained about how late I started the video last time so I'm gonna go ahead and fill in all the safe states for right now while I'm talking and if we're looking at the overall state of the country the state of the country has pretty much stayed very consistent over the past couple of months to be completely honest with you yes things do cycle through the news but again those things only lasts about 24 to 48 hours and yeah there are some stories that definitely do take a little bit more presents over others but generally there are still the same type of stories that we see whether it's Donald Trump talking about immigration or things to do with Republicans or Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden announcing their presidential election campaigns are taking new position on campaign issues we see things like that all the time so right now when we're looking at I guess the date itself today is June 6 2019 this is the last Bernie Sanders Donald trum prediction that I will be doing before the first Democratic presidential election debate which is around I believe it is June 25th of June 26th but I actually June 6 or 27th I will be live-streaming during those debates if there's – if there's like an undercard debate or just the one but I do think that those are gonna be very very interesting these are very early debates I am personally not too surprised considering how early these candidates have announced just the fact that the news media has somehow adapted to them because generally they keep most of the things that they do the same regardless of how early people announced the campaign but we're about to I think 18 candidates in the debate stage so that should be pretty interesting Bernie Sanders a very popular politician in his home state there are many many many poll numbers that do show Bernie Sanders is quote-unquote the most popular politician nationwide yes he is to an extent in terms of I guess politician but not amongst Democratic candidates Joe Biden has a higher approval rating than Bernie some extent Kratts which I do think could be a little surprising because that could possibly eliminate him from the general election completely through the Democratic primary but Bernie Sanders right now is one of the more popular politicians but that doesn't exactly always turn into votes Donald Trump is probably going to carry states like Arizona Texas and Georgia regardless of the candidates regardless of how likable these candidates are because of history these states themselves have been historically Republican states and yes there are changes here Arizona recently went blue Georgia and Texas definitely got a lot closer to 2018 but doesn't necessarily mean that these Democratic candidates are somehow going to do what statewide candidates cannot there's a reason why a lot of these elections were so close it is very hard for the Democratic Party to find a candidate that can appeal to the right the white working-class the sorry not the Rust Belt the South Florida Georgia type voters the Sun Belt voters in Texas New Mexico Arizona it's just very hard to grasp that perfect candidate and throw them out there and expect them to win in all of these states that's why they sacrificed some states in exchange for others the Democratic Party typically does that among also the Republican Party but if we're looking around Donald Trump is probably gonna hold on to a number of these states and they said I was talking about Texas states like Texas in Arizona and Georgia those are states that I think that Donald trum gonna carry so I'm actually gonna characterize those now I'm Arizona I do think will be the closest of them all and my reasoning being number one it flipped to the Democrats in the Senate race which was a pretty surprising to me I did personally expect it just because of the way that the the data was showing in terms of early voting numbers but it was you know if you had asked me six months before the election I probably would not have been so inclined to say that this one would flip and you know holds or gains be in Missouri in Montana and sorry not Missouri in Montana Missouri and Florida states like that would surprise me if Arizona had flipped but those states say the same pretty interesting but Arizona yes I do think will be the closest followed by Georgia and then of course Texas that's just how the rating goes that was Donald up at 190 electoral votes so again he's in about 80 electoral votes away from reelection Bernie Sanders I believe is 88 electoral votes away from being elected again this is Bernie Sanders his second time running so he's going to have a little bit of an uphill climb and there were a Democratic primary but once he gets over that hump it looks like he has a pretty good shot of the presidency if you go ahead and look over at the rear of Clear Politics data Bernie Sanders actually leads the Donald Trump nationwide in terms of the popular sorry about that I Drive my microphone but in terms of statewide voting it doesn't exactly spell out super good news he underperforms Joe Biden in every single toss-up State and ties with him I believe in one and that is the state of Michigan I'm still good numbers though not knocking him for there it's just not knocking him there and just saying that the whole argument about electability is definitely going to get brought up back again as it was with Hillary Clinton and as I just talked about the state of Michigan that is a state that went to Bernie Sanders by 12% of the most recent poll I don't think that's gonna be the final number probably around 6 7 % that's what I think is gonna go for Bernie Sanders right now I'm gonna put that one in the likely column for Bernie Sanders I think of the Rust Belt definitely is gonna do a little bit better now a little bit better a lot a bit better with Bernie Sanders has the candidate compared to Hillary Clinton he's definitely not going to ignore these voters he definitely paid a lot of attention to them during the Democratic primaries even when he was underwater in Michigan by 20% in polling he ended up winning the very next day after a poll was taken that showed him losing about 20% you know absolutely big upsets in these states and that doesn't always come over to general elections and I'm not thinking I was gonna be a huge upset but I do think Bernie Sanders is gonna do well in those states including that state like Minnesota as well you can definitely see Bernie Sanders doing pretty well across the rust but if we look at Pennsylvania and Wisconsin I actually am surprised they chose to put the Democratic National Convention in the state of Wisconsin instead of Texas Texas I think would have been a lot better in terms of bringing out voters there and inspiring voters there but I get it because they had lost the Rust Belt in the past and also just makes sense logistically for the Democratic primary for Democratic Party I would understand why they would choose Wisconsin but also they could be giving up a few really good opportunity to focus on Texas when you know states like I mean the years like 2024 in 2028 are going to be rapidly approaching and we're gonna see how that eventual outcome goes in favor of the Democrats or in favor of the GOP so Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are also gonna join Bernie Sanders and be likely calm so now he shot ahead of Donald Trump at 3 not 300 238 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 190 there are some states on here that you can already expect to go in favor of the GOP a state being the state of North Carolina we know that this state is probably gonna be a lean state and possibly could be a likely state depending on the candidate I think in a Bernie Sanders scenario the Donald wood narrowly carry the state by narrowly I mean 1 to 3% nearing you know to 30% in my opinion that state itself is pretty pretty close Donald Trump is gonna do well though you really can't expect Bernie Sanders to have a lot of minority turnout he's definitely going to do a little bit better on appealing to the white working-class compared to the african-american voters which couldn't be a surprise to some but if you look at this Democratic primary performance he isn't too popular in the south either even against someone like Joe Biden and if we're looking North Carolina it's probably gonna be Republicans day regardless of who the Democratic nominee is but there are some democratic states that I'm leaving out now states like Virginia and New Mexico that are gonna be considered likely States and these are both states that went for Hillary Clinton back in 2016 by over 5% you can't really expect anything different from Bernie Sanders unless somehow another shift in the demographics in New Mexico or Virginia both of those you can expect to go by the likely mark by a likely margin in favor of the Democratic Party so that puts the Democrats at 256 Donald's from a 205 leaves a total of 77 toss-up electoral votes now if you look these are generally the same toss-up States there are some states that are still going to be in favor of the democratic party states of Colorado I would say that one would be a lean sorry likely democratic state and again even though it is likely does not mean that this is going to absolutely go for Bernie Sanders only ones that I can absolutely say we'll go to were the Democratic nominee regardless of who it is are all these safe states those are the only ones that I'm 100% sure of obviously things do change polling numbers change approval ratings change and we're looking at the scenarios the events the news changes a lot of things can change the outcome of elections but as of right now this is how I see it going but good news for Donald Trump I do expect it to win in the state of Florida by a lean margin though there are a lot more voters out in the voting rolls I do not expect Bernie Sanders to do super well in the state of Florida Florida definitely has been taking a little bit more of a turn in favor of the right it's not out of reach but the state of Florida still I do think we'll go to Donald Trump now put some at 2:34 Bernie Sanders at 265 Donald Trump I do think could carry Nebraska 2nd district I think that's gonna be a lean margin but Bernie Sanders I do think would carry the state of New Hampshire by a likely margin and this solidifies his win with may not large being a likely margin Maine's first district being safe and Maine's second district being lean that puts Bernie Sanders to 273 electoral votes effectively making him the next president of the United States right now Donald's approval ratings actually doing a little bit better so you can expect his personal performance she's just very just a little bit in favor a little bit more in favor of him Ohio right now I do expect to go to Donald Trump by a lean margin I think this is going to be close but I don't expect Bernie Sanders to I just went out but what I do expect them to edge out is a state of Nevada I expect that one to go by a lean margin in favor of Bernie Sanders that puts him at 279 Donald Trump I do think will narrowly carry the state of Iowa I think that one's going to come down to the wire between both of those candidates and we're gonna definitely see a lot more revisions on the state of Iowa and a number of these other lean states regardless of which party that they're lean for so that wraps up today's video Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump with 279 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 259 again this is not an absolute predictions numbers definitely do change and this is just my pure analytical point of view on this matchup so thank you guys for watching this video comment down suggestions below and I will see you all tomorrow

Maurice Vega

44 Responses

  1. No way the citizens of the rust belt vote for a socialist. We are socially left leaning but without a doubt fiscally conservative. In this scenario I would see pa Wisconsin and Minnesota all going red.

  2. Texas has a very large democrat population. I think ultimately it will go to Trump, but I wouldn't be 100% certain, especially after a Democrat almost dethroned their favorite reptilian

  3. Let's be honest for a second, people go on and on about Bernie's appeal to the white working class voter. If he had even half the appeal to that demographic that he supposedly has, he would flip Montana, Idaho, the Dakotas, and Wyoming with ease. These 5 states are a vast majority white, and the average person in each falls into the median income of the United state. These states are the definition of white working class, yet no predictions have burnie beating trump in any of these states. Best explanation is that he doesn't appeal to these people in the slightest, and those making predictions say he does because they want to predict Bernie winning.

  4. The crowds say it all Trump will take 2020 easy fake polls are not worth even following the crowds say it all Trump Wins Biden has already been chosen for the Dem nominee it's already a done deal!

  5. I recommend looking at the Morning Consult monthly polls. Trump is exactly even in Alaska, and he is only between +1-3 points in Kansas, North Dakota, and Nebraska. There are huge shifts in the Midwest going on right now

  6. Nope Trump is 100% gonna win Wisconsin. And Trump would win the one district in Maine. And he’d win Iowa in the lean almost likely column. Stop using polls because more than half are very bias. It’s gonna be a repeat of 2016.

  7. You really think Iowa and Florida will go Trump? Surprised. I don’t think it’ll be this close, Biden’s numbers will drop after the first debate and Bernie will Cruze from there. I think he’ll win the electoral with over 320+ votes

  8. There is a lot more people who are going to vote for donald trump then u think they can’t say it out loud because they done want to get punched, doxxed or fired from there job most people who like these democrats will not even vote some one from California

  9. I would be very cautious giving Wisconsin to Bernie Sanders in a likely Margin and I would give it to him in a leaning margin at most only because of Trump's unfavorability. Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by an average of 8% in Wisconsin in the final 2016 polls and she lost it by almost to point, that's an almost 9% shift Donald Trump managed to accomplish from what the polls were showing. On Real Clear Politics Bernie Sanders on the political spreadsheet is only leading Donald Trump by an average of 4% in the state of Wisconsin which is a much smaller lead than the 8 point lead Hillary Clinton had and she ended up losing the state to Donald Trump. Grant you Bernie Sanders would almost certainly visit the state and give it more attention than Hillary who literally never stepped foot in it once and he did beat Hillary in the 2016 Democratic primary in Wisconsin but from a polling perspective with recent data giving Bernie Sanders Wisconsin in a likely margin is not accurate. He might be able to win the state but it would be more a toss-up for both candidates as of now.

  10. Why do you think Bernie can beat Trump in Pennsylvania? He couldn't even beat Hillary Clinton, and that was when Bernie was at his height and people thought Trump would tank the economy.

  11. I'm definitely not an expert, but I do believe that Morning Consult polls show Sanders leading Democrats among Latinos, so if Joe Biden has a shot at winning Arizona for the reasons a Democrat could win Arizona, I believe Bernie Sanders also has those same opportunities to win the state.

  12. Looks like there's a lot of Russian trolls here trying to divide the Democrats. Gameplan is to not pay attention to them and we vote for whoever our eventual nominee is or we will see a two-term trump. And frankly the US cannot deal with him another 4 years. If trump gets another four years he will get to intall 2 more conservative Supreme Court justices and our nation will be in big trouble for the next 30 to 40 years.

  13. Texas would be safe
    Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Ohio will all be likely.
    Democratic voters in the south aren’t progressives. Bernie will loose all of those states heavily in the primary and Bernie Sanders has no appeal to black voters.
    Bernie is crazy! All of the Democratic candidates are. Trump will win, PERIOD!

  14. CNN Debate in July will probably be 3 hours on both days. 6pm-9pm. Because they'd want to expand audience onto digital platforms. But even so the total views will be no higher than 10mil per night .

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